SRRTA22

I saw lightning in Bayonne all the from that storm out over eastern long island...crazy

We've had thunderstorm chances for what seems like the last ten days..going on two weeks..it's obvious we're in a pattern conductive for convection. 

I think some of you forget how for the last two summers were basically bone dry. 

In a pattern like this , you'll get your rain unless you live on long island

Walking is terrible but it's not bad at all just sitting. Nice breeze too. 

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

wow saturday night

Wow tonight too...that storm is trying to bow out right now

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bring on winter

This summer is going by at light speed it feels like...the fact it's already mid July is insane to me

It's not like we had Ida drop 8 inches of rain on us a couple of years ago...

Missed another one by miles. Absolutely crazy how common these "1000" year events are becoming. 

Just now, uofmiami said:

 

Oops last I checked was last night...I stand corrected 

27 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

You realize Upton basically covers LI?

L.I wasn't in the flood watch brotha lol 

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Well that line coming through will probably put me close to 2”

Haha your hoods been killing it this summer

3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

As expected, the overnight potential rapidly declining. I wish Upton would use more nowcasting

It rained though and parts of Upton's forecast area did receive 2"+ Upton's forecast area isn't just your backyard  

The real answer... subsidence due to that beast of a line that ran through snj. NYC for the most part got caught in sinking air due to all the convection to our west and south. 

No lie , I saw one lightning flash and checked the radar, and all the returns went *poof*

I'm convinced that one lightning flash killed everything 

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

If this system was further east it would be an identical situation to ida.

People were screaming bust then too , until the convection in the Delmarva completely destroyed NYC metro later that evening...

hopefully this isn't a repeat 

6 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Radar presentation resembles a lot like Ida to me.

Ha, I was just about to put the same thing! Very reminiscent of Ida. 

13 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Same here.  Almost like conjunctivitis 

Wow , had to reply to this. It's been relatively dry here in my neck of the woods in NJ , but I've noticed similar symptoms for the past week or so. Feels like a little swelling or the feeling of something stuck in the bottom of my eye.

Maybe from all the smoke? 

46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the 18z run did a good job while the later runs moved it too far north. That shouldn't happen with a highly skilled very short range model, but we know that the HRRR is very erratic at times. 

Exactly , the 18z absolutely nailed the earlier convection, granted it was a tiny bit south with the line but that's expected... Tiny storm(around 5pm) set up a prominent outflow boundary in the area. 

Unfortunately we just have timing issues, just like Monday this weekend could've been a significant outbreak for our area if the timing was right

@LongBeachSurfFreakthat one little storm around 5pm helped bring this line a little further north haha 

Stop following off hour runs of the HRRR guys

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mt holly has a warning out now

It's north of us

5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I’ll probably get close to 2” of rain today 

Congrats brotha , these negative nancies kill me 

Lol I just got smacked and NYC will too

I see a line in pa with numerous convection firing out in front of it. Radar doesn't look that bad , ha

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem's been looking good. Hrrr stays more to the north

I like the 18z run of the HRRR , damn near spot on with the activity that's happening now. With the atmosphere relatively untouched and outflow boundaries in the area, I think we see some good boomers tonight in and around NYC.

That's one heck of a outflow boundary around EWR. Could help us later on 

12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Downburst???

For sure, could see it well on the terminal radar out of jfk.