RVASnowLover
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Everything posted by RVASnowLover
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Could be in for some icy days coming up
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The way the models have been well see if anything like that happens
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That’s the way to go at this range. I still like to look at others just because. I would probably take a blend of 3K and 12K NAM and go to 2-5
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So you’re saying there’s a chance! Even DT just came out and said something is wonky with the euro. It’s usually rock solid but for some reason it’s been pretty poor for our region
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24 hours ago this was looking like a significant snow/ice storm. Now it looks like a light event. Euro has not been reliable at all this winter. DT is looking silly now putting out that map yesterday with 8-10 and having to backtrack
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Euro is bad too. Even more south and dry About an inch in the city more down Petersburg because they get better rates. 1-4 with maybe some ice seems like a good forecast
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Seems reasonable since models have lessened amounts
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We’re also in a very active pattern right now with something Thursday night, Saturday and maybe Tuesday so maybe the models are just struggling to handle it all. I don’t know
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At this point we should have a general idea but we don’t have that right now. It is rare here to go from rain to ice to snow but it’s possible.
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I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen. Around 30 hours until start time and there is no model agreement
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Gfs still likes an ice storm
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This is possible depending on which model you use. The 12z NAM nest was all over the place
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I’m not sure which is better either to be honest. Based on 12z meso data we could get anywhere between 1-5
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12K NAM gives us 6”. Geez what a discrepancy amongst the NAM models
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3K NAM is absolutely weak dry sauce. Maybe an inch if that. Granted the NAM has not been the most accurate for our area
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Thanks. Waiting to see what 12z suite says but starting to look like a 3-5 snow event which honestly isn’t all that bad
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Anyone have 6z euro?
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00z follows the 18z euro. It’s south but dryer. 3-5 across the metro
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The UK out?
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Not bad. Little conservative on the snow accumulation for Richmond but makes sense since there is not model agreement on it
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Seems like DT is following the 12z UK and Euro. Let’s see what those models show at 00z
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Those are two different NAM models. One is 3K and other is 12K. They use different algorithms. That 3K one you posted matches the 3K on pivotal
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Exactly. 18z NAM was big hit for us. Now not so much. Can’t go off a model with just one run
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I wouldn’t go that far yet. Euro is just colder than the NAM which is why euro goes south. NAM is not as strong with the CAD so we get rain to snow
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Kuckera only gives us around 3” on the 3K NAM
