SnowLover22

now if the 18z euro can hold the line or even trend better lol.

Just now, snowfan said:

 

Share notes and let us know the outcome.

Never said it looked better or worse. Just said it looks nothing like the euro.

lets just say the gfs won't get it done this run. The changes are laughable at h5 vs the 12z euro. They are worlds apart.

uh oh....

 Seriously you would think it would not just impact the euro though.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

They are 33-50% greater than pivotal 

???

no they aren't.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Did you hear?  Betty White died

your timing is impeccable lol. Today would've been her 100th birthday. 

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Has a weekend storm but it’s suppressed and on the Carolina coastline this run. Okay with me.

would not take too much of an adjustment at range. Verbatim goes negative too late by a little bit.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see

as I said before key thing to look out for is what happens out west. The energy does not cut off, it phases with the northern stream ala CMC and Euro. 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What time frame are you talking?  Because comparing the NAM to the other models that have the storm, there's no way to tell if the baja low is gonna cut off yet at that time frame.  I could be looking at the wrong thing too.

compare h5 84 hours gfs to h5 84 hours NAM. Then see what happens on the gfs. You can surmise the nam was heading in the same direction.

IMO, figuring out what happens near Baja California is key. The 6z gfs is a miss because it cuts off and leaves energy behind there. FWIW, the 12z NAM would've been a miss as  well. Leaves energy behind. The 6z euro would have been good most likely. Very similar to 0z does not leave energy behind at 90 hours. Only 84-90 hours out to figuring it out. Something has to give!

Hopefully im not the only person still awake...

EPS

close up

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

We've been feeling that in every one of your posts

the screen name checks out.

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I bought a new ariens last year that I love. Haven't started it yet this year. If it looks like a decent event I'll have to start her up. Things a beast

 

I was in Hamburg just recently.... Hamburg, Germany that is

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Looks close to the GFS. WNY gonna get the best this run.

Damn I might need to drive up on Sunday. Original plan was to be in Upstate by next Friday. At the very least should be a solid snowpack by the time I get there on Friday after the storm (assuming nothing changes)

Short Pump does well lol.

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

For all the uncertainty in the ensembles, GFS OP looks like it;s headed for the same solution as 18z. Nothing major changed through 84hrs.

Significantly more confluence in the NE. what are you talking about?

9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Not liking what I see from the gfs so far out east. Maybe something else can balance it out. Could be even further west. 

I take back what I said. Ocean storm is phasing more effectively with the TPV allowing for lower heights over the NE. Not exactly sure why the phasing helps to allow for lower heights but that is the result.

Not liking what I see from the gfs so far out east. Maybe something else can balance it out. Could be even further west. 

for the little that it is worth, the icon is a hit(sort of).

If the run would've went out further, the 18z euro would have been a bit further east vs the 18z gfs. It was clear early on. 

Just now, BristowWx said:

19:50 I believe 

Positive signs so far. The ocean storm slower to move out of the way.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That minor a change is noise at that range on an op. But go back 36 hours when I think the storm was as it’s southern most point on models and look at how much the SW has slowed. I agree there has been some weakening of the flow up top but I think the slower progression is the larger influencer. 
 

Say morning the SW is over western KS when 36 hours ago guidance already has it entering the Ohio valley bumping into that confluence and getting squashed.  The SW has also trended stronger and is digging much further west. That change seems a lot more significant than the relatively minor relaxation to the NE. Let’s put it this way, if that SW was as weak as models had it 4-5 runs ago and positively tilted over Indiana instead of cutting off over Kansas Sat morning I am pretty sure it would still be a non event even with the slightly less confluent flow. 

Do you find it strange that the OP has consistently been further west than its own ensembles. Could the OP be seeing something different. Not sure what I would give more weight to at the moment.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

How far west can she come? Lol, gonna be wild 

something tells me congrats Pittsburg this run but lets see . Don't like what I see so far. 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA).

Someone from a different forum said it quite well. The icon is a miss because of what happens near Boise around HR 60-66.