AFranklin88

6z euro holds the trend as well - looks good thru 144

What does the NBM take into account - all of the ensembles?

That’s a significant improvement on the NAM and 3k

UKIE with another good track - ups totals for most in east. Feels like everything meeting in that 4-8 range for Central Valley

They may be right and the NAM scores a huge coup, but it just trended towards all other modeling in 6z suite. While others (gfs for one) are doubling down and rap/hrrr seem to make a big move onboard. baffling move by MRX in that AFD

Feels like modeled qpf and snowfall in AR trended down earlier today and now significantly up in 0z suite. May not mean anything but an observation

GEFS 6z looks good for valley, appears be nice track for low and clustered pretty tight

will be interesting to see if decent rates stay in valley until after peak heating. could see accumulations really go up late afternoon if so. radar looks healthy .

it has that look and feel this morning. Central Valley - I think we’re in for a big one .

Main events gets started soon… .

I don’t think that RAP view is the full storm total unless I’m missing something .

NBM holding steady and qpf increasing on high res mods would be great trends .

Interesting how different that is than the graphics from MRX this morning .

Winter storm watch just posted for plateau and Central Valley north. Didn’t expect it this early honestly and a good sign even with odd runs of the NAM. have to think GFS/Euro/NBM weighing heavily.

Admittedly, not an expert but I thought the 6z RGEM and 12k/3k NAM looked better for the central valley on tropical tidbits. Nowcast time anyways probably but just a question for those who know better .