Grayman

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm sick of 9-10 days out! But something along those lines could definitely work. I think we will have plenty of moisture to work with, just need that cold to press hard and early as the moisture rides the boundary. I don't feel good about getting anything on the back side of the cold, which appears transient for now.

Me too. We are all such weenies and it rarely works out .

18z Gfs says welcome back weather weenies. 

All these fancy words you guys use and analogs and I can be right 99 percent of time just saying you’re not going to see snow in The Southeast which is what we all are looking for.  The weenies have been crushed hence the lack of post on here. I’m a recovering weenie that enjoys cliff diving and severe storms in winter . Mods delete this if it needs to be posted in the sanitarium thread. Lol 

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A once in 125 year series of deep SE winter storms that suddenly appears on a GFS run out 12-14 days gone on the next run? I'm absolutely shocked and stunned! 

  But it is entertaining to see these fantasies. The extreme inaccuracy of models that far out allows for crazy fantasies to appear every once in a while.

  Based on the timing of the upcoming SSW and considering ensembles, I'm expecting this period and a bit beyond to be dominated by near to warmer than normal. The start of a cold dominated pattern related to the SSW would probably not be before ~Feb 10th at the earliest based on analogs (shown on maps I posted yesterday). Around then winter will most likely be restarting! Far from over imo!

Dang, your facts getting in the way of my weenie emotions lol. Hope your right. Thanks for all the info you post. We need to have a contest on here to spice things up while we wait .

biggest weenie

most negative

most informative 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yeah, like 1899 that 12Z GFS fantasy winter storm was all the way down to (and past) Phil @pcbjr in Hogtown/Gainesville with ~1/4" of ZR. Unlike 1899, this fantasy is from a series of lows and a large portion of the heaviest SE US qpf is actually ZR with some sleet. The precip in N FL, and SE GA/SC/NC is nearly 100% ZR/IP with the 850 mb 0C line to the NW. It would be a massive/historic icestorm for much of that area but fortunately it isn't real.

Gone on 18z.  Winter is over . 26 inches to severe on 1 run. Useless model 

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

We gotta stop letting it get our hopes up like this.

Yes. No support from ensembles so it’s likely another goofy Gfs run. This weenie will watch the 18z come in though lol 

Oh my 12z GFS. Here come the weenies in 3,2,1 

48 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

I don't need to remind most of you that 92-93 was a snoozefest until 3/12/1993.  Things can change in a hurry.  Not to that level mind you but I am not giving up yet.

Your west of Winston so I don’t blame you but I have little hope in south central NC. I’m marginal even with the best setup. I actually cliff dove in Late December.  Best to dive then of you just surprised your not stuck like a roasted weenie.  Im still a weenie just a realistic one.  

Why is it so quiet ? You weenies having a cookout and didn’t invite me? Or are you cliff hunting cause the diving should began soon 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the EURO solution tor the 26th verified and we (central NC) rained with that track and strength of LP, go ahead and hang it up for the winter 

The storm will make its own cold air, system will track further south, HP will trend stronger, SE ridge will finally break down. I like extra mustard on my weenie. 

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well, looks like the mighty Euro and EPS caved to the model that shall not be named 

Cliff diving party at location to be named later. Who’s in? It’s over weenies 

8 hours ago, Jmoon said:

Grayman, you better be up. You got at least some flurries or light snow headed your way believe it or not in the next few hours. Hope your up to see it.

I didn’t man . I crashed . Ugh 

52 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

NEVER!!!

Upstate , I’m a Gamecock fan so Im use to quitting. Lol. Fab February. Storms will make on cold air and track 500 miles south 

All weenies please report to your closest cliff. Let’s dive and get this over with.  

Time to start spraying for weeds . 

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not to be "that guy", as my snowfall average is put to shame by a number of areas in the US, but not sure why anyone in the southeast outside of the mountains would invest much time in winter weather.  It just doesn't happen often enough.  As an example, I looked up Raleigh and they average like mid single digit snowfall per season.  An average like that means it will usually snow at some point.  Just taking the wintry weather as it comes seems like it would save a lot of grief.

It’s the chase for us. Most of us are weenies are heart. It’s get tough and frustrating 

Winter is over fellow weenies. We should rename this place “The Southeast Weenie Club” . Patten change my butt . 

With our luck lately the operational run will be right and EPS wrong. Cliff diving will begin soon if so. 

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS and Canadian= fail

Yes. CMC low was about a 1000 miles north. Who Can host a weenie roast? 

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 12Z EPS is a "west of 85" storm.  Anything east of 85 is a trace to half inch at best.

Yep. If I lived in Northwest NC I would be watching . I live in South Central NC (eastern peidmont) where we will take our cold rain and like it . Good luck my fellow weenies. 

54 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

I'm biting. Signal is their for wintry precipitation.

1/13 is usually when the Piedmont gets it's chance.

Will keep the weenies warm on the flat top 

 

I’m not biting yet but keep one warm for me. As I will bite it it’s still there over next two runs. I can come get a weenie after I cliff dive at last moment 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z GFS looks downright interesting 

Can we have a weenie roast at your house? 

Thanks for all the input. I punted until February anyway because you can’t just waste a late December pattern like that and put up a goose egg. I enjoy your fact based posting . Happy New Year. February will save the board lol

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP 

I thought you cliff dove? I’m not going to get sucked back in by long term pattern change again. I dove also and it hurt. Sorry if this belongs in Sanitarium 

Too not two lol