Hyphnx

GFS has the R/S line further South.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

If you’re south of RIC, I’d maybe consider the Southeast forum. Otherwise, our rooting interests are likely to not align.

We are talking 10 miles south.

Just now, BristowWx said:

I think you guys will do ok north of the city. Cold airmass and ideal position.  East on 64 toward Wmbrg things will be dicey however.  Just my take.  

I'm just south of the city. Expecting tons of ice/mixing in my backyard. Models are starting to come to an agreement that this could be another hit for RIC but DC seeing a good amount, too

RGEM puts RIC back in play

21 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said:

Any idea of timing on this system?  I have to drive the family from Raleigh to Richmond on Saturday, leaving Raleigh around 1:30pm.  Any thoughts?  Thanks for your help!!

Should be okay, Sunday morning seems to be the brunt.

2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

18Z NAM looks like an ice fest. 

This isn't good

Oh no....

6 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Agree. I think the biggest reason why we didn't see a changeover in RVA with the December storm was that we saw heavy bands come through which kept the atmosphere cold enough. Need the same again. 

Going to be another classic nowcasting storm

3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Possible the models don't have a good handle on the cold air. Models are known for downplaying CAD. We'll see. 

I remember reading earlier that cold air was not an issue and the long range models have a hard time seeing it. I'm pretty hopeful for 4-6+ in RVA. I wouldn't mind working from home on Monday... 

It's been so cold, hard to believe it won't be cold enough for an all snow event. But then again, it's not even here, yet

New EURO actually has about 4-6" of snow depth in RIC. Seems like an increase to me. Maybe the mixing won't be as bad

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Looking at the upper levels and surface plots, this run was really close to getting good coastal action up into DC. One more little bump and...well...you know

RIC will be all rain and DC will get dumped on

2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Not looking good for us Richmond folks, especially when the 20-30 mile shift north happens in real time like always. 

The ice threat seems to be increasing

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yoda, this is snowing lightly?

 

Rgem likes to get precip happy so it's likely too high imho

 

Eta: meteo goes out to hr 54 right? If so scratch this

That ice threat...

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Here use this.  It will be all snow... so most of MD get 2 inches at 10:1 which the ratio should be higher... everyone looks at the snowfall maps as if they are the only thing.

 

So RIC is 10"?

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Ty! Almost seems like two parts right?

Correct. When looking at the dew points for RIC I was almost in denial that mixing would occur. I still think it should be an all snow event.

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It looks like the timing is a little later-well after dark on Saturday or even Sunday morning. Yes?

From LWX: Forecast Discussion

An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest overnight
Friday night into Saturday. An area of surface low pressure will
form over Texas in response to this upper-level feature, and
move into the southeastern U.S by Saturday night. Ahead of the
main surface low pressure system moving across the southeast,
another weak area of upper-level energy will be moving across
our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, which will
provide some extra lift ahead of the main system. At the same 
time, a strong surface high will funnel cold air in from the 
north, while southwesterly flow above the surface overruns the 
wedge of cold air. This combination of moisture and enhanced
lift will result in a period of snow starting late Saturday 
morning, continuing into Saturday night. Snow associated with
the main surface low looks to move in early Sunday morning and
continue throughout the day on Sunday. 

On Sunday, the primary surface low pressure system will slide 
by to our south through the Carolinas. The precipitation from 
this system will stretch northward and affect areas as far north
Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough for snow
for the entire duration of this system, so precipitation types
will not be an issue. Latest runs of the operational Euro and NAM
are in fairly good agreement that the low will move off the 
coast around Cape Hatteras, while the operational GFS took a
slightly more southern track. However, GEFS and EPS ensembles
seem to be in fairly good agreement that more closely resembles
that of the operational Euro and NAM. While some uncertainty
remains in terms of the exact track, it seems as though most
guidance is in decent agreement. 

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

12z 1/10/19 Euro “snow depth change”.

I'll take it, hope the temp warrants all snow and not this stupid mixing

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

A child vanishes in 6 inches of snow?

Last storm we got 12" that was in December.

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

The server may implode if happy hour GFS comes in strong.  Fingers crossed...

So far it's North

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

Icon fringes the northern folks

Okay... we don't need that much in RVA. I want my 18 month old to have fun and not vanish like last time

3 minutes ago, Beachin said:

I sense us about to be NAM'ED based off hour 57

NAM looks good! But it is.. the NAM

1 minute ago, Beachin said:

12z JMA

Praying for temps to hold below. Dew point looks to be about 27

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Why has the FV3 been running so slow last few days?  Govt shutdown?

I believe so

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Euro has been consistent and was also for 12/9 but not til 72 hours out for that one. FV3 and then the short range models handled 12/9 well also. Once short range came into range.

FV3 is running now. Barely. Might get the 18z GFS before the 12z FV3

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Not sure but that definitely will not be all rain now. It did shift more north and west however.

I'm pretty sure the short range have a better grasp on temperature so those totals could go back up.