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Hyphnx

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    February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

    Saturday storm is juicy. I would think it starts with a burst of snow over to heavy sleet. Looks like fun. 

     

    That's too much mix for Central VA. Do not need to be without power going into the week for those who do not have a whole house generator.

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    From AKQ

     

    Quote 
    
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EST Friday...

Clear and cold to start, with the sfc high pushing offshore
through the day. Quasi-zonal/downslope flow will actually allow
for a modest warm up on Saturday, and went a few degrees above
NBM inland. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40 at the coast,
low to some mid 40s inland on Saturday.

Clouds will quickly start filling in later Sat aftn/night, ahead
of next system digging from the mid-south across the Carolinas
Sat night. All eyes will turn to this feature Saturday night.
Lead shortwave shifts to the coast with initial slug of WAA-
induced overrunning moisture pushing across the mountains into
our area around and after midnight EST Sat night/early Sunday.
Models continue to point toward some light PCPN possible
earlier, but antecedent dry airmass will delay onset by a few
hours. In any case, model timing differences remain, with the
GFS trending toward the slower ECMWF, with the NAM/CMC in the
middle. Have nudged PoPs up into likely to categorical range
after midnight into Sunday morning toward that middle ground
solution, as it appears there will be sufficient moisture with
that initial WAA slug of moisture to bring some snow to much of
the area pre-dawn Sunday morning. Top-down tools yield snow/sleet
at the onset for most early Sun morning, w/wintry mix (IP/SN)
at onset even along the coast by daybreak Sunday with
wetbulbing.

Snow gradually goes over to a wintry mix (RA/SN/IP) as prominent
warm nose nudges in from the SW as the system approaches.
Exception appears as if it will be across far NW tier of zones,
where ECMWF/CMC and their member ensembles continue to show
high probs for Warning criteria snows, mainly along and N of a
FVX-RIC-XSA line. Nudged Storm Total Snow forecast to 4-6 inch
range north- northwest of the RIC metro area, with a maxima
along the Hwy 15 corridor in Louisa/Fluvanna counties. Lesser
totals for RIC /Tri-Cities area and points farther south, as
rain and sleet are likely to cut into totals considerably over
much of these areas (and especially points S/E). Accordingly,
also expect there will be a rather tight gradient as is typical
well inland. Regardless, this remains a tricky forecast with
rain likely over the southern portion of the area, snow over the
northern portion of the area, and mixed precip likely for much
of central and eastern VA (just inland from the coast). Bulk of
the precip is likely from 12Z Sunday to 00Z Monday.

Parent upper low crosses the area Sunday night into Monday,
with some additional light pcpn possible. Accumulating
precipitation will be largely over, but considerable clouds and
light rain/snow will be possible. Lows Sunday night in the mid
20s well inland to mid 30s SE.

     

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

    Yeah Its def hitting a brick wall if you look back of the storm  in Nashville  TN area and everything drifting south... to me the boarder or VA/NC somewhere around roanke rapids nc looks to be the sweet spot ..  Storm def looks to moving quickly ...  looks to be a little front running band headed to chester area is that producing anything?

    It is, working on getting live feed and pictures now.

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