Scarlet Pimpernel

45 minutes ago, jayyy said:

You’ve been known to do the same from time to time. You also cancelled winter like 5 days  MONTHS ago lol

Love ya Ji


.

FYP!!

42 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Also, everyone stop uttering the words B__ D__ in here. What the phuck is wrong with yall

Big Di*k?  Big Dog?  Birth Date?  Bull Durham?  A holiday celebrated in Great Britain the day after Christmas??  Don't know at all what you mean!!!

On 12/4/2024 at 4:09 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I considered coming out of retirement. 

To paraphrase LOTR:

Weenies:  "The beacons!  The beacons of the Panic Room are lit!  Weenies call for aid!"

(Long pause...)

@WxWatcher007:  "And the Reaper will answer!  Muster the skeletons and headstones!"

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol

3 hours ago, mappy said:

I’m selfishly glad those fantasy snowstorms didn’t work out this week. It’s tech week at the studio, with a holiday recital Saturday. Would have been more stressful with a snowstorm in the mix 

I totally hear you on that (as much as I love snow), having dealt with a similar situation when my daughter was doing ballet years ago.  The school let students participate in the Washington Ballet's "Nutcracker" each year, and she was in that a few times.  Typically nothing bad in terms of weather occurred (other than rain!).  But in Dec. 2013, there was some ice event the night I had to take her downtown to the Warner Theatre in DC for one performance, and that was an adventure I could have done without!

13 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol

A bad-tempered and bitter (old) man.

7 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

 

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This one is a lot more realistic for us...

But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!):

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

CAPE has had all he can stand and he can't stands no more

LOL sounds like two minds with but a single thought, I just had to respond as well!

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon.

Haha, I think the both of us were working up a response to this ridiculous argument.  I wrote a response but moved it to the Banter thread.

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Keep in mind the thing  about free speech .  This is a weather discussion board-all aspects and components of weather.  You model worshippers are stuck with no ability to discuss anything other than what models give to you.  They are inefficient as far as the One aspect and one aspect only that I identify-wintertime low pressure placements for eastern 1/3 of nation. 
that needs correction and I will continue to address that reality. Mostly what I do is observations, with models a small segment of what I say, and  I’m here 365 unlike the snow bunnies so I will keep talking as I see fit

Moving this to the Banter thread where I think my reply would be more appropriate.  I don't normally like to step into these things too much, but am compelled to do so here...

This isn't about free speech.  It's not like your post was deleted by mods or anything like that.  Besides, this board is a privately run entity (not run by or sponsored by the government!), so mods or administrators can set the rules, remove posts, or move them to a more appropriate thread as they see fit (and they have done that).  You're not being freakin' censored for what you said, dude!  @high risk merely said to stop spouting nonsense about models; it's not like he said you have no right to express your opinion (he even said "please" stop spouting nonsense!).  Free speech does not mean freedom from consequences or pushback.  If you say something that is out of line or wrong, someone has the right to call you out on it.  While I agree with you on the point that too many here cling to every single model cycle and incremental change (with much tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth!), I'll still say you have a stunningly negative and myopic view about numerical weather prediction.  Most people who know what they're talking about, and who are not being overly weenie-ish, are well aware of the biases and limitations of models.  They use them as appropriate tools, and are able to impart their knowledge and expertise to make an assessment; they aren't model worshippers.

1 hour ago, high risk said:

                   We get that you don't like computer forecasting models, but could you please stop spouting pure nonsense about them?

I know, right?  It's really beyond insulting with his comments and assertions.  It insults the scientists and programmers who work hard and diligently on NWP and it displays an almost willful lack of understanding on how to use and interpret numerical models.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I predicted a ton of snow just last winter.  You want me to be JB? 

Well, to be fair (you shouldn't be too hard on yourself), I think a lot of people were getting pretty bullish in January of last winter for our prospects in February.  The longer range models kept showing a classic El Nino with blocking, strong southern jet, etc.  It looked like an absolutely ripe snow pattern that would continue for weeks into early March.  Like drool-worthy.  However, as we got into late January, and as that time period got more in range with the regular ensembles, that great pattern evaporated quickly.  We all know what happened afterward (nothing, in terms of winter!).  Honestly, I still don't quite know what happened or why things suddenly appeared to flip to nearly the opposite of what was being advertised day after day after day for awhile.  But I do recall something @Bob Chill mentioned, a caution, that he didn't quite like what he was seeing "under the hood."  And it was either Chill or perhaps you and others as well, who mentioned that as that time got closer, we really didn't see "big hits" on ensemble members showing up, which you normally would see with such an advertised pattern.  And that raised some red flags.

Ahhh, the onset of winter with the possibility of snow the first part of December!  I await "Guys Folks Day" from @stormtracker for one event sometime in the not too distant future!  Or, dare we dream and hope for the ultimate...Jaws music???

9 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Okay, so I'll list your current guess for DCA as 2.5 inches.

Fair enough, that's fine.  I hope I am waaaay underestimating snow for everyone, of course, and would gladly be much too far on the low end.  Thanks!

1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

Well, no, I actually don't think it's an absolute shutout at DCA or anywhere.  My "negative" snow amount guess was just for humor.

In all seriousness, I can see this winter being like last year in the end.  Nothing great, not even really close, but definitely not as awful as 2022-23 (when I literally got 0.5" on the season, that melted by 10AM the morning it fell!).  So...something like a couple of weeks that actually feel wintry, with maybe a couple of minor to moderate events.  Just a wild-ass thought and guess.

My useless, wild guesses pulled from the nether regions!  Hopefully vastly underestimated!

BWI:  3.0"

DCA:  -2.5"

IAD:  2.2"

RIC:  1.5"

Tiebreaker...SBY:  4.4"

---------------------------------

And yeah, I put a NEGATIVE value for DCA, just for fun!  I was reminded of that old SNL skit years ago, called "Chicago Superfans" that had all these guys in a bar (including George Wendt, who was Norm on "Cheers"!) drinking beer and eating fatty chicken wings, saying "Da BEARS!!!" every 5 seconds.  It was funny!  At the end they would predict the score of the upcoming Bears' game (always a Bears' win, of course!).  One time, one of them said something like, "Bears 92, Lions -20!!" (or some negative score).  One of them asked, "How can they get a negative score, that's not possible!"  To which the other replied, "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!"  So...my feeling is, "Hey, DCA will find a way!!" 

On 11/2/2024 at 2:44 PM, TSSN+ said:

Ran the ocean city marathon! My first. Finished in 4:43:37

Congrats!  I have a couple of friends who were runners years ago and did marathons, so I know that's quite the accomplishment!

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Oh, you mean the 30 minutes of a cold blast right before Christmas, that only slightly interrupted very warm conditions before and after!! 

On 10/28/2024 at 7:09 PM, Terpeast said:

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? 

Climate change.  He cancels even earlier than he did back in the day.  Our old Ji analogues for canceling the season don't apply anymore. 

11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Love those shots. That’s a nice camera you got there. 

Thanks!  Yeah, I invested in going to a mirrorless camera and lenses a few years ago (after using traditional DSLRs for years).  Glad I did so, I really like the mirrorless system and it seems everything has been moving in that direction for awhile.  Gradually sold and traded in the previous equipment and eventually got a Canon R5, which is a wonderful camera and the higher resolution allows me to crop a fair bit when needed.

Here's a couple from the other day, plus the October "supermoon" rising from the other week...

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

AL Central is 4-0 and Cleveland has a bye.  The NFC North is the best division in football.  As expected, the upper Midwest/Lakes runs the sports world.

Damn cutters!!!  (I say this jokingly, as a native of Cleveland, so I'm rooting for the Guardians!)

Hey, all!  Haven't been in here for awhile but coming out of "hibernation" as we approach winter!  Even if it's "meh" this year.  Here's a monarch butterfly I got a photo of the other day.  Didn't think butterflies were still around this late in the season but I guess these guys are still migrating.

On 6/23/2024 at 10:04 AM, Mrs.J said:

So went out to check my deck plants and realized it is not too bad out this morning. So decided that to get some fresh air would have breakfast on the deck. A simple omelet with garlic scapes and fresh apricots and blueberries with honey. With a grapefruit Kombucha. We have been members for close to 15 years now of a local CSA. The fruit and garlic scapes are just some of what we got from our weekly takings.
If ever in Frederick Co take a trip down to Thanksgiving Farms on Rt 85 near Adamstown. While not certified organic they use organic practices. And their plant selection is amazing. The green house alone will draw in anyone who loves house plants. Hope all stay cool today and crossing fingers that we may get lucky with a storm or two. Not holding my breath on that one though. 

Damn that looks tasty!  I always like a good omelet!!

On 6/23/2024 at 11:24 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh for real? But it wasn't an actual "blood moon" so to speak?

Yes...it was reddish due to the haze and whatever else in the air plus the moon being so low on the horizon (lots of refraction...notice how the moon looks rather oblong in that photo due to that).  The "blood moon", I believe, refers to what you'd see during a lunar eclipse...which is a totally different thing, the moon passing through the earth's shadow and it turns a spectacular orange-red when total, then moves out of the shadow.  Here's what the moon looks like during a lunar eclipse, from the one we had recently in Nov. 2022:

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow! When/where was this?

I took that Friday evening from the rooftop of my place.  The moon really was that reddish of a color as it rose.