Always in Zugzwang

On 3/18/2023 at 10:15 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

This was truly a work of art, hahahaha A forum masterpiece indeed! Oscar for best screenplay...@stormtracker 

Hahaha, yes it was!  Definitely Oscar-worthy!  Whereas this winter was more like the quality of an Ed Wood film!

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

It's been an honor and a pleasure tracking with you all.  We are by far the best sub forum on this here board.  Our gallows humor can't be touched.  We lose so much, we've perfected it.  Gonna head back into my summer hibernation in a little bit.  Let us save our energy and fight another day (next winter).   

Now, if we are looking for warmth on a 10 day model, that shit is LOCKED and guaranteed.  We do that like no other around here.  Next week looks goooood end of week

Yup, pretty much my sentiments, @stormtracker.  Screw it, awful winter, nothing worthwhile.  But it's done, so whatever.  We do have the best subforum in that we can laugh and joke about our failures and just make light of it all.  We also have some very good posters too, of course.  I'm the same as you, will be in the "summer hibernation" for the most part but will check in here and there for fun and to see what's going on.

You have a good spring/summer, too!  And yeah, we'll get back at 'em next winter.

ETA:  Your Youtube "Hitler's Rage" video will be a classic forever!  I've saved the link!  Now that's how gallows humor is done right!  Posting here again for everyone:

15 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

I think they're going to have to write a new volume for the KU book series.  We should call it: Northeast Perfect Track Rainstorms: Volume III.  Case studies and Chronicles of the New Base State.

We'll refer to those as "FU" storms.

44 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You cant bring a snow drought to area that already has one.

Coals to Newcastle, as it were...

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

2014 or 2015 (forget the exact year) had a solid March anafrontal snowstorm up here in Philly. I forget if it impacted you guys. However, you know winter is just about over when this discussion starts lol.


.

Yup...March 5, 2015.  We had rain overnight and into the early morning on the 5th (and had icing a day before that).  Then there was a lull as temperatures dropped with a cold front, and the main low then tracked along the front.  Snowed from about 9AM through 4PM, I got 6.5" snow from that and it was quite cold through the afternoon that day.  Following day on the 6th it also remained below freezing.

Such mood swings over frozen water that falls from the sky! 

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

Typical Nino December

Oh darn...I thought that was the fall foliage outlook (lots of reds and oranges and some yellow)! 

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The JMA with the primary off Ocean City and a secondary over the Bahamas??? 

(jk)

I think that's a follow-up tropical system!! 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, this morphed into something completely different now in just under like 36 hours. Somethings gotta give during this pattern one would think. If it doesnt, @psuhoffman should just send his thesis off to the AMS and publish his book/journal.

I say he should just take his journal and toss it into the fires of Mount Doom!

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Personally don't think the primary gets that far N. No other model is even close to that. GFS is playing catchup this time around. 

Can't say I've really ever seen a primary in Lake Superior and a redevelopment off OBX before, but whatever.  Doesn't matter in the end, the thermals are a wreck.

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The changes on the gfs at 156 vs last 4 runs back to 0z are just head scratching

But unfortunately the last 3 straight have dug that damned shortwave well into the southwest to varying degrees. And the Euro has done the same. 

48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@Always in Zugzwang Here it is, lol

 

Haha! I figured it was from December sometime but honestly couldn't recall if you or Ralph said it first (it just became an incorporated description of a deep vortex ever since!). 

On 3/1/2023 at 12:31 PM, MN Transplant said:

Bottom 6 all in the last 30 years.

And 6 of the bottom 10 are in the 2000s (5 of those after 2010)!!

Interesting how 2009-10 is "only" ranked #5 and "only" an A-.  But upon further thought, the first top 4 were pre-DCA measurements and I guess it was colder overall and more days with >1".  And as expected 2009-10 has the highest "big storm" bonus, but in thinking of it, that's pretty much all we got that winter, big storms.  A little surprising, 2013-14 is lower than I would have thought at #31 and a mere C+.  Seems that so far the only thing that kept this winter slightly better than the all-time worst of 1997-98 is that DCA got just a bit more snow (0.4" vs. 0.1").

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna start charging royalties for every avocado reference 

LOL!!! But shouldn't @Ralph Wiggum get the royalties?

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When I worked at whole foods we used to put a poached egg inside of a half avocado on our hot bar (dating myself here haven't worked in that context in many years). Maybe we need a mix of the two. 

Egg on avocado toast, maybe??

(ETA:  I actually got one of those Squishable avocado pillow things for my daughter years ago, she thought it was overly cute!  And it is.  She named it "Guaqui" LOL!!!)

All this avocado and egg hate today, I swear!!

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are

Right.  Those means at this range, can be highly influenced by one huge solution or a few really bad ones (i.e., zero), so it washes out.  The ops GFS essentially was an extreme "ensemble" member itself, in a way.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose.

Including a few that go to our south.

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wow. Well that is certainly a refreshing look.

If the ops GFS could still nearly pull it off with that extreme trough and solution, imagine what an even somewhat less digging trough would do?

Just now, H2O said:

randy is too busy photoshopping the sesame street count into a WB 0Z GFS snow probability map WB WB WB WB WB

I thought he was on his way to OZ.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Way to totally derail the thread @Ralph Wiggum

Yeah he started off being very...BLUNT...about it, too!! 

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I'm just hoping most got the Seinfeld reference. For the younger crowd, perhaps not...

LOL, oh I totally got the Seinfeld reference!  That was a funny episode, too!

Wow, I come in here looking for a possible snowstorm and all I see is Mulva!  I guess that's better than caterpillars and other bugs! 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

does digital blue really count on the cmc?

Dude, you get Barney'd...digital purple over your house on the CMC!