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Always in Zugzwang

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Posts posted by Always in Zugzwang

  1. 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    EXACTLY 

    But if we fail with this…I don’t even want to think about it :lol: 

    So true! And even the retired Reaper might have to reap himself! What's the world coming to? It's like the Lord High Executioner having to cut his own head off! From Gilbert and Sullivan's "Mikado"... 

    (I'm a Gilbert and Sullivan operetta fan by the way!) 

    And so we straight let out on bail
    A convict from the county jail,
    Whose head was next
    On some pretext
    Condemned to be mown off,
    And made him Headsman, for we said,
    "Who's next to be decapite'd
    Cannot cut off another's head
    Until he's cut his own off,
    His own off, his own off,
    Until he's cut his own off."
    And we are right, I think you'll say,
    To argue in this kind of way;
    And I am right,
    And you are right,
    And all is right — too-loo-ral-lay!

    • Haha 1
  2. 55 minutes ago, George BM said:

    The event IS based off of the V-Day 2015 snow squall... but a weenier version of it during the daylight hours... and on everyones favorite day of seeing snow. So yes... you wouldn't be wrong to say it's similar to that event. :D

    Ha!  That's great!  And true, it's the weenie version of the real thing (though the real one was pretty weenieish in itself)!

     

    5 minutes ago, Kay said:

    I LOVED that squall. Maybe the best rates I've ever seen(?) I remember being mesmerized by these wild rippling shadows cast on the ground by all that densely falling snow. I believe we've reminisced before and for some it was nbd but awesome here. The modest amount of snow really did its best to drift, too.

    That still stands as my all-time favorite "minor" event around here.  At least in part because of what it ushered in for the next 3-4 weeks.  Here's a snow-encased tree after the snow ended and just as the winds were really picking up.

    Snow_2015Feb14_28.thumb.JPG.8d2fda6c8b9a021d1db2e6df70a8724a.JPG

    • Like 6
  3. 17 hours ago, George BM said:

    Forecast Discussion

    Sunday, December 25, 2022 1:00PM EST

    Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

    High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

    Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

    The next 36 to 48 hours will be very notable in the sensible weather department. An intense snow squall w/ occasional lightning associated with the arctic front is currently moving east through the Appalachian mountains at around 50 or so kts. Snow Squall Warnings are already in place extending from eastern WV to the I-95 corridor. With increased sunshine associated with the mid-level dryslot moving overhead surface temps ahead of the line have warmed up into the upper 30s/lower 40s while dewpoints remain relatively high in the mid/upper 20s across the DC and Baltimore metros. With the very steep environmental lapse-rates immediately ahead of the front a couple hundred j/kg of MLCAPE has developed. This combined with the extreme forcing along the front courtesy of the impressive dynamics associated with the shortwave through swinging through and strong deep-layer shear in place (especially considering the thermodynamics) may lead to even further intensification of this low-topped convection. Lots of areas in northern WV received a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow from this squall. While temperature east of the mountains are well above freezing even more extreme snowfall rates, owing to the increasing instability that the system is moving into, will offset the effects of initial melting and graupel mixed in with the snow so that snow totals are similar east of the mountains.

    Snow Squall Impacts:

    1.      Widespread severe wind gusts (55-65+ mph) will accompany this squall leading to scattered to numerous power outages and many downed trees.

    2.      Instantaneous snowfall rates of several inches per hour will lead to whiteout conditions w/ visibilities dropping to 100 feet or less at times. Snowfall amounts will total 1 to 3 inches w/ locally higher amounts possible.

    3.      Temperatures will rapidly fall from near 40F into the 20s in a matter of minutes leading to flash freeze conditions across the entire area as the system moves through.

    All of this will combine to make travel virtually impossible for a time. Use extreme caution and avoid travel until the squall has passed. Even then, use extreme caution with icy roadways and downed trees/powerlines.

    Other than wind and snow, the temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be the main story. West-northwesterly winds will remain very strong with sustained winds of 25 to 40mph and gusts to around 60mph through the evening and much of the night. Winds will still be gusting to around 45mph by dawn Monday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures will fall through the 10s and into the single-digits through the evening and overnight hours bottoming out in the lower single-digits in the urban corridor and southeast areas w/ lower negative single-digits well northwest and around 0F in the close-in NW suburbs. Wind chills will hover around 20 to 30F below zero across the Greater Metropolitan area throughout the overnight hours until dawn w/ windchills falling to as low as 35F below zero in far northwestern suburbs. Temperatures will only rise into the mid-10s or so during the afternoon with wind chills remaining around 0 to -5F with the still brisk though, by then, sub-advisory level winds. With diminishing winds and clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to decent enough radiational cooling conditions, temperatures may drop to as low as -5 to -10F in the coldest northwestern suburbs and valleys with temps probably remaining at or just above zero in urban areas and near the bay.

     

    Alerts:

    Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

    High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

    Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

     

    “Forecaster”: George BM

    This sounds surprisingly similar to what actually happened on Feb. 14, 2015!  Strong cold front blasted through, a couple hours burst of snow that dropped a quick ~2" where I'm at...followed by strong winds and very cold!

    • Like 1
  4. 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Yo this is like a team that loses a lot actually gets up by 3 or 4 TDs...but you KNOW that they find ways to screw it up, and it's in a stadium (Nina-Jet Stadium) You wanna be excited and optimistic, but yet you know you're team is capable of messing up even that. If this is the best December blocking and we wasted it (which we are capable of), it would be like that kind of team. Guarded optimism since there are other pieces to the puzzle...

    Hey as one who has endured a litany of Cleveland sports agony, I endorse this sentiment! :lol: The drive, the fumble, the Jordan shot at the buzzer, two World Series losses in extra innings of game 7!

    But you do get the occasional bright spots (2016 NBA championship in an exciting game 7)!

  5. 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Rule of thumb with Nina's and favorable patterns is having the npac ridge axis aligned further east than classical placement. 95-96 really shows this as. When the top of the ridge allows "downhill flow" in Western Canada, it keeps our cold air source intact. Cold continental air flows down into the rockies and bleeds/moderates eastward. More laterally than usual with blocking too instead of digging and releasing.

    Our best storms have "wide and thin" high pressure to our north aka "banana high" because its shaped like a banana. We rarely or never get that even with a block when the npac ridge is in a more classic Nina position. The trough in the western conus is very hard to fight back enough for easy wins unlike people north (as close as philly). 

    The margins here are always a razor edge in any and all setups. We have always and will always be more prone to fail that win here. That part sucks. What doesn't suck is we do get flush hits with the most powerful winter storms in the eastern half of the continent. Places as close as Ohio would kill for a coastal they can't get.  I focus on the good and we have it pretty good with continental weenieism

    Good points, Bob.  And I'll agree with the part I bolded for sure, having grown up in Ohio.  I know I've said this before but in northeast Ohio we'd get a number of solid area-wide events, like 4-8" or 6-12" kind of deals.  Rarely more than a foot (I can recall a couple in my time there).  Never 20"+.  Now, that excludes lake effect snows of course, but those are more localized and you have to be in the right areas of NE Ohio to really get the full brunt.  Or you could get a "bonus" of lake effect on top of the synoptic snow when the main storm was over and the winds shifted.  When I came to this area, I never had experienced a synoptic scale 20" event.  I've now seen about 4 of those in the two decades I've been here.  And a few others of a foot or more.  Likewise, I've seen more ice events here too than I recall in Ohio...the whole CAD setup we have is something you don't see there so much.

  6. 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    I feel like to closest thing we had to a Dec. 5th scenario I think was like 2017? Whatever it was it snowed about 1-2 inches here, it came earlier than expected...and I had to drive home (including on the highway) from a gig in it...and it was frickin' epic and my first time driving in powder, lol (mom was in the car and she wasn't having fun)

    P.S. The only time a muggy Christmas is acceptable is if a HECS follows in Jan/Feb a la 66', 83' and of course 16'

    I was thinking there was some smaller event a few years back but couldn't recall which December that was.  I believe you're correct, that was 2017.

  7. Who knows...maybe we're due for something decent in December.  It's been a loooong time since there was anything really wintry in that month.  I think 2013?  Now, I'm not talking 2009 level HECS, but something like a "December 5th" moderate event to actually get us on the board and actually feel like the season.  Just so we're not going through the month with a near torch, and by the time Christmas arrives we're hoping that 2+ weeks out ensemble forecasts for sometime in January, that some mythical fine pattern MIGHT show up.  And I think we can do without a muggy, warm Christmas Eve (2015).

    • Like 4
  8. 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

    A good start no doubt. I've refined my strategy this year. In addition to shoveling all my neighbors' snow into my yard, I have a nice tilt trailer that can haul 3 tons of snow so I'll import from Smith Mtn this year. @psuhoffmanwill be very jealous of my very legit snow totals this year. Mappy will need a new color for my rockville yard. Yolo time 

    So when does the Chill Ski and Tobogganing Resort open?? :lol:

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  9. @WxWatcher007...all those photos and videos are amazing, thanks for sharing that experience!  Takes me back to when I was in northeast Ohio growing up, all those lake effect storms.  We didn't have anything like what the Buffalo area is getting now, but I know you can easily get several inches within a couple of hours from those lake bands.  And it was crazy how you could drive from the downtown Cleveland area or the west side of town where it was cold and mostly clear and some snow on the ground...to a blizzard and whiteout just southeast and east of town.

    • Like 1
  10. So it appears the word of this winter is...RELOAD!!!  It's like AMPED from years ago for the January 2016 blizzard.  Maybe we need @stormtracker to do what he did before, automatically change "reload" to "randytastic" whenever anyone used that term (I think that's what he did for "amped" back in 2016)!

  11. 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Folks, this is all time all time. I’m back at the hotel after a wild drive to Hamburg and I’m exhausted. I have no words. 
     

     

    Wow... Just amazing. Even insane (in a good way!)! Really cool you were able to experience that, must have been awesome!

    • Like 2
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