MAG5035

I think that band has more to do with the larger scale forcing aloft, as it has propagated eastward and it’s currently residing from about a Mount Union-Lewistown-WIlliamsport line. It’s actually not ideal orographically on the east side of the Laurel’s. Being an anafrontal type setup vs a more traditional coastal storm there’s no low level easterly fetch that will help enhance from that aspect. If you look closely at CCX radar (and LWX as well) you can see the low level flow is actually northwesterly and even see some of the lake enhanced stuff propagating NW-SE underneath the synoptic precip shield that has the deep southerly fetch aloft. Part of why the good rates will shut off quickly and not linger once that max forcing moves out of the area early this afternoon.

Lighter rates now but the wind has really ramped up in the last 15min with the temp falling further (from 24 to 22ºF). Recent high gust to 29mph. It’s gonna be hard to measure additional snowfall.

Just measured 4.3”. So that’s roughly 1.5” in the last 45 min or so… a straight fluff bomb. Rates back to moderate.

Getting into what’s probably going to be the money band with this. Heavy snow and now 23ºF.

Moderate to heavy snow currently and a decent breeze. Have had some 25 mph gusts. Temp already down to 24ºF. Closing in on 3” here so far and it’s a nice powdery snow that’s already doing some drifting.

Haha I’ll make it simple. I think pretty much everyone in here is good for a mainly 4-8” type event. Actually my biggest concern at the moment resides in my own general area, having watched the 3k NAM and also the HRRR at times showing a soft spot in accums in this particular area (between about here down to Cumberland,MD) between the now established precip shield in western PA and the slug associated with the low itself that arrives from the south. That could cost me a warning snow if that came to fruition so I’ll definitely be watching how things evolve overnight with that. Other than that, I really think everything looks good for everyone to see their biggest snowfall of the season and likely a warning type snowfall. I think the ceiling on this in C-PA is probably 10” max.

You’d be surprised how fast the 93 superstorm moved. It actually occurred during a +NAO state. The low center went from the northern Gulf off the FL Panhandle to exiting New England in about 24hrs or so. Obviously the insane phasing situation and setup made that a way bigger storm.. This one’s still dynamic though and it has the far reaching significant cold to tap into as well.

Frontal passage noted just before 11pm here. Temp/dew is down to 40/34. 511 cams in and around the Pittsburgh metro are rockin pretty good with snow on the ground (main roads still mainly wet).

There wasn’t a point I’ve seen anywhere near 2 feet being portrayed anywhere in PA with this system. The NAM and couple global runs (think mainly the EC and Canadian) have tried to present a 10+ swath at times but that was like a 10-15” type range. I did look back and saw the 18z NAM that was posted last night. That still seemed like a pretty big exception to what has mostly looked like more of a 6-10” type event on the high end. That’s the thing with this, up through the first part of yesterday this was still looking like a western half of PA bullseye. We’ve made a pretty big shift east to get the LSV fully involved. What that also means is this has became more progressive to get us there, so that’s going to take the top end off accumulation potential. It still looks like it could easily be the biggest snowfall of the season in parts of the LSV regardless, so I guess it’s all in one’s perspective of what’s a good storm.

I wouldn’t say it’s overdone, this is easily a 6-10” (or greater) type event for wherever the swath sets up. It’s a timing thing, NAM seems to both press the front pretty well and hold back the wave long enough.

Haha, time for the role reversal. Trying to nail stuff in the Sus Valley has been extremely frustrating for me this winter. With this setup I’m only going to acknowledge the western half of PA has the best chance of seeing what could be significant snow (6+) for now. I do agree on the flash freeze potential and likely some kind of snow accumulation with a big time shot of cold being pulled into a very rapidly deepening coastal low. Models, especially the global ones have been too overzealous on the eastern edge of snow swaths so I’m taking some pause for this. The potential for a good snow event for everyone is there though.

Still getting some snow bursts but additional accumulations have stopped with max solar and temps around 33ºF. Have measured 3.4” and it’s definitely a wet snow. Most roads are now wet. This was basically on target for what I was expecting here. As I mentioned in my last post, problem for the Sus Valley was the best of the precip shield ending up tracking northwest. Rates would have overcome the marginal temps. But as it is, the result is the north-central being upgraded to warnings being a couple degrees colder and ended up with the best of the QPF.

I’d imagine it’s cashing in at least about as much as here. I’m nearly 2k feet lower than Blue Knob summit here off the Allegheny front and I’m over 3” now. Surely it’s at least a couple degrees colder up there. They may not be getting quite the rates though. The big thing with the storm evolution I’m seeing this morning is that the best precip/rates is running western PA to central and esp northern PA above the turnpike. Pretty much looking like best precip is going the HRRR route (more NW axis) as opposed to even what the 6z NAM had this morning and especially what most 0z guidance had overnight. That’s unfortunately to the detriment of the LSV, which needed the rates the most to overcome the marginal temps. At any rate, I’m not sure how much keeps til the weekend up there as we moderate prior to the next system. Good news though is the western half of the state is currently well positioned for potentially an even bigger snowfall with Fri Night/Sat’s system (especiallly in the higher ground) and a significant cold shot for the second half of the weekend. It’s unfortunate that what is looking like one the best synoptic snow weeks of the winter (with no stupid mix and ice) around these parts is coming after half decent conditions at Blue Knob were hit pretty hard by the mostly warm and wet weather the couple weeks.

Already at 2.3” and moderate/heavy rates here. 31ºF

Snow has begun here, light dusting. 31ºF/26ºF

Current temp/dewpoint is 30ºF/23º. My biggest unmixed period of snowfall this winter was the Jan 16th event with 5.2” prior to the mixing and 982mb low going over my head. So having a look at things this evening I honestly give this event a slight chance of beating that here (Thinking about 3” in the backyard is a decent bet). I tend to agree on the elevational nature of this event to a point and marginal sfc temps and whatnot, but I personally think it’s being overplayed with this setup. Like okay, I think most 4-6” or so amounts if they show up are likely going to be in the north-central and/or on the higher parts of the ridge and valley. However, this is a pretty decent slug of moisture coming at us being a southern stream system. If it comes in rocking rate wise right off the bat, elevation is probably going to matter less. Arrival time per the HRRR ranges from a couple hours pre-dawn SW to about 7-9am going LSV to northern tier… thus solar isn’t going to have too much of an influence during the first part of this event. Big question mark for me is right on the southern tier LSV, but even the more northerly HRRR manages a couple inches there. I will say that there is a chance that the southern tier LSV may mix or rain at the very beginning before cooling the column enough to snow when the heavier stuff sets in, so I wouldn’t get too scared right off the bat. I know it feels like I’ve been at odds with CTP’s thinking pretty much every winter event this season when it comes to discussing my thoughts in here, but I do think this warrants an advisory for most or all of CTP’s CWA. Like I said, I think this is elevational to a degree but not enough so to think that a majority of the Sus Valley can’t manage 2” to verify an advisory (or 3” in this neck of the woods). Hope they’re right, because the heavier stuff arrives during a big portion of the morning rush tomorrow. They must be going off of the NBM (national model blend) pretty hard, because this is about the only guidance I can find that jives with their accumulation map well.

I’m sure one would have to be at some point if the models hold with things. CTP doesn’t seem to be really acknowledging this as a strictly snow event anywhere, painting it as starting as snow/ice and going to a mix (rain/snow) during the day in their grids and referenced in their AFD. I mean i kinda agree that if we don’t have moderate or heavier rates that this could mix with rain in low spots given marginal surface/near surface temps but otherwise thermally this appears to me to be a strictly snow vs rain type event and pretty much all of our subforum has a sufficiently cold column for snow.

45 mph is the current measured peak gust back this way (around 730p). Temp is back to 38ºF

Nothing crazy to report here, I ended up going through a broken part of the line and didn’t even get a downpour. Only a gust to 32mph with the passage. Getting some higher gusts now post front (up to 34 mph max gust so far). Temp falling rapidly down to 52ºF… a 10 degree drop in the last 30 min.

Have to acknowledge the winter threat coming up on Wednesday, I know I haven’t been posting as much lately. The key thing I see for this is simply where the best QPF and rates set up. It’s as simple as that really, given good agreement on progged low track to the south of PA and sufficient cold for a snow column. We go through this Every. Single. March/late season. If the rates are there, the snow is going to pile up on more than the mulch.. and that includes roadways and everything else in between except maybe @canderson’s property lol. With that said, having chilly but somewhat marginal surface temps and the higher March solar insolation… an event with light rates (and/or the fringe areas within the precip shield) is probably going to have some trouble accumulating on a lot of surfaces outside of higher elevations. Most guidance and ensembles are showing decent rates/amounts over a good part of our subforum. The NAM seems to be the least on board for a widespread heavier event in C-PA actually having the axis of heaviest QPF running the northern half Mid-Atlantic forum’s turf and also our southern tier. 12z was pretty nice, however the new 18z has the same axis but tightened up the good QPF. It seems like the biggest amounts in play for this event is probably going to reside in the 3-6” range. Again, rates are important.. especially with this being progged to be generally a daytime event.

Not to snow on everyone’s Spring/Sixers parade haha, but I do have a changeover and some snow to report this early morning (dusting). 511 cams just up the hill from me in Cambria look to have gotten an inch or so.

February was the first full month for my weather station so here were the basics for the month. The 30.2ºF mean looked pretty close to average compared to the local climo (KAOO) despite a handful of days that did spike up into the 50s and a couple 60+ days.

Well the reason for less freezing rain in this general area and at least the eastern Laurels was because most of the precip fell as sleet. Surface temps weren’t super cold, but that 925-900mb layer definitely was.. and it held fast for the most of the heavier precip in a pretty big chunk of the central. The main warm advection push aloft during the bulk of the event came higher in the column from about 850-700mb level. There’s no input from terrain or CAD that high up to delay or mitigate a strong WAA push, so that can often overachieve… hence why it mixed all the way into NY and north central PA didn’t see much actual snow at all. 830am this morning I measured 1.5” of sleet this morning and what I could guesstimate was about a tenth or so of ice… which has all melted off the trees this morning. Most of the sleet accum will definitely remain on the non-paved surfaces, but roads are in good shape now. It was real mess to clean up, I had to use the snowblower to remove it. But considering I’m in one of the 4 counties under a wind advisory this afternoon, I’m glad freezing rain issues weren’t huge. Extra bonus.. that 1.5” of sleet is technically the biggest snowfall I’ve had this month lol.

Pouring sleet right now, probably about an 80/20 blend IP vs ZR. Approx 1.2” of sleet accumulation. 31ºF/30ºF

Close to an inch of sleet on the ground. Think we’re starting to transition towards the ZR phase but precip is still about a 50/50 blend of sleet and freezing rain. The sleet on the ground is starting to firm up with more ZR in the mix but so far accrual is still in the glaze category and not really measurable yet. 30.7ºF/28.1ºF temp and dewpoint. Winds are up a bit, gusting past 15mph at times and mostly southerly.