BooneWX

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event: 1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons 2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

I mean I have seen already making it to the ground with a 30/13 reading. It shouldn’t be making it to the ground but it is. Doesn’t make me hopeful for drier results.

Flurries 30/13

As someone in the industry, it’s not for no reason. Thank energy policy this past decade which pre maturely rushed the closure of coal fired power plants. You can’t replace that capacity overnight, it takes significant investment, much more than any company can possibly shell out without passing on. Luckily, electricity is still the best bang for your buck. It fuels almost every aspect of your life daily, for roughly the cost of a value meal.

I do hope yall are right though. I’ll be the first to cheer on 40s and no precip.

I’d expect that. Idk if I’ve ever seen Asheville with bad ice. Not sure it’s even possible there with a stout cad.

32/12. Deck thickening and lowering over the past hour.

Been juggling that last sentence in my head. Most people are too illiterate to see anything other than “snow” in the forecast, so even 3” of freezing rain and the electric grid laying on the ground would be a bust to them because their iPhone guaranteed it.

32/14. Steadily falling since 10.

We’re also having quite the over performance just to our west so idk. Precip is falling well ahead of schedule. We already have snow just to my west hitting the ground.

Some of yall that are up high enough to transition to rain are going to be the most thankful group in western NC. One of the rare winter storms that we’d all be fine whiffing on.

Should be enough for a disaster anyways with strong winds

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

As expected, the storm is ahead of schedule.