BooneWX

Can’t wait to see the pics from this group. It’s about to absolutely crank.

And for what it’s worth, I think this upcoming “torch” is more of a gently above average type of deal for the upper south than 70s and golf weather. It looks like we’re going to be flooded with Pacific air, which isn’t exactly a torch signal - usually just a signal for a lot of 50s and low 60s sprinkled in. Torch to me is “tune up the lawnmower” weather cause it might start growing again.

I think point 1 is what I was trying to illustrate though. Maybe not on here, but I saw dozens of talking heads ignoring other parameters surrounding winter weather potential in the south as if the MJO is the only driver. I just don’t believe that it is. It has to be taken with a grain of salt and many big storms have occurred in less than ideal phases. So we actually agree on more than you think, I should’ve just added more context. It matters but it’s one drop in the very large bucket of things we need to get right to deliver an impactful winter weather event.

I think if we all put our minds to it, we could easily crowd fund a small cabin in the Tug Hills of NY

Idk if I’d change the timing, I’m getting a new St. Croix Seviin reel on Christmas Day

You nailed it for sure. You also smelt the bs of this current pattern long before anyone else.

File this away as well: MJO always has and always will be a vastly overrated teleconnection. We’ll firmly be in 8 for these 70° days.

I do think this pattern comes back around before long. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say 2ish weeks of seasonal to above average. It just stinks that those 2 weeks begin right before Christmas but on the bright side, an above average Christmas lets the kids get outside with new toys. We sort of needed this reset as well. This pattern was never going to produce. It’s northern stream dominated, Alaska was cold, no southern jet action, and either the trough was not deep enough or too far east or the ridge out west was too flat or all of the above. Let me get a cold Jan driven by a more cooperative Pacific.

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Super mega deathtron frost with freezing fog this am

Most won’t appreciate how anomalous of a signal it is to see accumulation outputs on models for the South Mountains and Brushy’s.

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@wncsnow I think I’m coming around to your thoughts about the pattern. I’m not completely out on the next few weeks producing but this current setup with a cold Alaska, slack ridge heights out west and a strong northern stream just isn’t going to cut it unless we get lucky. We need help in the Atlantic too. It stinks to have this much cold on this side of the globe without any fantasy storms but here we are. I’m sort of wondering as well, if what comes after a complete shake up, could be a better version of this. Inject some volatility and get these big blocking mechanisms in the Pacific moving around a bit.

I’ve had snow here for about an hour. It’s very light but steadily falling. Looks nice with the Christmas lights.

Nice snow shower working through