BooneWX

An overrunning event Sunday would be the most ideal way to have an overrunning event. Most of the time those setups are rather marginal and you’re fighting modest rates, but it’s already going to be cold Sunday. Throw evaporative cooling into the mix and we’re talking about some higher than normal ratios outside the mountains.

The footprint for Sunday screams overrunning on a few models, which is the only reason I’ll hold out some hope. We wouldn’t be remotely close to a final solution if it’s an overrunning event.

For what it’s worth, the Ukie has support from its ensemble and the ensemble gets more and more aggressive with each run. As @BornAgain13pointed out, the AIGFS run improved. Actually, it’s a substantial improvement and looks similar to the Ukie at h5. Good to see the Ukie not on a complete island. Let’s see if 0z can get any others to work that way.

Not sure this is a good thing imo. If we don’t get a 50/50 low or some blocking established, it’s going to be tough sledding with a lot of northern stream energy and little to slow it down and give it time to dig.

This is going to be another step in the right direction. It’s not enough, but it went towards other guidance.

Euro is further west from 0z on the second system at least through 90hrs. Energy dropping in from Montana to the plains.

Tantalizing…. We are so so close to a big dog

Euro run will be interesting. Does it favor one look over the other or will it have its own island real estate as well?

Both are good for different reasons but the key being they’re hilariously different at h5 with how they handle the energy (gfs and Ukie)

Man that GFS run….. if we take a tick or two further southwest and it would’ve been an absolute weenie run. It looked similar to last night’s Ukie.

GFS pops a low and light wintry precip for Sunday into Monday. We get neutral tilt on the Alabama/Georgia line this run. Very very different look in a good way for 12z.

Major improvements on the gfs for system 2. Sheesh.

GFS with a substantial shift west from 0z on the energy for the second system.

Icon was a nice step in the direction we want for system 2

Be nice to have some blocking to help right now