BooneWX

3K is a big nothing burger south of Virginia through 16hrs

35

Just hit 37 here. Still dropping like a rock.

Target imo: 30°, I think if we could make it there before the cloud cover gets dense, we got a shot. 30 because you’ve gotta adjust for the 3-4° bump inevitably coming with the sky blanket. If we get moisture in early, it could really help since every cam has us at like 40/41 at the start.

Sunset. Not a cloud in the sky. .

Racing downhill, let’s go! Any hopium I can get I’ll take.

It’s very rare around here, which made last night so interesting but like normal fog, you have to have high humidity and that saturated air super cools into droplets. Those droplets then freeze on surface objects like freezing rain, but the main difference being that these droplets are tiny - much smaller. Think steam in a bathroom after a shower vs the water coming out of the shower itself - similar concept. It’s a lot more common in coastal communities that get cold: i.e. New England, Seattle.

The only wildcard I see is that we’re about to get way more radiational cooling than I would have anticipated. Gonna be a sizable break in between the clouds moving out and tomorrows batch moving in.

He’s alive!

We were living on the edge with this one and couldn’t afford for it to take any steps backwards and it did. I’m not even bullish for the northern half of the state anymore. This is a classic cold air chasing moisture setup and those just don’t pan out well if you’re south of middle Virginia.

3k is very warm at the surface. I learned my lesson discounting it last year.

Yikes

17z hrrr did some digging, hopefully 18z follows suit

@Hvwardcan you give us some hopium for a lee side trough?

I think this pattern is going to eventually bare an amplified EC storm. Go read Cranky’s post on Twitter that I shared in the main thread yesterday. It may be at the tail end of the pattern but I do think it’s coming.