BooneWX

I’m at the point where I think there will be a major east coast storm between the 7th and 10th. It remains to be seen on who misses out. I think the mid-Atlantic north will be particularly favored this first time but idk. We could get a stout HP and get hammered as well. The -NAO just continues to impress on the models. Odds of getting that damming high are up from normal.

One uptrend I’ve seen today is that the ensembles have thrown some haymakers in individual runs. Plenty of duds but some insane runs mixed in as well. Goes to show just how high ceiling *could* be. The southern jet cranking really opens the door for some bombs.

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I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone.

It’s the GEFS that I trash, yes, but interesting to see the ensemble members spitting out some absolute bangers in that 1/9 range. Euro AI with a nice I-85 storm in that range as well.

We’re building towards cross polar flow on almost the entire 12z suite

Eye candy .

Gonna be some gnashing of teeth the next week or so I’m afraid. It’s going to be interesting to see this block develop but as the pacific gets squared away, I think we’re going to be working through some table setters. I’m bullish on our odds once we get the PNA to pop though.

Winds are absolutely howling

GEFS continues its woefully bad performance .

It’s really encouraging to see that classic southern slider footprint present in the long term snowfall means. I just hope we don’t get too much cold press and suppress everything but with the southern jet looking as active as it does, we’re likely to see some really amped storms to balance things out.

I think we’ll see that trough drop further west and south over time. You can see the run to run changes on the models, adjusting to our -NAO.

I like that signal at this range. A storm and a 1036 hp in almost a perfect spot. Nudge that track a hair to the east and we’re going to see a hell of a clown map. At least the players are on the field.

Definitely the best look we’ve had in a while! I like where we’re at. Could all go to pot but for now it’s hard not to weenie. I think someone on the east coast is getting a big dog and I love our odds with ample cold on this side of the globe.