BooneWX

Someone will get the ultimate tease from the NAM tomorrow

Let’s play a game of find the lee .

GEFS with quite the increase in precip as well. I still think thermals would be an issue, especially that time of day.

When was the last time we had a Lee side trough? It’s been a long time I believe

We got the hot light to appear by fantasizing about past storms - this crew is built different. True winter storm weenies.

Dec 2018 (above) will be hard to replicate but 4 years earlier is still the goat for me. That Valentines storm in 2014, I was living in Mt. Airy and day 1 was cool but as the storm was departing, we got under that upper level death band and watched us eclipse day 1 totals in a quarter of the time. By far the heaviest snow I’ve ever witnessed. Believe we came close to 20”. .

I was in high school too. I remember getting out early that day. We had a family Christmas gathering that night and still went. We passed dozens of cars stalled out in the main roadways - no plows could keep up. I also recall it being bitterly cold after that snow and school basically got canceled an extra 3-4 days before winter break. Magical time! Freed up some 1 am evenings with the boys playing call of duty lol.

Old Dominion? Do we have a Monarch in this chat?!

That 2009 event is so underrated. One of my all time favorites.

I need a shortwave that hits negative tilt in Alabama with a surface low tracking just inland. Gonna speak it into existence.

Yep. It doesn’t make me bullish. I’d rather maintain this slightly below average pattern we’ve got rn and hope for an anchored high to deliver the goods. I don’t think anyone outside of the mountains should be rooting for the PV split and historic cold dump.

On the flip side, next weekends trough setup could be more favorable to amplify something. It looks like we might be in a favorable spot with the trough positioned over the lakes.

I just don’t think the temps are going to cut it. Another transient, mistimed HP.

Festive feeling indeed. Some extreme cold trying to pop up in the long range.

All of the above, some weighing on winter more than others at various points. Hot tub temps in the Gulf have certainly made things a challenge, evident in the shift of tornado frequency from the plains to the Deep South. Im on the fence for arctic sea ice/high latitude snow cover. It helps but we’ve had some seriously strong cold outbreaks through the 2000s and they rarely mean anything other than nose bleeds and pipes bursting. This is why I’m not the least bit bullish with the Barney cold showing up on some of the ensembles. It’s useless. Great to have cold on your side of the hemisphere, sure, but if we’re talking about an air mass that would produce temps in the low 30s with full sunlight, those storms will be raining on Cuba.