BooneWX

More of a true miller a look than your classic overrunning setup

I gotta go to bed before the Euro kills my vibe

Come to papa

Good heavens

Another tick west for the GFS

Remarkable where we stand now vs 24 hrs ago

And by no means am I disagreeing. I do think, just looking at the upper levels, that trough orientation, rising heights to the east and waa overrunning cold air with an upslope component makes me optimistic for at least western Nc. Idk if it’s as much that I think it trends nw with time as I think we’re likely to see a much more expansive precip shield when all is said and done.

If I was down east, I’d be really worried about cold air advection since there’s no anchored high in place. Idk if there’s any group on this website that could describe the pain of waiting for cold to slip over the mountains more than us.

I feel like last years setup was super screwed because we watched an energy transfer happen. This one shouldn’t have that problem and is probably going to be more prone to a shift west, especially with heights rising over the Atlantic.

My daughter said I should draw something on her doodle board. Yall think it avoids the east coast? Close shave at a minimum. .

Hopefully a pre cursor event just like 2014…. valentines 2014 is one that’ll live in lore for a long time.

GEFS is west even more. Webb says he doesn’t buy any eastern NC solution.

Yep but I still think these globals are way too dry as it is. I fully expect some namming to occur Friday. Cams will tell the story.

Imo don’t fret and split hairs on QPF quite yet. Overrunning setups tend to trend wetter down to zero hour.

The GFS has legs because of this. They’re almost identical at that hour, just a matter of who is right on the strength.