BooneWX

I wouldn’t be shocked if we trend firmly towards the first event not delivering soon and the models really hone in on system 2. There’s definitely a path for storm 1, but my thinking: Current mess outside - initiates the changes we need late weekend. Pattern becomes more favorable. Storm 1 - lays out the plates, fine china and silverware. Establishes cold profiles and makes way for storm 2. Storm 2 - Delivery

Healthy uptick in the mean for the euro ensembles

Healthy looking bowling ball

Someone more intelligent than me would have to confirm but with 0z on top and 12z below, we gained more west Atlantic ridging. You can see the pressure it puts on the energy and nudges it too far west. The low it spawns cuts with it. .

Who’s having fun?!

Admittedly jumped the gun but our 500mb look was great at this range

Storm 2 doesn’t quite deliver but as @wncsnowsaid, the pieces are there. Plenty to be excited about after that 12z suite.

Biggest issue with storm one on the euro is a partial/very late phase. She’s going off to do important work in establishing the cold for storm 2 though.

Shockingly good agreement on storm 1 at this range from the euro and gfs at least upstairs

Well now hold on. The euro is absolutely not rain on storm 2. The 500mb setup is a major winter storm. Waiting on the surface maps to load.

Me as well, but I don’t buy the gfs evolution one bit and even so, it’s ticking west with every run. The GEFS doesn’t agree whatsoever with the op. I think the CMC has the solution that looks most sensible right now. That first storm digs, climbs the coast and becomes a 50/50 low that provides the cold air feed for a WNC special on the trailing system.

The first storm is on the table but by “on the table,” it could be a table setter for something much larger with that second storm. scoring the first would be an absolute coup, but the cmc uses it to help establish a much better environment for the second storm.

The GFS always has these little subtle hints embedded that remind you to proceed with caution: like a tropical system near Cabo at hour 216

Second storm is another hit on the gfs

Bingo. I’m anxious to see the 12z euro. 6z looked like it was going to be an epic run.