BooneWX

Apparently the Canadian recently had an update, which is why I thought it’d be relevant to share this.

Funny you ask that - I was thinking randomly about October 2018 when it hit 90° multiple days in the lower elevations and I have pictures of me fly fishing with no waders like 2 weeks before Halloween. Also an El Niño year. A month and a half after wet wading, we had the big behemoth snowstorm of Dec 8/9 hit WNC. I remember the flip being harsh and the leaves still being in the infancy phase of changing colors as we flipped to Thanksgiving temps.

It’s going to be one of those years where we push this heat well into October and when the flip happens, it happens fast. Regime change meets active southern jet and suddenly you go from 80s/90s and dry to 50s and rain. I’m not saying it’ll be an early kick off to winter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if come Halloween, it feels more like late Nov/early Dec with no warning.

95°… absolutely criminal

Never ending summer

Meanwhile….. .06” in a little over a week

Unfortunate situation unfolding. I hope everyone is prepared and isn’t expecting tropical storm conditions because it’s clearly going to be much more than that. The storm is bad enough - interaction with a jet streak makes it even worse.

How many beans in the jar folks?

I may be wrong but cansips tends to have a warm bias, so this perked my interest for sure. As we’ve all said, all it takes is one storm outside of the mountains to make or break a season. I’ve got a hunch we have a rather warm winter but somehow still make or break above avg snowfall for many areas with just one well timed shot of cold air and an active storm track. Source regions will be key. My hunch is that we don’t build adequate snowpack over Canada but from that same token, does the El Niño pop a hell of a ridge on the west coast?

My bad for the bad memories. I am rooting for you guys to get the hammer this season.

I’m craving an 09/10 repeat

Last few winters have been generally good across the SE with some caveats. Are we still capable of pulling off a blockbuster? Remains to be seen… but we are due for one.

Folks in Tx/LA should be thankful this doesn’t have another 12-24 hrs over water. It was finally taking advantage of its environment in the 11th hour.

Lightning in the core, convection rotating upshear.

Quite the jog south by the core in recent radar frames. It looks like the stronger connection to the south may have given it a tug. It’s probably a wash at this point, but that may have bought it an extra hour or two.