BooneWX

49.6° at my place. Wish I had time to sit outside and soak it in. Maybe soon we can time one of these fronts up for a weekend.

We are spoiled as hell to have essentially skipped the dog days entirely. It’s false fall but with each passing day, the heat won’t have that same stiffness to it. College football on the back porch tonight. Enjoy!

We’re going to pay dearly for this pleasant weather in Sept and Oct aren’t we?

Just in time for week 1 of college football.

Looks like she’s finally hopping in the car to leave

Erin is dragging her feet. Her ride is coming along quickly. What if she misses it? I’m starting to wonder….because you know the models have always been dialed in on UL lows in the North Atlantic. Rarely ever miss!

Erin looks like it’s definitely going to be a mess for the OBX. It won’t be anything they aren’t used to, but it looks more and more likely that they’ll feel a big push of water + TS winds. What a crazy system. It’s always fascinating to see these MDR systems go from tight compact, Charley-like cores to large real estate systems in just a few days. Weather is cool.

This took me by surprise, not gonna lie. I was expecting showery activity but this has been a complete washout. .95” on the day so far, but like you said, plenty more coming.

6z 3K NAM has almost 8 inches from Cleveland and Rutherford counties up to my neck of the woods. It looks like a new fetch sets up overnight in the foothills. HRRR wayyyyy further east with the axis.

First, I absolutely realize this is the equivalent of posting a 10:1 snowfall map 300 hrs out but to my point yesterday, I think we’re heading for some dangerously prime conditions in the SW Atlantic. Sea surface temps are bath tub warm, it looks like whatever wave makes it west of the Antilles will have optimally low shear and won’t be competing with dry air. “Ridge over troubled water” pattern inbound… Lots of solutions on the table but this ridiculous one from the GFS isn’t the only model firing warning shots. The ensembles seem to like the odds of a strong system on this side of the hemisphere in 10ish days. .

It has support from the HRRR too. 4+” through early Wed for a large chunk of the foothills with more convection as it went out of range.

It might be a bit of ptsd, but I’m getting worried about this pattern ahead of an increasingly favorable Atlantic.

That is absolutely wild. Only .11” over here!

I think Mother Nature heard your comments about the lack of rain in Marion @wncsnow

There’s been a lot of localized convection robbing from surrounding areas thanks to what seems like Lee enhancement near linville gorge and Wilson creek. Almost all of my action has had to happen organically from cells starting in Alexander County drifting s/sw. It doesn’t matter how robust the storms are near the escarpment, they just get anchored, rain out and spawn new ones over the same exact spot.