BooneWX

Shifts east or west are one thing but we’re sort of trending towards losing the storm all together

RRFS will save us

Yep, definitely not as juicy of a run.

Good analogy. I’m g5 fan, so I’ll liken it to app state’s death march between 2015-2019

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.”

Needed to hear this one tonight when my daughter turned it on after today’s model runs .

Snow! Somewhere in the south, but not settled on where. A range of 6” to nothing for many per model guidance. Some solutions snow on the fish in the Atlantic, a few are almost at the Tennessee border. Also, a range of temps from “it will work” to “not a chance.” Much clarity added in the time you’ve been away!

Yep I was floored by that statement as well. full context: ”I’d like my chances with this if I was NE of Atlanta in NE GA so up thru the mountains & foothills of the Apps in NC and possibly even SW VALots to like about where these folks are sitting right now. When it comes to overrunning style winter storms, I’d much rather be worried about precip occurring than getting the cold air in time, because the precip almost always verifies much higher than forecast.”

CAMs will likely lead the way on this. Globals are not going to handle a WAA setup with great skill. Trends with short term model guidance will be the key from here on out.

We need you to come wade through our mess and be the voice of reason. You know how we get when there’s model madness. In the same boat as many of you! Hang in there, we’ll score eventually. Mother Nature hasn’t been too kind for eastern Tenn through the foothills of NC.

Our piece of energy is now coming ashore in northern Canada, so hopefully some clarity is added soon

I’d like to think with that upper level look, the cutoff wouldn’t be that sharp.

@Hvwardif you’ve recovered from that pitcher of beer, could you inject some hopium?

We’ll hug the RRFS A (no clue what that model is but I dig its output)

It’s the NAM but this will probably be quite the run