BooneWX

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1997357683729375599?s=46 a good read on the long range from one of the best at reading it

All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range.

Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches.

Much more expansive on 3k geez. Just a hair, and I mean jusssst a hair more digging and we have a Murphy to Manteo 2-4” event.

Surface depiction for the NAM is very similar to 18z, but again, it’s another model that looks improved under the hood. The ridge out west keeps trending taller, helping the shortwave drop a bit further before it scoots east.

NAM… sharper, further south and west

Fog creeping in heavily at my place - 35°

Not a great surface depiction but it was undeniably better under the hood

I’ll be first to admit that I wrote this one off early, but a couple more tweaks and it’s a legitimately big deal for a large part of this forum.

HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.

All of our chips are on the table for a lee side trough. Without it, nothing, with it……

That’d be the most excitement we’ve had in 3 years

Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me.

Clearing skies and wet grass, that frost is going to be serious. I’ll be close to passing my seasonal totals of late with just a few more chilly mornings.

Upslope only happens for us during hurricanes, you know the rules