BooneWX

Me during the great blizzard of 26 (speak it into existence) .

One of these days I’m going to sit outside by a fire with a winter storm warning and verification on the ground. When it happens, you’ll never catch me taking it for granted again.

I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range.

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit.

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

Shouldn’t have to go far. At some point the cold air will come with a clipper and going up 221 will be a short trek for you.

You’re a great poster TW! Chime in more. But you’re right. The ole rug pull is common around here. I’ve been most at peace with it this year than ever before. It is what it is. It hurts to see it happen but what can we do?

A lot of this comes down to the NAO. We’ve lost that stout blocking signature significantly. The early month period of cold was only going to be possible if the -NAO bullied the rest of the patten into submission. Mid-month onward, this is the first time (and I hate to say it), that I’m really starting to see some red flags on the cold forecast. On modeling it’s essentially the traditional ensembles vs AI. The AI ensembles are much more aggressive in favor of a cold pattern getting established by mid month so we’ll get a very good verification check in a week or two. Onto my red flags: what exactly is moving this pattern? PNA looks neutral-ish, we’re losing the -NAO. -EPOs are great, that should dump some cold into the conus but without a solid western ridge in place, my bet would be that it dumps into the Rockies and bleeds east slowly. That would be a modified mess, even if it makes it here. - MJO - stuck in the cod. This coupled with our meh teleconnections are combining for model volatility. We’re at a fork in the road and something has to give. - ENSO still favors a SER and we need help elsewhere to beat that down.

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The rollercoaster ride that keeps on giving

It’s not all bad imo. A surging ridge into Alaska and a trough east of Hawaii is an ideal look at this range. I’m wondering if we’re seeing some feedback issues… a lot of moving parts… windshield wiper effect. You’ve got a stout -NAO developing, a lot of active shortwaves embedded in the flow and a complete Pacific reshuffle commencing. I’m hard pressed to believe we’re even close to a final solution.

Cold dumps west and pumps a ridge that bridges with our -NAO. Not ideal.

The models giveth the models taketh

No one should be giving up. These are the same trash models that said it would be 75 today.

Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning