SnowDawg

10 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Great, so we have a strong opportunity at 38° and rain a few times later in the month.  And then guess what?  We get to Jan/Feb and we get °38 and rain again in a mild winter.  Give me Indian summers in October.  I'll save my below averages for Jan-Mar please.

Anybody in here see the 12z Euro control? One of the best modeled fantasy storms I've seen in a while. An absolute legend that will never happen lol

That surface low is still bouncing around a lot on guidance. We are definitely still in the window where big NW trends are on the table and if so then the focus of the dynamics probably shifts more into TN, KY, and OH. Just spitballing but maybe the reason for the SPC not really upping the ante for any specific region on Friday. 

This is definitely the worst winter I've seen for my backyard. Got a near 30 year record and have never seen a winter without measurable snowfall, and I imagine that streak goes back much much further. Definitely a few that cut it close but in the end there'd always be at least a dusting before all was said and done. Right now the only flakes I've seen were a few stray flurries the day after Christmas. I'm not giving up until climo says to, but I'm not optimistic at this point.

4 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

That's become your DP is so dang low the rain is freezing due to evaporative cooling on the way down.  It should turn over to plain rain before long.

Oh yeah I figured that, but hey its at least something interesting to look at for a minute.

Sleeting here with a bit of rain.

Idk if it'll matter but the HRRR is too warm on both temp and dewpoint and NAM is way high on dewpoint at least for my location. NAM has it around 51/28 and reality is 51/9.6. Not sure it'll matter much but we'll see I guess.

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The saddest part of this is it's so close to being a massive snowstorm. Bigger than last years. 

Yep even normal winter temps and this is a huge winter storm with a potentiay great ULL track to add more on the backside. What could've been....

Who knows if we have enough time to trend far enough but all guidance has ticked back south and east this morning. If it goes far enough that deform band will have a much better angle of approach into the area. Things are bleak, but I'm gonna stay hopeful for a surprise given that the dynamics are at least in place to produce one.

For whatever it may be worth, the HRRR looks a lot better at least as far as precip coverage goes with the deform band. As long as we can secure heavy rates under that upper level cold pool then we should at least get to see some heavy wet snow fall for a while.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Oh the precip isnt lost

It is though in the part of the storm that matters, when the upper level cold pool is over head. Remember even in those good NAM runs yesterday almost all of the snowfall was in the deform band. But with the more northerly track/angle of approach that band now tries to track over the mtns from the Tennessee side completely wringing it out. We ideally need to see things trend back south/southeast, a touch weaker, and probably a touch faster.

1 minute ago, Tacoma said:

Yep WSW are up for Asheville with 4 to 10 but when you go to the snow map it shows Buncombe County .9 inches of snow where as before this it was 2.7 inches of snow.  Shows Waynesville 3.2 and Brevard 2.3, that doesn't make sense.  

Was just looking at the same thing very confused. Totals cut across the board, rightfully so but still lol

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro was another step down. 

In some ways for sure. But it was the first run in a while on any model to come colder aloft. Something to at least keep an eye on cause despite the stronger vort cutting north quicker, logic also says it should have better dynamics for cooling if it can overcome the poor daytime timing.

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

too little too late unfortunately but glad to see it go.

 I'm more or less just glad to see it go to perhaps be more optimistic going into next winter.

That upper level cold just continues to arrive later and later and look more and more stale.

So just looking at the 06z Euro, I start by looking at the upper level chart and see that it ticked noticeably stronger with the ULL with a nearly identical track. I assumed this would lead to a better pull of upper level cold to work with but instead it did the exact opposite and continued to reduce the extent and intensity of the 850 mbar cold pool. Is this unfortunately just the models playing catch up on the ULL being cutoff from any real cold source to pull from?

In my experience HRRR is garbage on thermals. Good with convective processes and precip pattern when in range, but terrible with thermals. I remember it being off by 5-10 degrees at the surface for the ULL snow in February 2020.

Love the honesty in the Atlanta AFD this morning.

As of now, even on Day 3, there remains an abundance of questions
that we don`t quite have answers for, and frankly, may not fully
know until the event is underway. How deep and in what location will
the upper-level low set up? Cutoff upper lows are notoriously hard
to predict given the lack of steering flow aloft, yet the
positioning will determine where and when wintry precip begins. What
will temperatures be in the mid-levels of the atmosphere? Up until
this point, temperature profiles cooled continuously with elevation,
but now some models are showing temperatures above freezing between
the 700-850 hPa levels, right where the warm, moist conveyer belt
will set up which could turn wintry ptypes from snow to sleet. Will
the surface low drive a wedge front through the region and if so,
how far and how deep? This question could have significant impacts
for the I-20 corridor NE of Atlanta in terms of ptype duration late
Sunday morning and afternoon. How much snow will be able to
accumulate with temperatures in the mid 30s? How much will
temperatures drop if heavier snow does make it to the ground?

We have a lot of questions that will begin to slowly come into view,
but honestly, several wintry parameters are forecast to be on a
knife`s edge throughout this event and could easily go one way or
another. While we`re not anticipating any more impacts outside of
elevations over 1500 feet at this time, it`s still important to be
prepared, just in case, so please check back for future updates.

NAM was just a massive jump for a single run, similar to what the Euro did yesterday moving the jackpot zone all the way west of knoxville. Hopefully it's one of those windshield wiper over-corrections and it'll tick back east over its next few runs.

Trends have honestly been poor across most guidance since mid day yesterday. Which is not necessarily a bad thing as its rare to ride the jackpot zone all the way from 60+ hours out. I'd rather it do so now than a rug pull in the final 24 hours.

I gotta say, I think ground temps are talked about way too much in these situations. Ambient air temps matter and will be a problem for some, but I wouldn't worry too much about ground temps as long as the rates are there. Plus in my experience in top down cooling scenarios, if the rates are persistent they can literally drag freezing air to the surface. Warms up as soon as it moves out, but still aids in accumulation.

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Sueprised nobody has mentioned the hi res NAM. Its not fully into range but looks pretty awful. 

It's all the way at the end of its range for one, but honestly it doesn't look all that different from the 12k at the same timeframe. If rolled forward it would probably produce similar results, just finer details obviously. Now I know the NAM wasn't great for everybody but that's a whole different story.

11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Don't sweat it. They always come out the gate super slow. 

Yeah give them time. They usually react after the first few inches are on the ground lol. 

Three cheers for the death of La Niña!! 

GSP basically just went with the Canadian for now. It may not be what they said in the discussion, but it's definitely what's in their forecast grids. Don't you just love forecasting winter weather in the south lol? Euro and GFS both with 4-12 across the county about 60 hours from onset. Official forecast...all rain lol. Not even bashing them for it, it's the safest play for now.

Final snow map on NAM: