SnowDawg

Even acknowledging the sort of unpredictable luck with that band setting up in Atlanta, the NAM completely busted in the rest of North GA until finally getting a clue morning of the event. The rgem and the Euro both showed the warm nose changing us to sleet, and then going back to snow. Albeit the changeover on those two being an hour or so too slow. No model was perfect for the region as a whole, but overall I'd bet the Euro probably scored best which should probably come as no surprise.

Hi-res nam was absolute garbage in the SW mountains, GA, AL, MS, and TN. Its 18z run the night before the event still wasn't showing any snow in North GA, AL, or MS and incorrectly showed mixing way too far north in TN. Euro and RGEM were far superior to the NAM and it wasn't even close, I don't understand the praise it is getting.

Looks to me on the ensembles that the 3rd week of January definitely has some potential just gotta see where things go from here. Kind of has an arctic boundary/zipper low type look to it on the GFS.

Final total is impossible to measure here in Tiger, GA due to all the sleet and freezing rain compacting the previous snow. Ultimately, we've got a crusty 3 - 3.5 inches so I am estimating around 4-5 inches of snow/sleet fell all together with a glaze to a tenth of zr.

The NAM didn't nail anything from NE GA westward. It had pretty much no snow falling at all in North GA or Alabama until like 12 hours out. It had significant mixing going all the way to the TN/KY line. For this area RGEM/Euro were far superior, with HRRR a bit behind but still very good. 

Went through those bands in North GA too a while ago. Definitely best rates of the day. Put down another half inch on top of the crusty 3 that was there. Went out and enjoyed a little night sledding. Feels great to break the streak, now maybe we can land us a big dog before January is over with!

Absolutely dumping sleet here now with some snow mixed in. This should pile up if it keeps up.

Right at two inches maybe a bit over here in Tiger. Folks at GSP couldn't have forecasted better. Called for snow then sleet after 2, and have just switched over to mostly sleet in the last 5 minutes.

18 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Can you get in idea with spc. But you are correct.
The unca ballon launches will be telling.


.

I've just been looking at both 850 and 700 and assuming there's a slightly warmer layer somewhere between.

20 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Good now. 

Based on HRRR it is more elevated than that. Between 850 and 700 so unfortunately is gonna be a bit hard to track on the SPC maps.

1 minute ago, NEGa said:

Same. On the phone with my sister in athens and they just went to sleet

I've seen reports of sleet and freezing rain all the way into Dawsonville area.

Not loving reports of how fast the warm nose is working north in parts of GA. Was hoping to get to at least 3 or 4 this afternoon before going over to sleet but I'm not so now.

Crazy to see that frontogenesis band is stretching all the way to the South Carolina coast right now with some mping reports of a mix or even snow around Charleston.

Have seen reports of nearly 3 inches in west Atlanta suburbs (Paulding county) and a friend in McDonough south of the city saying there is at least an inch.

Just now, GaWx said:

I’m a proud Georgian who has watched the sleet change to all snow last 30 or so minutes! Beautiful and sticking to everything! Easily over 1/2” already from window estimate!

Congrats! You definitely made the right decision.

14 minutes ago, NEGa said:

That’s crazy that far south!

it’s snowing here and we aren’t that far apart so hopefully it starts there soon if it hasn’t already

Still waiting to saturate here, but hopefully shouldn't be long as better rates are slowly starting to push in.

That band SW of Atlanta is putting down accumulating snow in places that haven't seen it in a long time. Have seen reports of heavy snow covered roads as far as 50+ miles south of Atlanta. 

I don't really understand those snowfall outputs in North GA from model sites that are supposed to be taking sleet out, yet the majority of that adds up while it's showing sleet?

25/14 Clear, calm, and cold. Think we might beat the forecast low of 24.

Yeah GSP dropped my total as well by riding the NAM. Can't say they're wrong, but I am skeptical of it. Not saying I buy the HRRR/GFS with their 6-8 totals down here but I do think the NAM and SREF start mixing way too quick, based on historical experience. Closer to 4 or so with an inch of sleet and maybe a glaze feels more likely to me, as a compromise between the different model camps.

It seems even among the short term models the NAM is on an island right now. HRRR, GRAF, RGEM, Fv3, and RAP all look rather similar with regards to storm evolution. They also make more sense historically for the mtns foothills area in regards to a snow to sleet back to snow scenario that we've seen a thousand times. I'm not one to discount the NAM lightly, but these can't ALL be that wrong can they?

I guess I'm just riding with the Euro whether it's to glory or off the cliff. If these thermals ruin everything for North GA after sitting in the bullseye for over two days I'm gonna be depressed for a bit I think.

Didn't even come close to the forecast high of 43 today here. Hit 35 an hour ago and starting to drop off now.

It looks
increasingly likely, though, that the Upstate won`t escape at least
a small amount of ice, and that zones as far north as I-40 will
be under the gun for some sleet.  Dreams of an all-snow forecast?
Quashed.

Looks like GSP definitely not going with the Euro/Ukie/RGEM camp that don't have sleet getting anywhere near I-40.

Man, those NAM thermals are soul crushing for as good as things have looked for North GA over the past 48 hours. Only saving grace for now is I don't think these CAM models are reliable at the end of their range. Still showing at 18-24 hours out then might as well throw in the towel.