SnowDawg

I miss good flat west to east southern sliders...

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

East TN could get 10-12 inches of snow out of this. Just not our type of system. We need a true gulf tap and gulf low with a 50/50 low and strong HP in NE. 

Historically the 50/50 and a gulf low that actually phases and bombs out as it leaves is the most important ingredients.

But it really does seem lately that without the CAD high, it feels downright impossible to score a significant area wide storm.

46 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ve been overly pessimistic of late but idk yall. I’ve got a weird feeling about this one in a good way.

We can switch places for now I guess. Cause I've been trying to be really positive the last month or so, but this one's got me down in the dumps right now with every model out there pretty much saying if I see anything it's gonna be rain. Missing this one will put me at two full calendar years without measurable snow after previously never having had a single winter without at least a trace. 

Definitely not loving the 40s and rain starting to show up but I'll try not to panic for now. Need precip to move in by Monday morning to help lock in thermals I think.  

It amazes me that these can be that different at just 144 lol. Euro doesn't have the high pressure out front over the Atlantic or overtop in SE Canada. Problem is we don't know which one is the crazy one.

Yeah the ingredients are there for a big storm with the second wave if we can get it to come together right. I think the GFS is a little too north with its track right now given the CAD high and decent confluence from the first storm. 

At this point I'm more interested in what we've got to do to get under that initial finger of precip.

The trend is just not our friend with regards to healthy cyclogenesis in time for western areas. For what feels like the thousandth year in a row the northern stream continues to just entirely overwhelm the pattern. Someone must've forgot to let it know about the El Niño year.

Despite the fun OP runs yesterday, the ensemble largely favored suppression the whole time. We've gotta have stronger earlier cyclogenesis. 

The GFS has been remarkably consistent around the evolution of the storm. It's wobbled back and forth on the southward extent of the PV lobe and the LP track and timing. All to be expected at this range. That being said, it does have Euro like solutions within its ensemble. 

I'd be prepared for at least one more big swing from the models after today's big cutter clears and resets the playing field. Even then, given the complex nature and so many moving pieces, this could end up coming down to the wire on having any real confidence in a solution.

Yeah generally the same look overall, pv lobe just a bit further north. Too small of changes to nitpick over at this range. Interesting trend of that HP to the northeast trying to hang out a bit longer. Could help slow our system down, and maybe even deliver a bit of CAD to help with temps.

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This was probably the coldest GFS run since January 2018. Just keeps reinforcing cold shots the entire time after the 17th

Yep, verbatim it's winter weather potential all the way to the end of the run.

GFS Ensemble favors suppression at the time which is not a bad place to be. Don't wanna be in the bullseye yet.

EPS has led the way with this look so far. Started trending that way a day or two ago. Glad to see GFS moving that way. Long ways to go though. At least theres something to track.

Well got a solid dusting on elevated surfaces, but nothing out in the yard. So for me, I'm not counting it as a measurable event. Still shutout for the 2nd year in a row right now. All it takes is one surprise though, in a generally favorable 500 mbar pattern going forward.

EPS again says it's too early at this point to give up on the threat. Mean low pressure track is south and east of the OP. Many members are establishing a defined low as early as the northern gulf/FL panhandle area. Then it's a mixed bag of inland and offshore tracks. Snow means increased a bit over the mountains from 0z. 

I think the wedge boundary may be protecting us from the higher winds for now at least.

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Will the cold make it over the apps though

Your guess is as good as mine. We're talking OP models at 10 days, we'd be just as well off throwing cans of blue and orange paint agaisnt the wall.

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Op Euro warms up quickly after the miss next week. Not a good look

Looks temporary. Blocks still in place and another shot on its way SE with PNA starting to push north.

With that block and 50/50 in place, if the PNA can pump enough for a wave to dig I'd say that's a threatening look for around the 20th. 

EPS mean is way SE of the OP with the low track. Members are all over the map, so no real consensus forming at this point. If you take the GFS progressive bias and the Euro's amplification bias, an in the middle solution might work for a light/moderate event for at least part of the forum. I'm not leaning one way or the other at this point, there's probably still big model shifts coming as these two big storms set the playing field.

3.59" already and radar remains juicy. Definitely heading for 6+ at this rate.

That first wave that came through was all sleet here. Silly as it may be, was nice to see something other than rain for the first time all winter lol. Now to enjoy the last few moments of dry, as that slug of moisture coming in from the south is looking mighty impressive.

So you're telling me there's a chance...

16th/17th definitely a consistent threat both on OP and Ensemble runs at this point, but it's gonna be a tricky one to track given the uncertainty that these two anomalously strong storms between now and then are going to cause in the models. Particularly the 2nd one this weekend, as it appears likely to phase with the TPV lobe and exactly where that big low sets up ahead of our target wave will have big impacts. Ideally, we need it to trend east as close to the 50/50 region as we can get it, as opposed to further west where the 12z GFS showed it.

16th/17th was really close and certainly not a bad look 9 days out. Ensemble actually has a suppressed look for that storm at the moment.

I think it's clear that at least for a period, cold air supply will not be a big problem. It's gonna come down to storm track. Really need a well timed PNA spike to keep a wave from cutting, but not so strong to suppress the pattern too much and send it out to sea. Snow is never easy in the south.