SnowDawg

51 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Op Euro maintains a SE Ridge throughout the 10 day period. Is this another instance of the cold showing up 2 weeks then it never arrives? 

I wouldn't say it's a delay, the first cold shot arrives right on time it's just transient because the PV lobe is stuck out west instead of slowly sliding up under our NAO block. I think at times, especially with these anomalous pv type cold shots the models can have feedback issues with the Rockies. 

This was the December 2022 cold blast on the Euro at day 10, stuck in the Rockies. We ended up cold and dry though which is certainly a worry. As always there's more ways for things to wrong than right, especially at the lead times we're talking. We may have an idea but I doubt we've seen yet just how this is going to go on modeling.

Considering how much he's enjoyed destroying all our hope the last few years, this is one person I'm glad to see on board lol

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1743727117710368793?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup on my search for a big SE winter storm when MJO was strong on the right:

 Couldn’t find any when right side strong like GEFS has (amp 2+) but found 3 big and 2 moderate storms when MJO was right side moderate (like EPS has):

-1/24/1991: mod SN ATL-CLT; mod phase 4

-3/13/1993: historic SN for many; mod phase 4

-12/18/1996: mod SN ATL-GSP; mod phase 5

-1/9-10/2011: big storm for many; mod phase 5-6

-1/17/2018: big storm for many; mod phase 4

 So, the progged MJO is a negative factor as most of us already knew. However, if it would end up moderate like the EPS instead of the GEFS’ strong, history says that there’d be a shot at a moderate to big winter storm over a good portion of the SE should the SE get as cold as the EPS shows (5-10 BN averaged over up to 10 days). Note that 3 of the 5 were during 1/9-24, in/near the progged cold period and near coldest climo though none were during El Niño.

 How was NAO/AO/PNA/EPO during these 5?

1. NAO range was -0.3 to +1.3.

2. AO range was wide: -3.4 to +2.2 (3 +, 2 -)

3. PNA range VERY narrow: -0.2 to -0.4

4. EPO range -320 to +60 with 4 of 5 strong -

 
So, weak -PNA and strong -EPO prevailed.  None had a moderate or stronger -NAO. AO all over the place.

 Has anyone seen an EPO prog?

Last I saw was this from the Euro weeklies a couple days ago. 

Yeah I can't remember the last time ice was accurately modeled in my location. Either it busts warm like last night, or the surface cold ends up just deep enough to support mostly sleet. The latter has been a saving grace several times in the last 10-20 years for me, while just to my south they have had some devastating ice storms.

Been warming pretty steadily here for a bit. Getting a moist south/southeast flow at the surface raising temps and dews.

Just now, Chuck said:

It's not the long range that we are having trouble with. Those have produced, what, three feet of snow for us already. It's the short range and now casts that are disturbing! 

I mean sure I guess, but we have barely even had a long range genuinely favorable look for winter storms this winter. This brief early January window was the first period that looked promising at a distance, and arguably we got two near misses out of it. One sheared and suppressed to the south a couple days ago and one CAD setup without enough antecedent cold air or strong enough high.

2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I'm starting to lean towards adopting my wife's rule. When I stick my head out the door and see it snowing I'll bite! 

Genuinely jealous of people who didn't fall into the trap of this hobby. Weather models are basically crack from what I can tell. Everytime I try to tell myself to just stop looking, I find myself waking up at 2am just to sneak a peak at the Euro lol

Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10. 

Classic case of the Euro looking worse simply because it only goes out 240. That mid-month time period is exactly when we should expect the blocking to start shifting the cold eastward. Everything over the top still looks great on the Euro though, blocking going bonkers by the end of the run and the NAO retrograding westward.

6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Yall really can't win for losing here the past couple years down there. I thought for sure with the amount of moisture coming through it would bust through that dry level.

I'm sure I'll hear it on the FB posts from the website over the next couple days LOL

We had temp issues anyway, still in the 40s, so really wouldn't have mattered but I was definitely shocked to not even see so much as a sprinkle.

Man I hope that happens. I will happily stay up Friday night for a nice front end thump of snow. Haven't seen snow on the ground imby since Jan 2022 and even though rain would eventually ruin it, it'd be nice just to see again lol

19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo

If the blocking is as advertised then this flip to -WPO may be the last piece of the puzzle we need, allowing the cold to bleed eastward off the plains. Frankly, this can be better than an arctic blast being dropped right on top of us and suppressing everything to Cuba. But the question as always remains, will these positive changes ever actually come to fruition?

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

A lot of the long range guidance has gone back to SE Ridge and cold dump in the west..

Yeah, almost certainly MJO related. EPS moved towards the GFS idea of getting into phase 4, instead of stalling into the COD at phase 3. Just one run, so could change. And even so, any warm period would likely be brief given the changes still advertised in the higher latitudes, and that the MJO is still likely heading into the COD even if it does get into phase 4 for a bit. Mid January thaw is an expected part of strong Niño so I'm not panicking over it yet.

I think the writing has been on the wall for a while now that our winter will be make or break on peak Niño climo from late Jan through all of Feb coming through for us. Lucky for us it really only takes one good storm down here.

I think the GFS/GEFS is showing it's progressive bias with the MJO, leading to its outlier warm signal. Both EPS and GEPS are stalling around phase 3 and look about as good as we can ask for by mid month. Just look at this ridge bridge over top of north America, with a crazy strong west based -NAO. 5 day average for the 12th-17th.

Just got NAM'd!! Too bad it's the NAM at range lol.

Yeah, EPS and GEPS both have good looks at H5 into the longterm. I think a broader trough gives us more chances at timing up cold air with the stj waves, as opposed to these sharp troughs dropping in right on top of us right now and trying to get lucky with phasing.

Hopefully the GFS/GEFS is out to lunch with its insistence on se ridge showing up. If we get a raging SE ridge in prime climo El niño then I'm convinced the super niño back in 2016 broke something in the Pacific, and we have a new winter base state outside of enso impacts.

That system on the 4th is starting to trend back towards maybe delivering at least a light snow for some ahead of the admittedly longshot that is next weekend. I know last year has made us all jaded and as pessimistic as can be, but I do think it's good to remember how out of nowhere sometimes decent little events can sneak up on us. 

It needs more spacing, especially from behind with the western trough dropping in. The wave in front needs to get well out front and amp up in the 50/50 region to increase confluence and give just enough cold to work with. And the trough behind needs to trend west/slower to stop heights rising too much in the east inducing warmth and an inland track. Odds are probably 90/10 against us at best, but what else have we got to talk about.

1 minute ago, Tacoma said:

I like our chances for the NC mountains and SC mountains plus N Georgia for the 7 th storm.  Looking like there is a high chance from what I see.  

I wouldn't call it a high chance, but certainly still a chance. Looked like around a quarter of GEFS members with over an inch in those areas. Enough of a signal to bear watching but it's gonna be a close call. 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime 

Unfortunately that wasn't just a feature last year, it has largely become our background base state for the last 7 years. 

Silver lining for the rest of January is that the Niño should dampen the SE ridge and allow the Arctic boundary of a broad trough to occasionally flex far enough SE to time up a stj wave running along it for at least parts of the forum.

Whether it's snow, rain, or nothing for us we need that system around the 4th to phase, deepen, and move into the 50/50 region to give us our best shot at something widespread with the following system on the 7th/8th. The GEFS was really sending a solid signal for it at 18z but even the ensemble is jumping around wildly, so clearly things are far from settled good or bad for next week. Canadian shows the potential if we can time things up right. 

Really is a nice look, just can't get any highs over top of our storms this year. Even a weak CAD high would make all the difference at the surface.

32 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Oddly enough, I’m torn because I feel like more times than not, a SWE means suppression city for storm tracks. I really think we need to time up the NAO and PNA for one frickin time in our lives. We’ve had a ton of one or the other but not a lot of both in recent years. 
 

you may certainly be right though. This side of the globe is almost devoid of cold and we need that to change in a big way to have a chance. It’s alarming when places like Buffalo and Chicago really haven’t even been able to muster up a decent storm and we’re almost to January.

The northern stream is still stuck on La Niña and making things harder than usual. This upcoming stretch would be extremely favorable, especially for light to moderate area wide events, but the northern stream is just on overdrive and mostly shredding and crushing all of our southern waves. Without the Atlantic blocking to backup the flow it's an extreme game of thread the needle to get a phase to happen at the perfect time. I still think we can score in this 10 day stretch or so, it just looks more complicated than it did before.

As for later on, many signs still point to a potential blockbuster late January and February but only time will tell. A warming event would certainly help to likely lock in a -NAO.

6.23 with maybe a bit more to come. Was I too focused on early January or were totals like this not forecast at all? 

7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The operational 00Z GFS is garbage for us now outside of 7 days when it was looking so promising.  It's starting to look like last year all over again.

Maybe we get a little snow with the ULL swinging through in 7 days.

 

 

Yep. There's still time for things to flip back but with how northern stream dominant things have suddenly become I'd swear we're looking at a La Niña cold spell. Pretty much kills any shot at something simple like a weak slider. Will take much more complicated phasing and timing. We haven't exactly done complicated very well in recent history.