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ajr

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Everything posted by ajr

  1. ajr
    The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits
  2. ajr
    Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system
  3. ajr
    18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90
  4. ajr
    Might be premature, but just ordered a sled for my son
  5. ajr
    Not just you - you can see the cold air from Canada slowly making it further into CONUS at the 850 level
  6. ajr
    Sounds like perfect timing
  7. ajr
    18z GEFS is going to be more surpressed it looks
  8. ajr
    All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out?
  9. ajr
    the 12z EURO is taking the low off the GA coast with plenty of cold air above
  10. ajr
    Agree.. looking at sounding at hr 180 verbatim when the low is approaching KILM, you can see the warm nose clearly.. then looking at the winds at the 850mb level, you can see the SE flow we don't want.
  11. ajr
    I think it's way too early to draw up the freezing lines - certainly we're not favored here, but it's not a bad look yet
  12. ajr
    Meanwhile HRRR is making things interesting for RDU...
  13. ajr
    I just don’t see how Raleigh’s temp profile supports anything the models are spitting out
  14. ajr
    I remember that tool (among others) being an epic bust last January.
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