STILL N OF PIKE

You will def beat the traffic ...

I was looking for something less generalized I.e help to see a link to shear forecasts over next 6-24 hours Levi probably covers this in his next tropical tidbits video , yesterday he had showed conditions favorable by 15z but I was looking for something like cimss maps show but for future

Wxwatcher when does shear start to abate 32 knots of shear seems rough

Seems huge . Those tilted systems always seems to max around 70-80 mph as they take too long to put themselves Back together in away that promotes serious strengthening and Intensity models Are not reliable enough gauging the separation between the tilted lows So it seems that a now cast of that Situ is key to intensity and even perhaps track ( as 12z models may not have a good grasp of each till We see how tilted Henri is to midnite or so

I think that needs to be watched for a more prolonged w/ wsw motion . So far there are no ensembles that take it far enough WSW to miss the N turn from Ohio valley trough Friday , so I assume that idea is off the table and this is basically a lock to make it east of OBX and be somewhere well off Delmarva by Saturday evening

Some of the EPS members that take this further west at lower latitudes (before the N turn) bring this N and NNW into central L.I

Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua. It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action

Almost leads me to believe models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . Next 24 hours (as usual) are huge for models as Those features come into better focus

Guidos , IROC-z’s and gold chains floating down the mystic river

Euro finally woke up to the idea of a closer system . Sorta sad performance imo

Watah up the habah

Yup , getting a nice beat down and pushed And squished wsw . Based on Cimss shear profiles i think shear is beginning to turn from N/NE to ENE direction so maybe less relative shear as this begins to move more in the direction shear is pushing However , you can also see a little bump up in mid level shear (NE shear ) to the west on the cimss products, so if I’m reading that right ..shear could actually worsen overall even if it slightly improved today in low levels meh i dunno , it improves Friday am

Henri keeps subtly losing more latitude

Ack?

A little nammy to start you off sir ..

I can see the northerly shear sort of smushing the NW portion of Henry . Last few frames He may have a bit of a battle next 18 hours

Sensual ?

How much did tamarack measure in that one

Let’s see what a bit of increased N shear does to our friend Henry Over the next 30 hours or so . Then Friday Am looks favorable again

In mid August...No

Any sane person is cranking that

How would ACK do on that track

Done

He’s a cane right now imo , not that it matters much I think with the little burst of N shear forecast tonite they *may* want to see if he can hold on to his current structure , they don’t want to upgrade then downgrade and confuse the poor public

Jay, maybe the News can send you to Block island We could use another Shelby Scott , someone they just stick in the roughest conditions for live reports . It’s like they would Send her out with a tent and some MRE’s to report on a ORH snowstorm