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snjókoma

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Everything posted by snjókoma

  1. Never declare a NAM'ing before its happened.
  2. Here's an interesting Wes quote from CWG's latest article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/18/wednesdays-winter-storm-heres-how-much-snow-ice-expect-when/?utm_term=.11cac9f926f8 I'm definitely keeping my expectations low. This is a great setup for the NW folks.
  3. No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+
  4. GFS is gonna be a big hit for DC. All snow and pounding at 18z (1 PM), heaviest band shifted a bit north from the last run.
  5. BWI: 4.6" DCA: 1.8" IAD: 3.5" RIC: 0.4" Tiebreaker: 1.25" Edited on 2/19/19
  6. The GFS has functionally shown the same thing for the past five runs. Pretty impressive consistency on putting the heaviest band just south of DC. Could be consistently wrong.
  7. As usual it’s a bit hard to decipher, but I think HM’s tweet here relates to what the GFS might be hinting at. if you’re in the band, you’re busting high with good ratios and dynamics. GFS wants to put it in north-central VA, NAM has it between DC and the M/D. If you’re not, it’s gonna be weak sauce with sh*tty ratios.
  8. It's actually been very consistent at putting the heaviest WAA snows in a narrow Harrisonburg-EZF corridor.
  9. I think the discussion tonight has been pretty nice, and not overly negative. Funny what an actual threat does to the morale of the board.
  10. Evident southeast shift in the axis of heavier snow. Exactly what we want to see. 18z: 00z:
  11. Thumpity thump thump, thumpity thump thump, look at the NAM go. Thumpity thump thump, thumpity thump thump, giving us lots of snow.
  12. Yes, the inner suburbs had a WSW that busted. I think it was a couple degrees to warm.
  13. NAM is interesting... burst of heavy snow, dryslot, and then sleet/rain with temperatures just below 32.
  14. 11/15/18: 2.0" 1/12-13/19: 10.3" 1/17/19: 1.3" 1/29/19: 0.5" 2/1/19: 1.6" 2/10/19: 0.6" Total as of 2/17/19: 16.3"
  15. Wow, we have liberals from Carroll county and conservatives from Arlington! And they're all good people, too.
  16. That shirt must get you death glares in Carroll county lol...
  17. Wow, that seems like an unusually small amount of variance for more than 100 hours out. Strong support for the OP.
  18. wtf is going on... dumpster fire gif
  19. Uhh, the CMC ticked south and is strictly worse than its 00z run for the majority of the area.
  20. Interesting how the heaviest precipitation takes on a SW to NE pattern at hr 54 on the GFS... coastal influence?
  21. Germany was our enemy not so long ago. Not sure why we care about their weather models.
  22. What’s the read on temperatures Saturday? Do we get at or below freezing?
  23. Mostly meaningless stat, but GFS has DCA getting below freezing only twice in the next 9 days. Two six-hour periods. Illustrates the problems with mixing and temps that would arise in any light precipitation event.
  24. GFS has light snow to light rain for early next week.
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