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the_other_guy

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Everything posted by the_other_guy

  1. Why would they talk about next week when we have a board of experts and enthusiasts that cant really tell us what will happen 2 days from now. We have already established that models are pretty variable outside 72 hours. Next week may not happen at all. Certainly no way to tell if we have threatening floods until we are 2-3 days out, right? No reason for unwarranted hysteria. This board would do well with that advice too
  2. this hasn’t trended anywhere. It’s in the same spot it was yesterday at this time on models. What you have here are guys hanging on every single model run for better or worse. But just to cut through everything, it is showing the same exact positioning on the euro that it did yesterday at this time. A 287 storm
  3. when you take out all the model variations and everything like that this is what it’s been telling us for a couple of days now. Not much on the coast, maybe a few slushy inches in the city and immediate northwest burbs, and as you approach 287, you may get closer to 6 inches
  4. There are three lines in Westchester. One at the Cross County. One at 287. One where the Taconic and Sprain meet. Below Cross County you deal with northern NYC forecast. Above that you get progressively snowier with each line. 287 being the big line
  5. They don’t know what they’re rooting for. We’re seeing what sticks. One has it north and strong. one has it east and weak. But both those equal the same thing snow then rain. one because it’s not strong enough to pull cold air in and one because it’s too far north, and brings us warm air. The rest are somewhere in between. Long story short if you live near 287 you’re gonna have a good day. If you live in Long Beach, you’re gonna have a bad day. If you live in city youre gonna have a miss near enough to stay tuned
  6. Very common on clear winter mornings. Get used to it. SE inland radiates very well! Much better than NYC metro
  7. Look at the huge change in just 20 years! How fucking scary!
  8. Ill take it. So will most at this point
  9. I like that there’s a storm that we are tracking with this. Makes it all seem possible at least briefly
  10. if you live in the suburbs, you’ll be below freezing on the first. But I get your point.
  11. never really works out like that though for them. If they get snow and we don’t, it’s because the storm went out to sea below us. It is very rare where they are getting snow, and we are getting rain simply because they are so much warmer than us. It almost discounts the fact that they are a bit west, and inland.
  12. they will be less affected by AGW than us in terms of cold lows. They don’t have an urban heat island, and they are inland. What is missing in this discussion is that the days that go below freezing have the potential to be much lower up here than they do down there. what is alarming is how few days New York City is now going below freezing. 8% of days. really on the cusp of saying this is no longer a winter city if this continues unabated Looking into 2024, I dont see many night below freezing for CPK thru mid month
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