CNY-WXFREAK

The next few days is pot luck as pretty much every piece of guidance has a different solution as it can't just be straight forward like most rain storms are!

Keep getting these reach around cold shots that come in from the SW but you guys out in WNY are sure benefiting from this pattern thats for sure so at least one area is!

LOL, the event for tomorrow night through Thursday according to the Euro is now a ENY event, lol, this is getting better and better!  Heck, I'd start rooting for a record low snowfall for 18-19' at this rate as every event has practically done everything to avoid the CWA so good job.  We're down to amslab of ice on most trails and without any real precip on its way for CNY, after this brief but cold few days we warm and whatever's left will melt for sure and then we gotta start all over again and by that time we're in the second week of February, stick a fork in 18-19 and Buffalo wins the snowball contest!

Can't post the Euro map so if Wolfie can then all will see.  Maybe its a blip as it was steady for our area for days and now it went East by a considerable margin so....

Well there ya go then, lol, cause I'm not familiar at all with any past events and haven't even looked at these events in depth cause alls I see is WSW-SW winds all day every day for the foreseeable future so good for you guys out there as it had to arrive sooner ot later as we go deeper into below normal levels as we're at 11" close to 12 actually as of today so things better start changing as I'm sure they will.

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Interesting...was thinking the Tuesday night to Wed night period would be the best shot for northtowns, but per this maybe dry air will hold things down during that time.  Hopefully things trend better and we start to at least see some watches pop up in WNY by tomorrow afternoon. 

Too cold for sure especially with 850's down to -25-30C thats just nuts, lol, the atmosphere will be hard pressed to hold much if any moisture and I think that's why they mentioned the B word in some of their previous discussions as they mentioned wind speeds and the fine powdery pixie dust like nature to the snow so we'll see.

23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Total snow accumulations
from Monday evening to Wednesday night will range from 3 to 6 inches
across the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes
to 4 to 8 inches across the western Southern Tier and 10 to 18
inches east of Lake IOntario. Gusty winds during this time will
promote areas of drifting and blowing snow which will greatly reduce
visibilities. At this time, confidence is high enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for east of Lake Ontario.

I don't even know where I'm located anymore, lol, as I thought I was in CNY and NOT the Finger lakes, WTF?  So. Oswego County should be considered N-CNY and down by Skeaneatlas  more closer to the FL's but my area is right in the middle but has no real name for the area I guess.  So I guess I'll go with 4-8" cause we're most certainly not getting 10-18" thats for damn sure!

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

It looks like next week will be dominated by a WSW/SW flow, not sure why I have high end pops all week, probably be watching a mile north get hammered lol

This system on Monday/Tuesday still looks ok with about 3/4"-1"+ liquid on the majority of models..

yeah for you, lol!

look at how disgustingly close we are to that band CNY, lol!

Oh and I guess all the talk pf a mix perhaps Tomorrow thru Wed but I guess that can be thrown out the window and after next weeks cool down we're gonna need a couple -few days to recuperate, lol!

Balmy, lol!

DC approaching 70F, nice!

I also didn't notice much dsling in the Finger Lakes as they got just as much precip as we did this morning when that batch came through!

Look at the hole over KROC and pts east, RLMAO!  This is one pattern that I will never ever ask for that's a guarantee, horrific!

20 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

Surprised there is no WWA for southern Erie and Wyoming county. It's gotta be pretty nasty in that band

No need I don't think as there's a CF that's about to take the band with it, lol, then perhaps another will set-up on a more 270 flow??

Sounding out of KFZY at 07Z and it looks like the band up North finally makes its way down but in what form and for how long? lol.  It won't be a single band and it'll op right off the lake once it passes Oswego so......  maybe an inch or two as it drops but then heads back North quickly in response to Tomorrows event.

You have a good chance of getting crushed Wolf, for sure, so we'll see and variables are off the hook, look at sng, wow!

It actually has the band dropping South this evening for a few hrs.  That band up in Watertown is just awesome with a cyclonic curvature to it, wow, and it extends the whole length of the lake!

Suns out, nice 10 minute squall and I believe the KBGM map over KBUF any day, lol!

It goes from .2"  in the sw corner of Onondaga county to 1.5"  in NE corner of Oswego county, lol.  Thats less than 40 miles, so this should be good.

It's gonna be interesting to watch the radar the next couple days as some models have us getting .2 lq eq and some 1" lq eq so I don't know what to think.

What down-sloping, lol?

CMC just loves snow, too bad it doesn't deliver, lol

Can't even watch it on radar as the returns dry up as they approach only to blossom to my N and E, so funny!

00Z Nam looks ok I guess

RLMAO!

That down-sloping screws everything up to its East as the model can't resolve where the DS'ing ends as its a DSing issue vs a upsloping event over me, lol!

No cold intrusions will lock and hold, all transient!