CNY-WXFREAK

By late in the day Wednesday, the snows will settle into more
of a west northwest flow lake effect regime. Ice coverage on
Lake Erie will limit accumulations, but still could see local
accumulations of a few inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and
Boston Hills. The Lake Ontario lake snows should be more
impressive with additional amounts near a foot highly probable
on the Tug Hill. Wind speeds will drop off but still strong
enough to produce areas of blowing snow

It happens all over again in a few days but with more warm air, lol!

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Right!?!? How is that possible? This GD storm track is paved in stone. Jesus

its more of an orientation of the HP or shall I say the position.  If all of these LP's were riding ahead of these HP's then we'd be rejoicing right now but its Breaking Bad for us as usual!

12K pops a real nice band at the end of the run which is 10PM Wed which will probably drop a bit further South as a secondary arctic front comes through.

Its amazing how easy it is for a 1000mb SLP to move a 1040HP.

Its gonna snow super hard for about 4-6hrs tomorrow.

Just now, CNY_WX said:

Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. 

Yeah their dead wrong about that one for sure!

Channel 9 is always conservative but warranted this yr, lol!

Our biggest concern right now should be the massive H700 Dry-Slot thats gonna engulf all of W-CNY after the snow thump and

2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Decent map.

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Total

The NWS threw the NAM out completely, lol, what a horrific model, wow!

There's a ton of cold air just to our North being transported down through the Northeast.  Stiff NE winds are bringing down some very cold air so..........

Temps were supposed to get to the low 30's meanwhile we never made it out of the 20's.  I think were looking at a colder storm and a quicker transfer as I doubt that SLP moves all that HP to our North so we'll see.  

rainstorm after rainstorm after rainstorm, lol!!

Yeah 06Z Euro bumped up totals big time!

Precip all along the South Shore just shot up and over 1" liq eq on the Euro so perhaps as the system jumps the Rockies its getting better sampled as I wholeheartedly believe when a system is over the inter-mountain region, along the Rockies, its just not sampled properly, cause this will be the third time now a system, after its passed, and starts to redevelop along the lee side of the Rockies, and it moves out into the open plains everything changes.

But who cares, back to the weather, Watch the Parent SLP today where it forms and how it moves.

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

And people care about your ravings? 

I did like the Canadian at one time. You are correct buddy. But it hasn’t done well this year. 

Look, I understand you guys getting hostile. I do. I’m being a pessimistic little bitch. But can none of you see that the ICON has done well this year? Come on? I can’t be the only one? 

And Wolfie, the North country does well on upslope after the punch. You know that. I’m talking change over. So sure the north country gonna get 6”+. 

But the big models had 18” all week. Come on. 

No Dave, when your right your right, but this time you are wrong, sorry!  It did well with one event his yr, the NE wind event for the KROC area but what about every other event?  Your basing your whole argument on one event that it got close to correct?

If that parent LP gets up to GB like some globals have it, we mix and probably go over to rn for a while, s I'm not confident we even make wsw criteria right now, lol!

Event will be here in less than 24hrs and we'll see which model does the best, K!

Its so bad the the NE forum use's it as their last last resort behind the Frenchie, lol, yeah the French have a model, lol!

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Icon showed all rain all week..It now has 4"-6" on the front end, it has already FAILED..

It's a horrific model point blank.  Its so bad thats its not included in verification scoring, lol, but your other favorite is, the CMC, lol!

Just now, rochesterdave said:

You guys seriously saying the ICON hasn’t been great with totals? In Roc it’s just dominated. 

Yeah, I used to just look at it for kicks and thought it was a joke. But not any more. 

Resolution isn’t everyWe thing. The new GFS has the most resolution and the big mets already say it’s terrible.

We DON"T care about KROC!  The Big Mets vs 's what the small, lol?  Just stop please, WOW 

Good cause no one really cares about your call. lol!  

Nothing but cutter after cutter on the long range so I would really except that fact that this Winter is toast and I wish we can just turn a switch and head into Spring but no dice.  The worst part is that El Nino's are notorious for having late Spring starts so that is just horrible if that comes to fruition.  What a disappointing Winter and one where I thought was off to a great start in November then it took a drastic turn for the worst but they happen every so often but lately they've been happening way too often!

The ICON is a worthless piece of garbage but when I saw the GFS come in a tick or two warmer with tonights 00Z then I got a bit worried so we wait for the Euro to put the nail in the Coffin!

First guess:'

SKYR  4" then slop for several hrs then 2-3" on the backend so totals 4-7"

KFZY  5" then slop for several hrs the 3-4" on backend so totals 5-9"

KWRT  Heavy Snow 12-18" lolli's of 24+ with backside upslope flow, congrats Matt

KROC  1-2" then slop for most of the vent then backend snows 1-2" totals 2-4"

KBUF 2-3" snow then slop hor remainder of event without much backend anything so 1-3" 

KBGM 1-2" front end then rain then back to sn showers but no accumulation so 1-2" 

I doubt anyone see's warnings from this except places to our N&E like Northern Oneida, Herkimer and most of the Mohawk Valley and the Dacks should do fairly well with this set-up but further up in ME is where it really gets a crankin!