TPAwx

9:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 Location: 17.6°N 78.1°W Moving: NNE at 7 mph Min pressure: 896 mb Max sustained: 180 mph

2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.5°N 78.3°W Moving: WNW at 3 mph Min pressure: 906 mb Max sustained: 175 mph

Early AM Tuesday

0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run.

And 113 for peak heat index. Summers are getting unreasonable here.

40-year NOVA alum watching from afar. Great pics and looks like a nice winter event for most of you! All those winters up there trained me to never count on the high-end scenarios from any model run. 4+ is pretty good, even if a bummer after signals for much higher totals.

GEFS has two main clusters. Largest into Central America, other to NE tip of Yucatán or just East and across Gulf to far SW FL.

Well this GFS op goes to 922 before heading to the NE Yucatán. Assume this ends up between Ft Myers and Marco later in the run.

GEFS has a cluster moving over the Yucatán into the Gulf to the FL central West Coast, and a second moving over Western Cuba into South FL.

That’s fair, especially so if it was just one run in isolation. GFS is getting persistent with signaling a strong TC into the Gulf and landfalling on FL West Coast next week. 18z has a 2 or 3 landfalling just north of Crystal River next Wednesday.

Nothing to see here. Just a major landfalling on FL West Coast a week before Thanksgiving.

A few EPS members shift east but remainder are into central Gulf.

Just one run but some eastward clustering.

A few GEFS members go over west/central Cuba then cut across SE Florida and out to sea.

12z GFS op has a major in the Eastern Gulf at 300+. Obviously too far out at this point.