eduggs

If we want to make statistical inferences based on "blocking," I think we have to define the term a lot more precisely. Right now the term is thrown around very unscientifically. It matters a lot how we define it and the specific region we are referring to.

Rain deep into interior Quebec on back to back to back storms has gotta be unusual for late December.

It's something.

The models started shifting away from us on December 15 and just keep going in the wrong direction. It's a familiar feeling.

The 500mb progression looks dreadful on all guidance out at least 7 days. Although I suppose the storm around NYE could correct more favorably. It looks a lot like tonight's event.

Seeing page after page of long range teleconnections and too-small-sample size statistics is never a good sign for snow threats. 

57 minutes ago, wdrag said:

What do you think about this digging?  I see wet snow...  but maybe I'm biased to the NAEFS and naturally biased to snow. This is starting to show confluence...a bit too far north...but I like how the GEFS is trying to carve out a hole in New England.  Might be too little too late but this is still 7 days out... plenty of time to change. 06z GEFS 500MB members and mean. 

I see another New England snow event   Decent mean trof position, but I'd like to see more amplitude. Trying to keep the faith that something finally breaks right locally.

Some very localized banding still ongoing.  Some areas still seeing .5" per hour plus.

Looks like most of Morris County NJ was spared major snowfall.  Some drifts here and there but it's not very deep.  There was high impact to yesterday's evening commute, but nothing significant after about 3 hours of moderate to heavy snow.

This seems like the kind of storm that would have been pretty well forecast locally in the years before model data overload. It was apparent that the mid and upper level synoptics were not ideal for snow as recently as Tuesday. Snowmap overload also doesn't help.

Hard not to be a little jealous of the Williamsport - Binghamton - Albany crew.  Just hours and hours of dumpage up there.  Fluffy, high ratio, deep powder.  In the end, we were not really even close to the good stuff.  And yet some places around the metro might still pick up double digits by tomorrow morning.

Mostly sleet with this batch of precip in Morristown.

About 4" OTG in Morristown.  Not much accumulation over the past hour and a half.  Sporadic snow/sleet ongoing. Pretty well modeled so far.  No positive surprises yet.

Great looking radar for ALB and BGM!

Locally we still have some mod to heavy mixed precip. sliding through overnight. 

I think we have light sleet in Morristown. Probably would mix back in with snow if heavier precipitation came through.

Just now, JoshSnow said:

This storm is far from over as the low starts pivoting due east, the ratios will come back and CCB will kick in. We could get another 4-6 inches just from that. You guys give up too quick! watch the radar fill in the next hour or so! Any sleet you guys are getting will turn to snow

I haven't checked the guidance since yesterday, but from what was modeled previously this storm probably won't have a mature CCB since the mid-level lows aren't that strong and wrapped up.  The strongest lift near 700mb was forecast to swing through this evening and then lift north and northwestward.  The precipitation on the west side of the mid-level lows (already far NW) is likely to steadily decay is it swings eastward tomorrow.

I hope there are some positive surprises but I'm not optimistic about huge totals.  Regardless, this evening has already been fun!

There should be a few more periods of moderate to heavy snow/sleet move through, but on this side (east) of the mid-level lows the precipitation is moving through quickly.  You never know what could happen tomorrow morning, but we're not really in a great position with respect to the 700mb low progression.

That was a fun thump, but the good stuff went way north and west into north central PA and the southern tier of NY.  Hopefully there will still be several more inches of snow/sleet for much of the area but for many in the metro the meat of the accumulating period might be almost over.

Great looking setup for most of the region.  But a couple minor things I don't really like.

1. Models increasingly sending the biggest QPF into central PA - notably on most of the recent EC panels.

2. A warm layer on some guidance causing sleet to mix in as far north as northern NJ - notably on the 18z RGEM.

3. A quick thump followed by a dryslot and then mixed light precipition to end - notably on the NAM.

But if we can manage at least 8 or 10 inches overnight with light to moderate snow lingering after daybreak on Thursday morning I'll be really happy. Most guidance indicates a moist 700mb layer during the day on Thursday so at least sporadic flurries could stick around through midday.

The NAVGEM is wet and NW for the Monday event. It's probably wetter for most of the area Monday than for Wednesday. When the old Navy NOGAPS did this it used to be considered a red flag that the rest of the mid-range guidance would shift NW.

The ICON and Parallel GFS are pretty far NW with the precipitation associated with the wave on the 14th. GEFS and NAEFS show some decent spread to the NW of the mean, and particularly compared to the operational GFS depiction. Could be a sneaky event while everyone is looking ahead to something bigger.  Great summary Walt.

I don't hate the H5 look for Mon/Tue on the CMC either.  There's still a lot of work to do but we're 4 days out.  10 years ago it would have seemed more likely.  But modeling has definitely improved despite what some say.  So less chance of dramatic model changes in the short-mid range.

The follow up Mon-Tue trof is a longshot for snow but it doesn't look completely impossible.  There are several interacting shortwaves that muddle the picture and there's probably not quite enough room behind the departing system.  But the airmass is a little colder and it's at least something to watch.  I could see SNJ getting grazed with precipitation.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

It's the 84 hr NAM, that's why....

The impact in our area is towards the end of its run, but the stage is set by hrs 60 or 66.

The 12z NAM is a quick hitting wet snow bomb north of the City with a little snow in elevated NNJ.  Compared to most other guidance, the NAM has a relatively compact precip. field.  This is still evolving with every cycle so it's conceivable things could shift more widespread wintry with time.  But without much cold air it seems like a lot more can go wrong than right.

I think some people dislike seafood because they had a bad experience with fishy tasting and smelling fish as a child.  Mild, flaky fish like Cod, Sole, and maybe Trout as well as scallops are a much more pleasant early introduction to the world of seafood IMO.