Jump to content

eduggs

Members
  • Posts

    5,133
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by eduggs

  1. 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    We both feel that way because we're looking at a concentrated ball of strong vorticity rounding the base of that shortwave and then curling into E LI and the Cape. The stronger solution honestly makes meteorological sense...but we know convection-robbing of conveyors can be real, but we just don't when it is and when it's a model phantom.

    Your meteorological explanation makes sense.

    But I can't help but feel that we get imprinted early on when a threat is still in the medium or long range. We categorize our initial impression of the magnitude of possibility as a kind of unconscious expectation. And I think this initial impression biases our gut feeling from then on.

    It could explain why some people are dismissive of late-appearing threats that were not signaled in the LR or why they hold out hope for trivial events that were formerly modeled as monsters.

  2. 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    Early look 18z HRRR went wild on the south shore.  Good banding from Long Island to Ginxy to you on the simulated radar.

    EEDBE885-59F8-44BF-AD2A-EEFD376E3E83.thumb.png.dc128b4a39877d3c238e8eb7ef220cec.png

    That doesn't look so unreasonable. Ratio gradient and possibly a touch of mixing far SE will probably smooth that out a bit. Maybe knock a tenth of QPF off everywhere and it looks very plausible.

  3. 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Yeah it's trying, biut not quite enough this run to deliver the real goodies....still a better look at least than 12z. Most of my hope in this system is due to the strong vortmax....that as we get closer and closer, the model guidance will be focusing more of the forcing along the track of that vortmax and not to the east.

    Yeah, it ended up a touch better aloft and at the surface. Probably a touch worse through about 36 or 39hr and then a touch better thereafter. But the runs are nearly identical. Great run to run consistency for at least 6 hours :lol:

    Overanalyzing feels a little like desperation though...squinting to see an improvement. If there is a positive change it will be pretty obvious I think. This run wasn't that. Any miniscule improvement on the NAM does not offset the loss of 6 hours before go time.

  4. 12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

    Those max bands could still dump .75 to 1 inch per hour. 

    Definitely. Intensities could even be briefly heavier. But we're in the good stuff relatively briefly. And there's a chance our area ends up partly in-between the best banding. Someone in our region should hit 4" - heck maybe even 6" out on LI. But the rapid deepening of the SLP does not favor our area, so we're probably looking at accumulations < 4".

    • Like 1
  5. What happened to this subforum? When I lived in MA 20 years ago and subsequently posted in the predecessor forums, hobbyists actually knew how to read weather model output. People looked at soundings and upper level charts. There was a lot less wishcasting and snow-entitlement. 

    I guess somewhere along the line 3rd party snow maps and twitter meteorologists made us all stupid. It's kind of like how GPS ruined our sense of navigation.

    • Like 3
    • Confused 3
    • Weenie 1
  6. 23 minutes ago, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

    Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

    Eastern areas should get a little lingering daytime snowfall. But for many this will primarily be a nighttime event.

  7. 8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

    Miller B’s rarely work out for our area. We have to deal with subsidence issues more often than not. Hoping for a weak/moderate ElNino next winter. Give me some Miller A’s to track.

    This event looks like a Miller A. The SLP develops in the South and moves NE up the coast with very little hint of transfer. There's no midwestern clipper low or primary transferring to a coastal low. That's pretty classic Miller A.

    • Like 1
  8. 1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

    This convection to the east is really driving the NAM batty. Hate to say it but the RGEM’s been a lot more consistent. GFS seems to be doing the same with the convection. 

    Look at H5. The problem is not convection. Precipitation isn't generated by the L on the map. It's generated by vertical ascent, which is determined by the upper levels just like surface pressure is. So precipitation and SLP are caused by the same thing. The NAM run that was tucked had a much sharper trof. The weaker runs were flatter.

  9. 2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

    I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.

    It's interesting how people in different regions and based on different storms have such a different impression of individual models. People in the NYC, PHL, and MA forums have been praising the RGEM recently for its performance this winter.

    I think every model has its day. But it's never black and white. A model might nail one aspect of a storm in one region, but miss something else, somewhere else. No single model is best everywhere, every time.

    • Thanks 2
  10. 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite.

    When there isn't a discernable trend for several runs and there is also inter-model agreement, then we might be getting close to the final outcome.

    Antonio Brown would be congrats Buffalo one run and then what storm? the next.

    • Haha 1
  11. 3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

    NAM seems to be an outlier here, seems like every other model is showing decent surface low placement and H7 looks good to me, even on the 6z nam through 48hr, no?

    The 12z NAM is west of the 6z GFS and a few mb deeper. H7 does not look great on either of those runs if you want a significant snowstorm.

×
×
  • Create New...