eduggs

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not the best of news... but generally speaking, this is the 12z SPC HREF outlook through 7AM Monday.  Just continues to look like a disappointment east and northeast of Hartford. This may be wrong but I have to account for the constancy of the signal.  FWIW... the 00z/3 HREF missed the stripe of 1" down near RDG/ABE. So, it's not over but I think most of the decent action next 18 hours is w CT, westward and maybe North through east through sse of ORH.

Meanwhile we may be impressed by snowfall rates in PA from near IPT to AVP and the Catskills later today. 

 

Good to highlight that. If it plays out as currently indicated, that's a pretty significant snowfall for that axis of NEPA extending into the Southern Catskills of Sullivan and Ulster counties. Could be some pockets of 6"+ I think.

I also wonder how the precip. shield will look in the overnight as the mid-level lows and vortmax finally slide through and begin converging with the surface low over the Atlantic. Will precip. gradually lighten and dissipate or could there be some moderate bands that form and rotate through the metro early tomorrow morning?  Most models are showing a little bit of lingering QPF.  But does this represent widespread light precip. or the averaging and smoothing of banded precip?

Picked up a quick almost 1.5" in central Morris County.  Gorgeous parachutes mixed with a little sleet.  It was legitimately dumpting for an hour or so. The first batch went almost perfectly for western parts of the metro.

10 minutes ago, geeter1 said:

I'm about 5 miles north of Allentown, and we are approaching and unexpected 2" already from the first band. Temp 28° 

I love it!  That initial band looks healthy. I will try to enjoy whatever falls here in NJ, because it could be the main show today.

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Is that most of the storm? If so that’s a pretty big bust for HV and NE

It looks like the last couple of NAM runs. Not much of a bust IMO considering the modeling trends over the last day and a half. Maybe a bust based on the big runs of a few days ago. Or even the RGEM yesterday.

Let's see what happens first.

This initial batch could be mostly snow and sleet for a lot of areas. But after a possible lull late morning/early afternoon, I'm concerned that the southerly flow above 925mb associated with the ULL could change a lot of places to light rain outside the far interior. Dynamical cooling with heavier precipitation, or a rapidly deepening low (and associated 2nd mid-level lows) could offset this.  But recent trends have moved in the opposite direction.

I like the area ~10 miles north of I-80 and west of 287 for a few inches of snow. South of there, if precip. rates are high enough, I think we could cool the column and at least coat the ground. If it's mostly light precip., I think it will be difficult to accumulate much below 800ft.

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Surprised the board is so quiet with an incoming winter storm? I get it that will be a minor event.  But still, a few inches of snow are incoming . With a work commute on Monday morning. 

You're obviously in a much better spot than most for this one.  The looks really marginal with a relatively low ceiling. And most people are hunting for KUs. But it's also the kind of event that can bring an unexpected surprise with low expectations. That makes it fun to track.

Sleeting and about 36F near Morristown.

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The Para GFS is way different than the GFS. GFS has a huge ridge in the east at 384 while the Para has a big storm gearing up down south.

 

I mean come on

Yeah come on! Why can't models be consistent 16 days out! 

It's still a week+ away but the Jan 8-9 period continues to look interesting. The 0z EC and 12z CMC had the storm and intermodel ensembles are suggestive of a coastal storm threat in this period.

I think we're giving causal power to "the block" that doesn't actually exist. The global-scale atmospheric features are interconnected.  The upper and lower level features are integrally related.  A change in one feature doesn't really force the other... the changes happen in unison. And the jet streams spinning around the globe are like buckling strings. Movement anywhere along the string affects the whole chain.

Models don't "see" a block and then adjust. Models forecast a pattern that we describe as a block simultaneously with depicting synoptic features that are placed in concert with that block. If models forecast a stronger block they will also forecast synoptic features that appear to be responding to that block. But that is not the models responding to something tangible that has the power to force weather changes.  That is our ability to see into the future evolving in time. The apparent causal connection is just an illusion. Just like the notion that a surface high can force the movement of a surface low. Highs and lows are merely dance patterns linked in a complex choreography with all the features of the atmosphere.

23 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I think I'm around 15", sure it's more than down there but that's to be expected. I get about 50"/yr so I guess we're running about normal but it has been fairly warm and more wet than white.

We're talking about small numbers and small sample sizes, so it doesn't really matter.  But I think your area averages about the same snowfall as the elevated NW half of Morris and Passaic counties. The snow climatology of the Hudson Highlands and elevated lower HV is very similar to the highlands NW of I-287 in NJ.

11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I'm 20 minutes from Danbury, it hasn't been terribly wintry here. 

At least twice as much snow as here. I even remember snow in Putnam back in October.  Several inches in Fahnestock. I've measured about 6 or 7" cumulative on the year.  Morris, Hunterdon, Middlesex, and Somerset counties in NJ have not done well so far.  4 hours of heavy snow on Dec. 17 has been about the extent of it. Admittedly those were 4 glorious hours.

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

From amped into Buffalo to Suppression depression in 24 hrs

The decaying primary surface reflection near Buffalo is associated with the ULL.  It's still there.  The EC has clearly shifted south and east with the coastal low. But it's not a crazy shift for 3 days out.

Possibly my favorite thing about this NAM run is that it DOESN'T slam SNE. I hope and pray.  I personally don't favor this type of solution. But I do buy seeing more QPF into the southern tier and western NY associated with the primary, and a little bit less in EPA. Lots of model runs still to go.

The NAM is definitely colder and takes a more offshore track with the secondary low. End result is a less intense initial band, a much less pronounced dry slot, and a longer duration of light to possibly moderate precipitation. More snow for NJ and SENY, probably less snow for Poconos and Catskills.  The less-tucked solutions are still on the table obviously.

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Unfortunately given how every storm basically has trended since the start of last winter I’d buy the more nw outcomes

It's funny how the atmosphere has found all sorts of ways to snow in SNE and miss or rain on NJ (and sometimes the rest of the metro too) so far this year. Cities like Hartford, Providence, and Boston are way ahead of us. Even Danbury, New Haven, Taunton etc.

The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked.  The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT.  Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc.  I don't like this run but I buy it.  Back to back ski country base building events it looks like.

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Agreed 100%  ... marginal but need to see FGEN mid level convergence near I84.  Too early yet, i think. Gotta go.  Thanks for the inputs. 

Thank YOU for your input. We all read it eagerly. I remember reading your forecast discussions in the early 2000s while I was in college. I bet a lot more people read those than you realized.

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run

The NAM doesn't torch 850mb until after the bulk of the precip. passes through. Before and during it actually looks supportive of snow with a little elevation and distance from the coast. Check the soundings. You might be right to discount it but to me it looks plausible. To me the synoptics suggest quick thump and then dry slot. I'd prefer something longer duration but I don't see it right now.

57 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree totally with your point. But also it’s a world of difference nyc/LI vs Hudson valley and points NW. Hudson valley can get dink and dunk storms in more so so patterns where as NYC/LI needs the right pattern and usually feasts on bigger coastal storms

 

Just look at the next two events for example nyc will likely be 100 percent rain while parts of the sub forum will end up mainly frozen for both events 

 

Yeah most decent events in the City, LI, and coastal NJ are preceded by an entrenched cold airmass. But I don't think you have to go very far N or W of the coast to be able to occasionally cash in our marginal events.

The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low to near Lake Ontario - maybe even slightly north of the Lake.  It looks a little north of other guidance with this feature. Brings a quick 3-6 hour precip. thump and then a pronounced dryslot. Followup showery precip with the decaying ULL looks to stay mostly N and W of the area. I'm not a fan of this solution but it could flash to a snow column pretty far south with those initial rates. I think it generally has the right idea with a NW primary and a tucked surface low. Obviously I'm rooting for more of a GFS type solution.

23 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think you're all on it...elevation dependent amounts..on the boards for potential of several inches high terrain snowfall...slushy 32-33F.  Long ways to go.  Not getting excited about NYC.  I just know that everyone is primed about mid month potential... however, this one is the first decent snow attempt in a while along I84 and lets see if we can this one first.  WPC latest 17z ensemble probs for 3" or more of snow. I won't comment again on his til tomorrow morning. 

So often in the past I've seen people so focused on future possibilities (which may never materialize). that they are surprised by events in the near term that sneak up on them. Coastal snow events are not very common, even marginal ones. As a snow lover I'd be carefully monitoring and rooting for this if I were in elevated NNJ, through the Hudson Highlands, up into the southern Taconics. Even the I-80, I-287, lower Hudson Valley area has a chance of whitening the ground I think.

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's also further north and west with the low than the GFS, just like Euro and Ukie. I think NYC metro and Long island are going to see a cold rain unfortunately. I may see a few inches but it won't be all snow even by me 20 miles north of 84. 

Probably not, but I wouldn't rule out mostly snow for your area. Looks like a little northerly surface drain north and east of the HV. If we can stave off any lower-mid-level warming from the decaying primary, I think you could do fine up there.

The regional Canadian is warm, but still really close to a paste bomb for areas just NW of the corridor. As depicted, Walt's I-84 area is the dividing line on the CMC.

With a primary into Rochester NY I like the Catskills for a quick hard hitting thumping. Flakes could fall much further south, but once again the large-scale synoptics don't favor our region.