Chicago Storm

Surprised no one started a thread earlier. .

Putting together information that has been provided thus far… Path length is currently ~163 miles across PAH and LMK CWA’s in KY. This is from the KY/TN border in Graves Co KY, up to the Breckinridge/Grayson County KY borders. .

The area from just NE of Samburg up to along the KY/TN border has always been the question mark, so good so see at least some bits of confirmation on that now. .

Milwaukee has had 3 days of measurable snow, totaling 0.6” .

Gonna need a plane. .

The Euro was too low with the Friday night/Saturday morning wind event. The GFS was much closer in terms of both placement and forecasted wind gusts. .

Yes and no. A cold pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a LES pattern. (I’m not saying any of which are/are not happening) Personally, cold and dry is easily worse than warm and dry/warm and wet. .

‘Should’ is the key point here, by the way. You want to see how it could still go wrong, even in a more favorable teleconnection pattern? Check out the new Euro weeklies control run. .

As of now it’s looking likely that we’ll have a period of 45-60MPH wind gusts around here, Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. .

Re: SPC… I’m a well known hater of them in this sub-forum, but in this instance they did fairly well. It’s easy to say in hindsight they could have used a high risk, but in reality heading into the event you definitely couldn’t say that…as a moderate risk was adequate. The one argument you could possibly make is that for the evening outlook update, they could have expanded ENH and MOD probabilities across states like IL, IN and KY. But outside of that everything went well, and they used countless MCD’s to cover short term thoughts. .

shame they have never heard of cold and dry. .

There should already have been a day 3 slight risk across portions of NE/IA/MN. .

enlighten us on what this means. .

Definitely, across E NE/MN/IA. .

went back to check the lists, and that indeed was the lone omission and error. .

They are. However, the list of 60+ days is much longer, thus only the top of the count was included. Then 2021 was added in at the bottom of that list just to show we already chalked up 1 60+ day already this month.

Chicago daily records... 12/15 Record High: 64 - 1971 Record High Min: 44 - 1928 12/16 Record High: 60 - 1984

Stats time... Days With 60+ High Temp In December: 9 - 1982 5 - 1998 4 - 1946 4 - 1877 3 - 1984 3 - 1975 3 - 1962 3 - 1951 3 - 1879 1 - 2021 Days With 65+ High Temp In December: 3 - 1975 2 - 1998 2 - 1982 2 - 1970 1 - 2017 1 - 2012 1 - 2001 1 - 1984 1 - 1980 1 - 1951 1 - 1877 1 - 1875 Days With 70+ High Temp In December: 1 - 2012 1 - 1982 1 - 1970 Warmest December Days: 71 - 12/2/1982 71 - 12/3/1970 70 - 12/3/2012 69 - 12/28/1984 68 - 12/5/2001 68 - 12/1/1970 68 - 12/31/1875 67 - 12/3/1998 67 - 12/13/1975 67 - 12/20/1877 Warmest Met Winter Days: 75 - 2/27/1976 72 - 2/25/2000 71 - 12/2/1982 71 - 12/3/1970 70 - 2/20/2017 70 - 2/18/2017 70 - 12/3/2012 70 - 2/11/1999 69 - 2/19/2017 69 - 12/28/1984 69 - 2/15/1954 68 - 2/22/2017 68 - 12/5/2001 68 - 12/1/1970 68 - 2/22/1922 68 - 12/31/1875

keeping my inbox full ftw. .

A little more on this now… As I mentioned a few days ago, we will be transitioning to a new pattern late this week into next weekend. This pattern will continue a -PNA, and will introduce a neutral to - EPO/AO/NAO. At face value, this ‘should’ bring more cold and snow opportunities across more of the sub-forum. Obviously any particular threat within this new pattern will rely on how much of a dip that the EPO/AO/NAO is taking at any particular time. .

Making it to Friday (17th) is a lock, but beyond that it’ll likely become fairly dicey. .

As of this time I haven’t seen anything below EF-2, but obviously it’s still early. .

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Either way there will be a wind/tornado threat, whether activity is cellular or QLCS.

CC signature with it. .