Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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Trough and wave ejection is slowing. Something we almost always see in these situations. .
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Going into BUFKIT, using max T method has ratios ~10:1 to start and finishing ~20:1, with ~12:1 during the heart of the event. 14.2" total.
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I wouldn't bet on higher with the lower level temps. Well inland, sure.
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Temps are a bit ‘warmer’, which is not surprising with a longer fetch wind off the lake. .
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False alarm. NAM is now in more of the consensus. Edit: To add, there were some things going on aloft that suggested it might end up north, but some changes as time went on made that not happen.
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0z NAM gonna have Alek up in his Eurythmics feels. .
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.
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18z GEM caving as well.
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You want consistency? The GFS has had Chicago in the middle of the snowfall axis for consecutive 7 runs now. .
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PV lobe in Canada is the savior. .
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You want an amped solution? The 18z NAM is yours. .
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To add to this... If you're just looking at the colorful snow map, you'll be confused. Check out 500mb.
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12z Euro is very close to being something special. .
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Quality signal showing up on the GEFS mean. .
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The 12z Ukie is more similar to the GFS. .
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Not so much. A significant portion of the storm system evolution still occurs towards the end of the run. Also add in that some important pieces are not within the NAM domain as of yet. This is why you’ll often see it jump around more significantly compared to other guidance. .
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i’ve been told i’m just an asshole that hates on people around here. .
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We’re not in short range NAM territory yet. Then add in the NAM has been horrific for months now. .
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The amount of moving parts doesn’t make the NAM any more useful than other guidance. .
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it’s new years weekend, good enough. .
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The surface reflection, and whole storm for that matter, is a product of the Cali cut off wave that ejects out and interacts with the lead wave diving through the West. Really isn’t all that wrapped up or strong of a system, which is not surprising given what’s shown aloft. .
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There’s even more to it than that. Obviously the lobe in Canada acting as a block and associated confluence, as you mentioned. …But also the fact there are three different waves coming into the west. There’s the initial wave, which is sort of cut off near the Cali Coast, and then two additional waves that dive south out of Canada, which will interact with said Cali wave. So in the end, there’s probably at least 4 different moving parts to watch. .
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that’s not how it works. .
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Less phased and more strung out.
