Chicago Storm

0-3km cape magic.


.

Final snowfall total of 1.7” at ORD.


.

1.3" to be exact.

KORD 250351Z 11003KT 3/4SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -SN BR BKN008 OVC018 M04/M07 A3049 RMK AO2 SLP335 SNINCR 1/1 P0004 T10441067

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Just virga out this way. 

ORD down to 0.5 mile now in moderate snow.

Yea, it's coming down here.

Will measure shortly for the hourly, but likely will have near 1" just eyeballing it right now

Weak disturbance moving through tonight, with an f-gen band of snow shifting NE through the area this evening.

Already dusted here at ORD with -SN.

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

DVN did a little longer range discussion today

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

The MJO forecast is to have it move from phase 3 through phase 7
over the next three weeks. These phases have the potential for
warmer and wetter than normal across the Midwest, especially
during phases 5 and 6. However, the lingering weak La Nina will
likely cause some deconstructive interference.

Sorry to break it to them, but they're like 2 weeks behind on that. Already happened.

it's 80 in D.C. today, they've had 18 60+days this winter, and they have 0.4" of snow on the season.

perfection.

ORD received 1.20" of rainfall yesterday, which broke the record precipitation total for the date of 0.95", which was set in 1919.

After leaving ORD last night, I took a drive NW towards the old stomping grounds of ex-home in NW Cook Co.

The cut off between ice/no ice, as @kevlon62mentioned yesterday, was indeed right along I-290...and it was very sharp. It was the type of gradient where if you were on a given road, trees on one side were ice covered and the other side were not.

Carrying on into the vicinity of Schaumburg/Streamwood/Hanover Park in NW Cook Co, there were widespread power outages and widespread tree damage as well. It reminded me of how things look in a post widespread damaging wind producing severe t'storm event in the warm season. I measured just shy of 0.20" of ice still on the trees at that time, and that was after several hours of melting at that point. So at the peak, there was likely ice accumulation of 1/4" around that area.

ASOS storm total ice accumulation in the area…

DPA - 0.39”
RFD - 0.37”
UGN - 0.33” *Sensor outage, not a complete total.
PWK - 0.17”

Final rainfall totals in the area…

ORD - 1.20" *Record for the date (0.95" - 1919).
MDW - Sensor outage.
RFD - 0.95"

687k without power in MI, and much of that in S MI.

N IL peaked at 115k.


.

Closing in on 100k without power across N IL.

19 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I wasn’t tuned in to the drama back then…could have been worse than I imagined. Others probably know better. 
 

Not trying to dig up gremlins from the past - just remembering the good times. 

some are not as far away as you think.

Power outages rapidly increasing across N IL.

You don't even need to look at the radar, you can just look at the outage map to see where there has/hasn't been ice.

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Best in the game^

he stays on point.

Based on pictures I've seen, even with borderline temps and heavy rates, ice accrual has been fairly efficient across portions of Northern Illinois.

some of you need to take a page out of cromartie's book.

every time he talks up a mild pattern and morch, he gets a solid snowfall.

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks active at min, nice not to be worrying about drought heading into spring

Active is something we've had going for us more often than not this winter at least.

With that continuing, time for repeated hydro issues.

19 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

He just needs to give it up. More winter isn't happening this year for the ORD->DTW corridor. But he doesn't want spring either.

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Spring isn't happening . Jokes aside, I'd easily bet money that ORD-DTW gets more winter.

I mean yea, there most definitely will be more opportunity. Whether any of it works out or is interesting enough remains the question.

ASOS ice accumulation in the area as of 2PM…

RFD - 0.22”
UGN - 0.22”
DPA - 0.21”
PWK - 0.09”

15 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Dry fropa, sad times

the lead wave is the main wave here.

looking good later, hopefully we can get some t'storms in the area.

14 hours ago, Baum said:

Radar still looks a bit sketchy, though they tend to explode in set ups like this. I see LOT took the bait and brought the freezing rain line south a touch. Big worry with this is robbing of moisture transport from gulf convection.

You’re looking at the radar too early. Give it a few more hours.


.

We need to bring BowMe, Geos, and daddylonglegs back to help the mojo in here. The good old days of 2013-14.
And…
’copter

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's see if we get a big March snowstorm. All guidance looking cold mid March. 

 

I'd pump the brakes on that for now.

Originally, very extended/long range guidance favored a flip to cold/wintry for the final 1/3rd of Feb, then it got pushed back to early March, and now it's more towards the transition into mid-March.

The assault on the SPV has made things quite volatile, with the continued evolution of the MJO a big factor as well (Which continues to support a not so cold/wintry outcome into mid-March). The MJO has most definitely been overpowering any real effect of the SPV assault (Which has been ongoing for a month now) across the CONUS, that's for sure.

Yes, long range guidance does show things (Such as teleconnections) shifting in the very long/extended range. Of note is a significant Scandinavian/European ridge retrograding towards Greenland, and eventually into Canada and the Northeastern CONUS... Which would lead you to believe that would push any remaining cold down into portions of the CONUS, though the Western and North-Central US may be favored if the -PNA regime continues. So that doesn't necessarily mean around here, and also given the struggles of guidance at that range, I'd wait up to another week before putting stock into it.

That all reminds me, I never did get out a post regarding the final 1/3rd of February. In the end, it doesn't matter much, as it's a continuation of what we saw for the middle 1/3rd of February across the CONUS.

19 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Do people really think that DJF temps right on the immediate lakeshore aren’t warmer than ORD, especially in the 1800s when there was no UHI at the present-day location of ORD? Or, that 4 of the 6 warmest winters in history all occurred in a 7-year span?? That points to the observation site being a factor. 
 

You know, how Alek celebrates going past Thanksgiving without a freeze, seemingly year after year?
 

Of course it’s different in MAM, due to the lake breeze.

It probably was a bit warmer downtown/near the lake, but there's a big difference between current day UHI and 1870-1900 UHI.

And, as Harry and Josh pointed out, many of those winters were mild region-wide.