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Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm

  1. Main issue is no surface flow. Probably would have produced otherwise.
  2. Can probably toss this now for the most part. Looks like any training with excessive totals will now be more isolated/localized...instead of more widespread as it looked earlier.
  3. The whole area has the same kind of threat...No matter if you're in ORD, IKK or GBG.
  4. While there is a still a SLGT worthy severe risk for the area (even if SPC did trim it, they have been meh), the flood threat looks to steal the show overall. Upwards of 1.00-2.50" of rain fell across a corridor within N Illinois last night/this morning. It looks like a good portion of that corridor will overlap with the heaviest for this afternoon/tonight, with upwards of another 2-5" of rain possible. Could be seeing final totals in that overlap region in excess of 6"...if things line up correctly.
  5. Quality storms this morning around here. 1.28” rain at ORD this morning and 2.04” here. .
  6. It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out. Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out.
  7. Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity. SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear.
  8. But also had the highest test count as well, around 30k.
  9. These are significant... 0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN. 0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO 15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING ARCARDIA CT.
  10. Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid.
  11. FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through.
  12. Just like that high of 70 on April 25th was gonna be the last 70+ day of April...only to hit 76 three days later, on the 28th. .
  13. Protests over the stay at home order starting up downtown today.
  14. Our in-house magic 8-ball has spoken.
  15. While we are in imagination mode...
  16. Today is going just about as expected, with widespread clouds and convection festering across the main area of focus. Best chance of anything will probably be from that current E IA line, if it matures a bit to the east.
  17. Tomorrow still looks like a low-end risk day. Cloud cover/shower debris issues will be too widespread and significant. Only the HRRR's are interesting.
  18. Tue looks like a marginal-slight worthy risk for areas near/south of I-80 in IA/IL/IN. Beyond that, I had been mentioning elsewhere for a while now that severe chances would likely increase for the Plains/Midwest for first weekend of May into the first week of May...and we have now been consistently seeing signs on longer range guidance that will likely be the case.
  19. Things have sort of plateaued for a while now, so I find that hard to believe.
  20. Haven't really been following it much recently, but the CFS is showing a fairly cool May for most areas. It has constant Eastern or Lakes troughing.
  21. Nothing should change until there is better testing in place.... Which is something that hasn’t happened yet, and doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon. .
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