Chicago Storm
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A period of high winds looks likely from later this afternoon into Thursday morning. Looks like 50-60kts at 925mb edges in along the Lake Michigan shore counties, so will likely end up with 50-60mph gusts for those areas, with 35-50mph more common inland.
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The main storm system will really wrap up across the Lakes tomorrow... While early day high temps will be in the 50's tomorrow, temps will likely drop into the 40's the rest of the day, with a lengthy period of rain and wind from late morning into early tomorrow night. Some guidance has upwards of a few inches of rain across N IL/S WI.
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Today is going just about as expected, with widespread clouds and convection festering across the main area of focus. Best chance of anything will probably be from that current E IA line, if it matures a bit to the east.
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Tomorrow still looks like a low-end risk day. Cloud cover/shower debris issues will be too widespread and significant. Only the HRRR's are interesting.
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Tue looks like a marginal-slight worthy risk for areas near/south of I-80 in IA/IL/IN. Beyond that, I had been mentioning elsewhere for a while now that severe chances would likely increase for the Plains/Midwest for first weekend of May into the first week of May...and we have now been consistently seeing signs on longer range guidance that will likely be the case.
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Saturday looks like the last day with highs in the 40's for a while.
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Things have sort of plateaued for a while now, so I find that hard to believe.
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Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts this afternoon and evening across WI/N IL/E IA, with the convection moving through along/ahead of the cold front. Even a few isolated higher gusts, such as 69mph at MKE and 61mph at DPA. .
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Spring/Summer 2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
Chicago Storm replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Haven't really been following it much recently, but the CFS is showing a fairly cool May for most areas. It has constant Eastern or Lakes troughing. -
Nothing should change until there is better testing in place.... Which is something that hasn’t happened yet, and doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon. .
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So much for that...past 24hrs has had the biggest single day case increase thus far. 27,575 cases and 1,134 deaths total now. (+1,842 & +62)
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The range has generally been between +1,100 to +1,550 during that 10 day stretch, constantly bouncing around. So definitely not a downward trend, just more-so a leveled off steady increase.
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Still the same leveled steady increases each day, with both cases and deaths. Sun: 20,852 cases and 720 deaths total. (+1,293 & +81) Mon: 22,025 cases and 794 deaths total. (+1,173 & +74) Tue: 23,247 cases and 868 deaths total. (+1,222 & +74) Wed: 24,593 cases and 948 deaths total. (+1,346 & +80) Thur: 25,733 cases and 1,072 deaths total. (+1,140 & +125)
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Solid squall moving through now with +SN, dusting colder surfaces.
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The environment today is similar to that of the environment last Thursday, for squalls.
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Seems to be a steady rise each day, but nothing exponential per say... Tue: 13,549 cases and and 380 deaths total. (+1,287 & +73) Wed: 15,078 cases and 462 deaths total. (+1,529 & +82) Thur: 16,422 cases and 528 deaths total. (+1,344 & +66) Fri: 17,887 cases and 596 deaths total. (+1,465 & +68) Sat: 19,180 cases and 677 deaths total. (+1,293 & +81)
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Peak wind gusts of 47mph at ORD and 51mph at MDW today.
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Finally ended up with one good squall later this afternoon. It featured a brief but solid period of SN, and wind gusts up to 40-50mph.
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Yea, the most active corridor has run from DVN to Watseka, with the metro having missed out on the goods so far. Squall currently moving from Lee to LaSalle Co's has had a lot of lightning...even a hail marker with it.
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Several 1-2" snow reports from some of the heavier squalls in SD/MN/WI.
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Soundings for today across the area are rockin'... Upwards of 400 cape, low level lapse rates up around 10C, freezing level around 900mb, deep mixing to ~600mb, -6C at 850mb... Gonna be convective precip o' plenty, with +SN/graupel...and probably some +TSSN. Add in the 35-50mph wind gusts, and likely higher in the convective precip. There's even some inverted V soundings showing up.
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STL hit 90 today, which was also a record. Not the earliest 90+ on record though, as 90+ previously occurred on 4/1 in a previous year.
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Steep low level lapse rates, up to 200 cape, low freezing levels...has all the makings of convective showers, with +SN and/or graupel.
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Hit 80 at ORD and MDW today.
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Make that more 77-83 area wide now. .
