Yea, tomorrow definitely has potential across E IA and N IL.
SPC holding at marginal is comical, but par for the course with them.
Unfortunately, I’ll still be out of town for this one.
On vacation in St. Pete Beach from Sun-Sun (17-24th)... Had a tornado warning early yesterday morning, as a line of storms moved through with 60mph+ winds. Ended up with a nice sunset, as lingering cirrus finally exited during the evening. .
It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out.
Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out.
Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity.
SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear.
These are significant...
0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN.
0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO 15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING ARCARDIA CT.
Today is going just about as expected, with widespread clouds and convection festering across the main area of focus.
Best chance of anything will probably be from that current E IA line, if it matures a bit to the east.
Tomorrow still looks like a low-end risk day. Cloud cover/shower debris issues will be too widespread and significant.
Only the HRRR's are interesting.
Tue looks like a marginal-slight worthy risk for areas near/south of I-80 in IA/IL/IN.
Beyond that, I had been mentioning elsewhere for a while now that severe chances would likely increase for the Plains/Midwest for first weekend of May into the first week of May...and we have now been consistently seeing signs on longer range guidance that will likely be the case.
Nothing should change until there is better testing in place.... Which is something that hasn’t happened yet, and doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon. .