Chicago Storm

It has done that another time recently...Definitely having issues. On the flip side, RPJ has been running too warm temp/DP wise a lot recently. .

94 at ex home, 92 at MDW, and 91 at ORD and RFD today. 29 - Ex Home 27 - RFD 24 - MDW 21 - ORD .

91 at ex home, and 90 at ORD and MDW today.28 - Ex Home26 - RFD23 - MDW20 - ORD

Both the IA and SD/MN MCS’s were not sustained, so that probably does it for the threat today for most of this sub-forum for today. .

Kind of a blind wait and see situation once again today, similar to Tues/Wed... CAMS are of no help, as most wanted to turn the ND/SD MCS into a ranging derecho today, and didn’t really have the MCS further south across NE/IA. The HRRR did have the southern complex, but has been in insta-kill mode with it, and took it NE into MN. So all guidance is pretty much a toss. As for what’s going on currently, the IA MCS is obviously of focus, and it will be interesting to see if it survives the next 3 hours or so. The environment that it’s in isn’t terrible, but it’s also not the best either (Low shear/modest instability/good moisture/good lapse rates). If it survives, the expected environment for this afternoon across E IA/S WI/N-C IL won’t be really all that better than what it’s currently in this morning. Then you have the ND/SD MCS, which probably won’t turn into a raging derecho as CAMS advertised. It continues to push towards MN, where the environment overall is even worse than what the IA MCS is in currently. Add in the potential issues that will arise if the IA MCS sustains... .

Will either fade or be a hit later. Needs to survive the next 3 hours. .

If anything, it would be a miss well W or NW. .

Nothing noteworthy, but quality summer action here again at ORD over the past few hours.

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94 at ORD, MDW and ex home, and 90 at RFD today.27 - Ex Home26 - RFD22 - MDW19 - ORD

They better have a picture of that tornado, because they essentially tor warned a shower with no radar based rotation.

Main line of storms just rolled through with wind gusts of 36MPH. So that makes it four distinct periods of non-severe winds the past few hours here at ORD, with peaks of 47MPH, 47MPH, 45MPH and 36MPH with each period.

And now 45MPH wind gusts with more storms.

Storms keep re-developing off of the OFB, and just had 47MPH wind gusts once again with one of said storms.

47MPH wind gusts here at ORD with a storm developing overhead on the OFB.

97 at ex home, 96 at MDW, and 95 at ORD and RFD today.26 - Ex Home25 - RFD21 - MDW18 - ORD

Not a chance.

A few tor warned supercells in S WI now, though north of the southward moving OFB.

61MPH gusts at Waterloo on the southern edge of the line. Apex further north is probably producing 70MPH+. RIJ showing up well on KDVN.

I’ve seen enough to say an ENH is needed on the 20z update in a corridor across NE IA into N IL. .

To add to the above, SPC will need to add a slight risk to portions of IA/S WI/N IL with the the 20z SWODY1. If not for potential issues with the lead re-organizing complex in E WI and capping concerns, one could push for an ENH risk for that aforementioned corridor.

Fairly complex scenario/evolution of things today... The first two MCS that have been moving across MN/WI early this morning into early this afternoon have sort of merged/organized into one complex, now affecting E WI...and likely eventually pushing into MI as well. Further west, I had mentioned earlier this morning that any local potential would depend on festering activity on the southern edge of the morning MCS's. This activity survived the morning and also has organized into an MCS along the MN/IA border. This MCS has a fairly good environment ahead of it, characterized by a solid instability/moisture/theta-e reservoir, quality shear with multiple waves/MCV's riding the north edge of the ridge, and a nice thermal ridge nosing in. Should see this MCS ride E or ESE, near/along the OFB in place from earlier activity across N IA/S WI.

Unless the tail end festers, miss north. .

Also hit 91 at ex home and 90 at MDW yesterday. 25 - Ex Home 24 - RFD 20 - MDW 17 - ORD .

91 at RFD today. 24 - Ex Home24 - RFD19 - MDW16 - ORD