Chicago Storm

Low temp of 70 yesterday at ORD broke the record high min temp for the date of 68, which was set in 1879.

Nice bag. I ended up not going out in the end, which was a reasonable decision. The isolated mini supercells were too few in quantity in the end, and only two produced. The QLCS has actually been the bigger story surprisingly, with numerous MV’s embedded in the line. However, there has been an overall lack of reports of any mode of severe associated with it.

Looks like a corridor of slight risk worthy activity will verify across C IL into E IN. Today performed about as good as it could given the situation. If there had been more clearing, which only would have been possible if that initial axis of rain/t’storms didn’t exist, it definitely would have been a more significant event. That SPC mega size 5% tor area from previous outlooks was still horrendous. .

Given how things have evolved over the past several hours, I don’t see it worth me going anymore. Will obviously continue to monitor things, especially more locally for later. .

Have ditched this idea. .

I'm still pondering heading down to W IL...We'll see.

Pretty much the same as it has... The quality of threat will be dependent on how much clearing is seen through the day. Still looks like best risk is across IL (maybe into NE MO/SE IA and W IN as well). .

I’m talking about the main threat, like 5% tor worthy threat (Not that it’s even worthy of that right now). That will be limited to IL. .

Tomorrow will be highly dependent on debris from tonights activity that moves across the region tomorrow. It won’t take much clearing to make for a favorable environment ahead of the low/front in IL, so it’ll have to be watched. IL is really the main focus, as that huge slight risk from the SPC is way overdone. .

Through the first 1/4 of the month, ORD has a temp departure of +10.8. With the very warm temps expected to continue into mid month, the next 1/4 of the month and combined first 1/2 departures should end up just as high. .

Like I said before, the typhoon recurve is really not doing much for us in this case. The pattern change (with the introduction of a -PNA) has been underway in a large scale for several days now. And as I mentioned before, there really isn’t going to be any sort of cool down. Temps will continue to be above to well above average around here for the foreseeable future (through mid-month). .

Out here in the suburbs there are still some scattered about, but a majority are gone. .

Departures are actually more meaningful and significant now than before. If you’re still putting up a +3.9° average departure for a given month, especially with the rise in averages over the years, it is more noteworthy. .

No idea why, but for some reason I entered 2010 for 1881. Has been fixed above. .

Warmest Septembers On Record: 1. 71.2° - 1931 2. 70.6° - 1908 3. 70.5° - 1960 4. 70.4° - 1971 5. 70.3° - 2021 5. 70.3° - 1925 7. 70.2° - 1978 7. 70.2° - 1881 9. 70.1° - 1906 10. 70.0° - 1939 10. 70.0° - 1921

First half of the month looks like a torch overall around here... Should build a fairly formidable positive departure through the 15th. Even with the ULL meandering around the SE next week, should still see average to above average temps around here. Beyond that, ENS have been coming more onboard the past several days regarding another push of warmer temperatures somewhere in the 8-14th timeframe. -PNA is slowly starting to develop, becoming more - with time. ENS support is high for a continuation through mid month, which supports the overall mild idea expected to continue. .

Ended up sneaking in another 90 at RFD on Monday (27th). Unless something historic/record breaking happens in October, these will be the final numbers.33 - Ex Home32 - RFD30 - MDW22 - ORD

Have noticed a few here the past week or so as well, though the majority are still warm season green. It hasn’t gotten too cool as of yet, so this might be more drought related than anything. (Especially since the usual early turning Ash trees are still green). .

That’s not always how it works... And it won’t be in this case re: cooler weather. .

only the less informed think that. .

that straight up trade proposal is looking lopsided now. .

The upcoming pattern is nothing of note .

Going to fall short in the metro/NE IL. HRRR was really never onboard, with a max of 86-88 for most of the area. Also, I wasn't really fond of the thermal ridge cooling and being shunted southward steadily through the day.

The sensor at ORD is in good working order, surprisingly. Gladstone site shows no significant error either. .

they're not an intelligent bunch there.