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Posts posted by psv88

  1. 44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Sunshine will return tomorrow and it will turn warmer. Near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures will then continue through the weekend.

    The ongoing intense heatwave will begin to wind down tomorrow in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

    Billings: 102° (old record: 97°, 1998)
    Boise: 104° (old record: 97°, 1955) ***New September record***
    Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1978)
    Cheyenne: 97° (old record: 90°, 1959) ***New September record***
    Death Valley, CA: 122° (tied record set in 2021)
    Denver: 99° (old record: 95°, 1933 and 2013)
    Fresno: 111° (old record: 108°, 1904)
    Glasgow, MT: 106° (old record: 96°, 2003) ***New September record***
    Great Falls: 100° (old record: 95°, 1998)
    Havre, MT: 104° (old record: 99°, 1998) ***New September record***
    Helena: 102° (old record: 96°, 1998) ***New September record***
    Pocatello: 100° (old record: 97°, 1979)
    Reno: 104° (old record: 98°, 2021)
    Sacramento: 107° (old record: 105°, 2020)
    Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 99°, 1979) ***Tied all-time record***

    In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

    On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

    The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

    The SOI was +15.57 today.

    The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.436 today.

    On September 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.305 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.586 (RMM).

    Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal).


    Gotta love places in Cali and UT setting all time records in September, what a world we live in

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  2. 1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

    That band's parked just NE of me, like walking distance far away. Exact same area getting nailed as 2 weeks ago.

    Yep, that same Greenlawn area getting crushed. Crazy that areas to our south have less than 1/4'

  3. 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    We’re lucking out again up here. Amazing how this little drought zone just persists. South shore summer drought is a frequent occurrence but this is insane. 

    Yep. LIE north getting the goods again. Terrain enhancement maybe? 

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