weatherextreme

Tim Howard calling this rotation "violent" https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/tim.howard.html Chris also has something https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/chris.oneal.html He confirmed a TOG

Tim Howard with strong rotation on stream. he mentioned that it "might turn into a tornado" https://www.severestudios.com/

TOG or a funnel on John Humphress stream https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Direct https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

Looks like Chris Oneal has something on stream https://www.severestudios.com/ direct https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/chris.oneal.html

Oliver Grefe is close to that storm https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Direct link https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/oliver.grefe.html

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma... Southwestern Grady County in central Oklahoma... Southeastern Caddo County in southwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Stephens County in southern Oklahoma... Northwestern Cotton County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 415 PM CDT. * At 328 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Geronimo, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Lawton, Marlow, Elgin, Geronimo, Rush Springs, Fletcher, Cyril, Sterling, Verden, Cement, Norge, Faxon, Agawam, eastern Fort Sill, Lake Ellsworth, Lake Chickasha, Central High, Ninnekah, Hulen and Acme.

Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate. Has anyone ever seen something like this?

NWS Norman‏Verified account @NWSNorman 3m3 minutes ago More 2:00 PM - we have expanded the slight risk and tornado probabilities to include parts of SW OK and western N TX. Not everyone will see a storm, but those that do should be ready for large hail and potentially a tornado. Watch for updates.

Looks like the SPC is looking into this scenario. From the SPC Some hints that a few storms could initiate over the Oklahoma vicinity are indicated -- apparently tied to a very weak mid-level disturbance moving through the otherwise anticyclonic flow -- but this appears very low probability at this time. Should a storm or two initiate however, the background CAPE/shear environment would be quite supportive for supercell storms -- and all severe hazards. At this time, will expand the 5% risk across Oklahoma, for what still appears to be a highly conditional scenario at best.

The main problem with that perception is that it wasn't just the SPC/NWS guys that thought this was going to be a high-end event it was plenty of others across multiple platforms. Also, speaking on these types of issues, do you think it would be best for the SPC/NWS to go with a lower category when most everything is pointing to a higher-end event? I've heard some people mention that it's actually best to stay at a lower (mod, enhanced category) until something major happens (guessing violent (major tornadoes)).

I've been following this specific sub-form for awhile, and one thing I noticed is that the majority of the posters mentioning "bust" before the event was over barley, if any ever post on this sub-form. (From what I could tell ) That alone told me it was more than likely a way to troll instead of actually adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

Weather.com has some info regarding the history of the high-risk from the SPC A Solid Track Record We examined each of the 60 high risk outlooks from 2000 through May 2017 to determine how many of those forecasts rang true to the dire nature of the outlooks. There are various shades of gray in assessing the accuracy of these forecasts, somewhat analogous to grading the drafts of professional sports teams years after the fact. Three-quarters (45) of the high-risk forecasts were solid. These not only included obvious cases, like the late-April 2011 Superoutbreak, but also some tougher, more out-of-season forecasts, such as the November 2013 Midwest outbreak and the February 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak. Only seven of these high-risk forecasts could be clearly categorized as busts, primarily from a lack of tornadoes in the high-risk zone. As SPC forecasters explained in a discussion regarding the May 18, 2017 high risk, a number of factors, such as too many competing severe thunderstorms interfering with each other, can lead to a busted high risk. The most recent example of this was on April 27, 2014, when a small part of Arkansas was highlighted in the afternoon, but relatively few tornadoes occurred in that zone. Another eight cases weren't clearly either a hit or bust. One example was April 5, 2017 in the Southeast. The high risk issued around midday certainly seemed to capture a long-track supercell spawning tornadoes in the southern half of Georgia. However, one could argue the density of reports of severe weather was higher in areas surrounding the high risk. That case points out that while a high-risk area is typically denoted as "particularly dangerous" in the lexicon of meteorologists, you should still take a moderate, enhanced or even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms seriously. Rest is here https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/high-risk-spc-outlooks-verified

Reminds me of my local chick fil a drive-thru

Definitely not over NWS Norman ✔@NWSNorman · 58m Replying to @NWSNorman Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow. NWS Norman‏Verified account @NWSNorman 59m59 minutes ago More This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant.

I remember about a few years ago there was a hyped system that didn't pan out during the day/early evening, but it did during the night. There was also multiple people calling it a bust before the event was fully over. (Those guys pretty much looked like fools afterwards).

More. Mike Morgan‏Verified account @MikeMorganKFOR 31m31 minutes ago More 5PM Sun. UPDATE: 1. Never seen OKC METRO under CONTINUOUS tornado threat this long: literally 1PM-1AM. 2. Multiple tornado strikes Metro quite possible. 3. Large/violent tornadoes are possible. 4. SVR flooding possible. To avoid hyperbole, first Okla. WX report below #okwx @kfor

These guys got a large TOG

The resent update from the SPC upgraded Tornado probabilities for tomorrow 5/17. Went from 5% to MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced SUMMARY... Severe storms with very large hail, tornadoes (a few of which could be strong) and damaging wind are expected, mainly across parts of the Plains from Nebraska south into west Texas. A few severe storms with large hail and gusty winds are also possible across southern South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio through the Middle Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.

Reed has commented on this More Reed Timmer‏Verified account @ReedTimmerAccu May 12 SEVERE WEATHER: the end of next week could be the start of one of the more active periods this generation of storm chasers will remember! Reminds me of early May 2003 and late season 2004 with day after day of tornado potential, ski-jump upper-level setups! Starting next Friday

Enhanced with 10 % Tornado probs added around Lufkin up to around Shreveport.

More NWS Amarillo‏Verified account @NWSAmarillo 2h2 hours ago Today is shaping up to be one of the more active severe wx days in recent years for #phwx. The setup favors supercells capable of all hazards, including strong tornadoes. The whole area could see severe wx, but the central and eastern TX Panhandle is of most concern. #txwx #okwx

Reed Timmer‏Verified account @ReedTimmerAccu 1m1 minute ago More Large dangerous, likely rain-wrapped tornado 8 miles southeast of Tahoka TX appears to be even retrograding a bit WNW with a cell merger in progress @breakingweather

Tornado Warning TXC435-021830- /O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0019.190502T1804Z-190502T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service San Angelo TX 104 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Sutton County in west central Texas... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 104 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles southwest of Sonora, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Sutton County, including the following locations... The Intersection Of Us-277 And Ranch Road 189 and Us-277 Near The Sutton-Edwards County Line. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3042 10094 3057 10058 3029 10045 3029 10086 TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 255DEG 5KT 3042 10079 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.50IN

Jeff on the Vicksburg Tornado https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1ypKdvDnXdQJW