BGM Blizzard

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

We just got named. Probally a extreme outcome. But atleast we are back in the game.

Just for you Tim

13 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Can you post the 18z mean for comparison 

18z EPS...

The shift is a remarkable one. 0z EPS pretty much increases the QPF mean 50-100% across the board for everyone. 

0z EPS...

Definitely a big nw shift in EPS. Run is almost to the end of the storm duration. 

Just now, tim123 said:

Can you post mean and members?

Yes sir

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Anyone know when ensembles come out for euro.

Should start coming out in about 30 mins.

0z Euro...

Wow big nw shift on Euro from 18z and esp 12z. The Coastal ccb gets back to i-81 for several hours on Tuesday with the 700mb low going into New England verbatim. 

0z NAM coming in a bit north. Brings some good precip into the western southern tier. Granted it's in its long range but we need some magic here. 

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Didn't someone say storm isn't fully onshore till tonight to be fully sampled ?

Yeah going by the 500mb chart on the 0z NAM, the base of the trough came onshore into SoCal earlier this evening...

18z Euro took a small NW jog but still leaves the forum high and dry outside of E NY.

Last available surface frame at H90/12z Tue...

Storm precip thru 12z Tues...

18z Icon is a small improvement over its 12z run for atleast the S Tier and E NY

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The players are in the same position as 18z (actually better). It’s way too early to be looking at precip signatures. The Binghamton storm was 50 miles away from killing Syracuse and you guys are throwing in the towel 4 days out!?!?

Seriously. All these weenie suicides over a couple lackluster model runs at the D4-5 mark when this storm not even onshore yet is laughable. Didn't know so many people have the memory of a hamster when it comes to the models.

7 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Any thoughts on this next storm Monday & Tuesday?  Feel like the models went off the rails today and call it a hunch, but I see this coming right back to where it started.  Don’t big storms typically make their NW correction 48 hrs out?

Folks south of NY state are locking in amounts and the NAM isn’t even in its “wheelhouse”

No one should be jumping ship after a model run or two for sure. Set aside the fact about the NW trend this winter, this storm won't even be fully sampled until atleast the 0z runs tomorrow night. With as many moving parts that are in play, this could trend in any direction right up until it's hours from unfolding. 

This storm not coming onshore til Friday afternoon. Long way to go folks.

12z GEFS 10:1 mean for storm duration ...

Individual members total 10:1 snow

12z ICON 10:1 total snow 

43 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Eps anyone?

0z GEFS mean 10:1 snowfall 0z Sun - 0z Thur...

Individual member Total 10:1 snowfall thru 0z Thur...

0z UK is a solid hit for most of the forum esp CNY. Huge improvement. Could be a foreshadow of upcoming Euro run.

BGM actually referenced it in the long term this morning. Think it's the first time I've seen a nws office even mention it before.

12z EPS mean actually went SE or atleast contracted on the NW side a bit vs. 0z.

Mean 10:1 snowfall 

individual member total 10:1 snowfall

0z EPS offers much hope. Lots of heavy hitters...

Mean 10:1 snowfall from 0z Mon - 0z Thur

Individual member total 10:1 snowfall thru 0z Thur...

0z EPS mean actually expanded significantly n/w compared to 12z. 

0z GEFS mean 10:1 snowfall for 6z Sunday - 6z Thur...