BGM Blizzard

Finally reached the 4.0" mark for running total. Probably 0.5"/hr rate currently and hopefully that's now sustained for a good while after inconsistent and unsteady rates since the snow restarted around noon. Temp now 26.

20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

NAMs ticked up here...time will tell

Thinking 11-12 total here including what already fallen.

Outside of the east facing slopes of the Catskills, LEK spot in the hills of West Central Madison Co looks like the model consensus bullseye for upstate.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

My uncle and aunt live there in the hills, they said its been a fun winter. Snowcover the entire winter so far.

Yep, for sure. The Xmas eve washout took away about 80% of our snowpack the week after the big 44" storm, but we've sustained atleast 4 inches on the ground since that storm.

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If you get 12-18" for this storm and next weeks looks big too. That would put you over 100 and pattern looks good going forward. Potential is there.

Yeah not impossible if the pattern is supportive. Would be pretty amazing to break the all time record again after just 4 years. 2015-16 was the least snowiest on record too, so it would be a 3rd all-time record breaker in a 6 year span.

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This winter has potential to be Binghamtons all time winter season. They've jack-potted in every single event.

Eh, I was looking at these numbers yesterday and think it will be a long shot. All time snowiest was 2016-17 with 135" and by end of January 2017 we had 70". As of yesterday we were at 68". In 2017, we had 23" in Feb and also had the big 30"+ blizzard in March. This winter still has alot of work to do to keep up.

Mod snow rate here. Been off and on .25-.5/hr rate so far since noon. Roads are starting to cover over again. Temp is 30.

Some more 12z EPS images

12z EPS mean is a bit east...

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Post in Storm thread.

No its for the possible storm around day 7.

Euro 48 hour precip for storm duration. Definitely picks up on some enhancement off LO. Will see what EPS shows in a bit.

12z euro fwiw

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Surprised its that warm there. 23 here in roc some flurries.

Yeah its weird. I am in a valley but surrounding obs show mid 20s around me even at lesser elevation. But both my digital weather station and the ole mercury thermometer both say 31. It's like my small town has some sort imported urban heat island effect going on.

Probably about 0.5"/hr rate here now. Roads are still wet. Temp is holding at 32.

12z high-res RGEM...

12z high-res RGEM...

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Toasty. HI-res update? Stuck on initialization on tidbits.

Out to 0z Wednesday. Almost there.

Temp has shot up to 33 here while sitting in this lull. Precip about to start back up...

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

It's already out...see above.

Pivotal has the 10km version of RGEM. I think he referring to the 2.5km hi-res version. The 12z run is out to 15 hours so far.

Initial batch of light snow associated with original primary seems to be decaying over CNY now as the coastal low starts to take over...

Sitting on 3" here and a lull. Waiting for precip to fill back in from the southeast...

6z High res 2.5k reg Canadian...

Latest 7z HRRR run only has BGM getting another 2.1" by 18z even on the kuchera ratio. At this rate we will get that by 12z.

6z NAM appears to be taking a step back for whatever reason with precip for later today and Tuesday. Not sure can trust the models at all right now. Definitely going to be a nowcasting storm.

2.2" here so far and snow growth has improved significantly. Id estimate around 0.5"/hr rate right now. We are definitely overperforming against the modeling thus far in the early going just as BGM pointed out with their update a few hours ago.

As expected following the Op run, the 0z EPS expanded precip back to the NW...