ragtop50

Per Greg Fishel on Raleigh area I have to be very careful the way I word this. As I have stated from the beginning with this storm, it's not a textbook case. There are a lot of unique qualities and idiosyncrasies that are causing a lot of meteorologists, including myself, to tear their hair out! The general consensus is that the higher the resolution of a model, the better the forecast. And a lot of times that's true. It's like taking a picture of houses on the other side of a lake. The lower resolution camera will see 4 houses as 1, while the higher resolution camera will see all 4 houses clearly. But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors! it is true that the high resolution guidance is killing this event for the Triangle. But the actual observations across the state are already contrasting with what these models are showing. Sometimes you have to take a step back and think about the meteorology and not just regurgitate model output. Having said that, could I be wrong with my 4-7? Sure could. But even if that happens, I will not change the way I forecast the weather. If my job was solely to read a map and share those numbers wtih you, how much value do I have? I would hope you would expect me to go beyond that and attempt to add a human element to my forecast. So I'm sticking to my guns. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. With the kind of solid to liquid ratios we're looking at, were not gonna need a ton of precipitation to achieve those totals. Time will tell. Thanks for reading. I'm making this post public so as many people as possible can find out about the product I offer here.

Old information. Fayetteville will probably never get over some of it's past reputation, but it is nothing like it used to be.

I will, just had the rugged pulled down here too many times

During the Raleigh NWS briefing (posted on YouTube), they touch in this and emphasize that there very well could be a dry slot somewhere and that some people could end up with less than they are forecasting, but how do you put that on a map when you don't know where and to what degree (and it keeps changing)? So their amounts are outside of that happening. And just the same they mentioned some areas could obviously be higher.

GFS says it is going to die on this hill if necessary

The one with 26 is probability of snow over 4 inches, not actual snowfall. Trust me, I got excited with that one at first as well!

Few flakes flying around here just north of Fayetteville in Linden (northern Cumberland County)

RAH update, mentions the updates to warnings would later if done .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday... Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z- initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon, before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the day. -GIH

I am not sure that having those two in your camp vs GFS/NAM is a great position to be in, I feel your pain

Did you take those pictures with a drone?

18Z NAM showing some strong cells in central NC Monday night. RAH mentions severe threat with an isolated tornado possible.

I have been communicating with my brother in Wilmington, and it is BAD in that area. He has never seen flooding this bad in that area, and he has been through many hurricanes down there.

The shear is still forecast to subside

That is from the 5 a.m. discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?hwind120#wcontents