Flatheadsickness

rotation just east of oil city

this wont be Pa. typical high base stuff today. The storms will will have no problem getting energy to the ground today

We have been cooking over here for a few hours now and I am close enough to you that my lift is your lift. Its over shooting tops for for you today my friend

Its about to explode .its all comeing together now. the sun has been in and out here for the last few hours .

looks like three days in a row now for a good chunk of Pa. SPC just put almost all of Pa under slight risk for Wed and marginal risk for Thur but expect Thursday to be upgraded to slight by tonight . The decaying convection that is entering are area now at 5:00am should be well east of here this time in plenty of time for day time heating to destabilize the atmosphere plenty .

Next posable threat after tomorrow is Thursday then it flattens off for a few days. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough over the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of D4/Thursday will migrate northeast and phase with a larger scale trough over southeastern Canada. With warm/moist air in place and strong deep shear, a severe threat will exist with any convection that can develop over the Northeast (particularly New York and Pennsylvania) during the afternoon and early evening. Models are not particularly consistent with regard the location of surface features (i.e., boundaries, low pressure areas, etc.) in the region, which lends uncertainty for highlighting specific locations of a heightened threat.

< Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook > May 27, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon May 27 17:30:54 UTC 2019 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SIG SEVERE 90,538 7,287,914 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE... 30 % 107,003 13,592,805 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...Lincoln, NE... 15 % 259,222 34,872,365 Philadelphia, PA...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO... 5 % 244,911 59,848,044 New York, NY...Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN... Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info) Forecast Discussion SPC AC 271730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS FROM OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms (capable of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes) are possible Tuesday from the central and southern Plains eastward to the Midwest. Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes are also possible from the Ohio Valley into a portion of the Northeast States Tuesday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move off the northeast coast Tuesday morning, while upstream a more significant upper trough will move into the central Plains before continuing northeast into the upper MS Valley region Tuesday night. By 12Z Tuesday the surface pattern should be characterized by a warm front from eastern PA northwest to a surface low over the Great Lakes. A cold or stationary front will trail southwestward from this low to another area of low pressure over the central Plains. A dryline/Pacific front will extend southward from the central Plains low through western KS and western TX. ...Southern and central Plains through the upper Midwest... Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to around 70F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates associated with the eastward expansion of the elevated mixed layer. Some areas of stratus may reside across a portion of this region, but should mix out by late morning to early afternoon, with diabatic warming further contributing to destabilization with MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg likely. Warm air at the base of the EML will likely result in at least a modest cap in much of the warm sector. By mid afternoon, forcing attending a mid-level jet moving northeast through the base of the upper trough should result in storm initiation along the Pacific front from south central NE through central KS and possibly as far south as western OK. Some CAMs also indicate a separate area of storm development along a portion of the warm conveyor belt from eastern KS into MO and southern IA. Wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode, but some storms will eventually evolve into linear MCSs. While low-level hodographs are forecast to remain modest most of the day, 0-1 km helicity should increase by early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats, but a window for tornadoes will exist especially from late afternoon through early evening. Overnight, most storms will have evolved into lines or clusters, but will continue to pose a severe threat as they continue east through the upper Midwest, mainly within zone of ascent along and just north of the stationary front. ...Ohio Valley into a portion of the northeast States... An area of rain and thunderstorms developing within zone of isentropic ascent on the cool side of a warm front and in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough, will move through a portion of the Northeast States early in the day. In wake of this activity surface dewpoints in the upper 60s will advect eastward through the warm sector contributing to moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate at least a weak inversion associated with the eastern extension of the elevated mixed layer. However, storms will likely initiate along the stationary front as well as lake breezes and spread southeast through the warm sector. This region will remain within zone of moderate westerlies with 35-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including supercells and bowing line segments. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats with this activity, but a couple of tornadoes will also be possible through early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% - Enhanced Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Dial.. 05/27/2019

A few of the guys at the nws write like there at the top of there game but thats where it ends. That said the lack of noise to the north and west has me leaning with them at this point. If storms do initiate this afternoon it will happen fast.

I hope the SPC WINS THIS ONE>

per nws The line of fast moving convection continues to outrun the unstable air and so far the storms have underperformed in what was an enhanced outlook for severe storms. The RAP still wants to destabilize the SERN zones where a new watch is in effect. Shear remains impressive with forecast EHIs/STPs about as high as they get for this part of the world. The big question is if the Lower Susq can destabilize fast enough to feed these storms that are racing east at 40-50 mph. The second biggest question will be if new storms can manage to form over the western and northern parts of the CWA where the airmass has not been changed and dewpoints remain in the 60s. Different flavors of the HREF have differing solutions with the most pessimistic member developing a new line and taking until about 10PM to have it drop SE to the Mason-Dixon line. Some HREF members just develop some scattered activity at worst. I suspect that unless we see some upstream activity starting to spark off very soon, at worst we will see some late afternoon scattered activity and the current line will be the main event. Afternoon high temps will be several deg above normal or in the mid 70s north and lower to mid 80s in the southern valleys. What there is of any convection, either left over or yet to form, should dwindle early this evening as drier air sweeps into the forecast area. Lows will drop back into the comfortable 50s to lower 60s.

Spc says sheer doesn't get any stronger in this part of the world than what we have in are region today. This may be the second time this year we just missed a historical bullet.

The first line was not to be the main threat today . According to the Spc its the cold front that drops in in a few hours that was to trigger the main sever weather. NWS seems to think the cold front my not initiate. On the other hand The spc still calling for multiple clusters and cellular activity this afternoon. Either way lots of changed wording and flipflopping from both nws and spc to save there ass.

lDay 4 (Saturday) Shortwave trough will crest upper ridge and move through the Great Lakes during the day before turning southeast into the Northeast States Saturday night. Surface low accompanying this feature will move through eastern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast States. Western extension of front should stall across the Central Plains. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Low 60s F dewpoints will advect through the OH Valley warm sector Saturday contributing to modest instability. Thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the cold front located across the southern Great Lakes and spread southeast into the OH Valley and a portion of the Northeast States. Strong unidirectional wind profiles attending the northern-stream trough will be sufficient for a few organized severe storms. Other strong to severe storms will be possible along portion of the front over the Central Plains where strong instability will reside. Development along West Texas dryline remains uncertain at this time given apparent weak convergence and presence of low-amplitude ridge.

Stuck close to the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge with strong flow aloft is my idea of a good late spring summer. It would be great if it would dominate summer again like the mid 80's through early 90's. . Never the less I have known for the last few month's I would love the spring and summer kind of a no brainer for stupid old me.

SPC AC 220600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A significant shortwave trough will rotate through the base of an upper low centered over the Great Basin 12Z Thursday and into the central High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will crest an upper ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and move through the Great Lakes before turning southeast into the Northeast States Thursday evening. At the surface a warm or stationary front will likely extend from the middle MS Valley region southwest into southern KS. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Warm front is expected to lift slowly north through central and eastern KS, while the dryline mixes through west TX during the day. Farther east a surface low attending the northern-stream shortwave trough will move through southern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes. A warm front will advance east into a portion of the Northeast States. ...Central and southern Plains... Elevated storms may be ongoing over a portion of western and central KS north of the warm front early Thursday and could pose some risk for large hail. A very moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 F will reside in the warm sector from southern KS to OK and TX beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forcing for ascent attending the northeast-ejecting upper jet will glance western portion of the warm sector and in vicinity of the dryline that should mix east into the TX Panhandle and west TX. Storms development is probable along this boundary from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS where convergence will be maximized. Vertical wind profiles with 45-55 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells, and 0-2km hodographs size will also increase as the low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon and evening. Activity will spread northeast with all hazards possible with storms remaining in warm sector. Some storms may eventually move or develop north of the warm front, but strong effective bulk shear and moderate MUCAPE will still support potential for supercells with large hail. Overnight the entrance region of the upper jet and merging of Pacific front with dryline should promote additional severe thunderstorm development across west TX. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates, along with diabatic warming contributing to modest instability (800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE). Current indications are that storms will most likely develop along and ahead of southeast-advancing cold front spread southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast States during the afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.

Then you will love this Mr. Atom I may have to break out the Cookies and Chem Dawg cross for this one. Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday. This is a classic supercell and potential large hail-producing environment as storm relative inflow/updraft helicity will be unusually high INVOF sfc warm front/lee trough across Ncent PA and the Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Low LCLs under 3000 FT AGL covering much of Central and Eastern PA and strong LLVL shear will lead to 0-1km EHIs of 2-4(m^2/sec^2) near the warm front/lee trough over the central and eastern zones between 21Z Thu and 00Z Fri. The threat of several tornado-producing supercells will occur across this same region from mid afternoon to around dusk. In addition to the anticipated hail and isolated tornado threat, the supercells and their strong updrafts will occasionally collapse into fast moving mini bow/spearhead echoes that have the potential for producing localized, straight line winds in excess of 75 mph and swaths of wind damage. Storm total QPF will likely average between 3 and 6 tenths of an inch given the fast storm motion. Localized one inch amounts are possible where two or more TSRA occur. In the wake of the Thursday`s active weather, a slightly cooler and drier day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms. as a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12Z models show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the top of the subtropical ridge.

text book blip 6 in progress just south of shepherdstown and antietam Md with Ball. Not good

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... It appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may linger across much of the intermountain region and Rockies into the middle of the coming work week, before at least one significant perturbation emerging from it accelerates across parts of the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. It is possible that this could be accompanied by considerable vigorous thunderstorm development along/east and south of a dryline and surface frontal zone across the southern and central Plains into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Wednesday, which may spread across parts of the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic Coast region on Thursday. However, the extent of any associated severe weather potential remains unclear, and may largely depend on the evolution of preceding day's convection, the predictability of which, at this time, remains relatively low. Thereafter, late this week through next weekend, stronger mid/upper flow may become more confined to a zonal regime across the northern tier of the U.S., where instability may remain too weak to support much more than relatively minor severe thunderstorm potential. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2019

I just came in from fixing and turning on my misting system . I found tonight very refreshing I don't think it feels to bad here in my little world. There was no frost at my house yet but the dew is heavy and getting very opaque .

Looks like day 4 could be a big day for the south central us. Would not be surprised for Pa. to get its fair share of stronger convection over the next week.

I just now saw the warming hole thing . My above thoughts have no relation .

Warm air keeps returning in a hurry after the cold fronts this spring. Just the other night we had a back door drop in and the cooler air retreated in about 20 hours . Looks to be warm muggy time ahead. My garden is vigorous early no burnt tips this year. Toads spawned early.

Va. Nc. and Sc. all upgraded to Moderate Risk over night. Slight or Enhanced risk may creep its way into are area tonight as the stronger impulse lifts north.

As usual the line fell apart over my area. We get very few solid lines from the west or southwest here in Lewisberry Most lines split my area and then recongeal to the west. We do ok with the discreet stuff and any line that drops in. I got to see another early season light show to the north walking the dog. Right now and The storm as a whole looks like a nukes fiery stem rising into the mushroom. Pretty Awesome for April. My benchmark QLCS type storms all came in the 80's and early 90's Two in November 1989 Both I believe qualified as derechos one being by far the best lightning I have ever seen in my area and the other being a Funkin crazy scary and very rare low dewpoint derecho the wind just kept building for hours before the squal. Its Only storm that ever scared me in my home. I don't remember the year for the third and it my not have been qlcs types but It was memorable hot and humid that day. luckily I was not at camp I was At Hershey for the Big 33 and Raghib the Rocket Ismail was playing in that game . I remember the newspaper article saying they say Lightning doesn't strike twice with A pic of the Rocket scoring and lighting in the background. The Whole valley got pounded that night so I assume it was a powerful line of storms. A bunch of kids at my camp where injured that night by a falling tree and also had there ear drums ruptured by close hits of lightning. The Foken good old days when storms needed no hype.

my mistake just thunderstorm warnings in Va. and Nc.