Flatheadsickness

Screw feeling good at work tomorrow I am heading out.

O yes it dose

Its looking like a little surprise might be upon us .

Late October storms can get quite nasty at the low levels compared to some other months around here . Hold on to your candy if your man enough keyboard jockeys .

< Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook > Oct 30, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Oct 30 17:24:17 UTC 2019 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Probabilistic Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Regions Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area ENHANCED 56,595 17,249,616 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC... SLIGHT 91,011 18,636,059 Philadelphia, PA...Charlotte, NC...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...Fayetteville, NC... MARGINAL 151,977 36,655,971 New York, NY...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA... Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Forecast Discussion SPC AC 301724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are expected across much of the eastern U.S. Thursday -- particularly from areas along and east of the central and southern Appalachians to the mid Atlantic and Carolinas coastal areas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the central U.S. at the start of the period will evolve into a deepening closed low with time, as the system shifts quickly east-northeastward across the Midwest, and then into the Northeast overnight. As this occurs, the broader trough surrounding the low will gradually take on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt, through the end of the period. As this occurs, a cold front -- initially trailing from a low near the KY vicinity southward across Alabama to near the mouth of the Mississippi River -- will advance steadily eastward during the day. The front should cross the Appalachian crest by afternoon, as the parent low rapidly deepens and eventually occludes over the Lower Great Lakes area, reaching the Atlantic coast after midnight. This front will focus a band of showers and thunderstorms -- and attendant risk for severe weather primarily along and east of the mountains. ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the southern Appalachians... A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of an advancing surface cold front. A secondary area of showers -- perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity. Only minimal severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of convection through the first several hours of the period. With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual organization of a band of frontal convection. Very strong flow aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected. By late afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA, and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. While suggestive of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are largely not anticipated. Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up -- particularly from late afternoon through mid evening. As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 10/30/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1859Z (2:59PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Categorical Probabilistic Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Regions Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 120,908 27,514,107 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC... MARGINAL 125,227 20,388,350 Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Knoxville, TN... Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Forecast Discussion SPC AC 300549 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley into portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to mature into a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone as it moves through the mid MS and OH Valleys and into eastern Ontario and the Northeast States. Very strong mid/upper-level flow will accompany this system, with a 100+ kt 500-mb jet streak moving throughout its eastern periphery across the TN/OH Valleys and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the IN/OH border early Thursday with an attendant cold front extending south-southwestward through middle TN and central AL and off the central Gulf Coast. This low will occlude as it moves north-northeastward throughout the day. The attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the eastern CONUS, moving off the East Coast of the CONUS late Thursday night. Thunderstorms are anticipated along the length of this front, some which could be severe. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic States... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the broad pre-frontal warm sector from the Southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Moisture advection ahead of the front will likely result in low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast, upper 60s/low 70s across much of the Mid-Atlantic, and mid 60s as far north as PA and NJ. Diurnal heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and antecedent precipitation but ample low-level will still result in modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) ahead of the front. Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the mid to late afternoon. Thereafter, the fast-moving cold front will likely catch up to these pre-frontal storms, leading to a consolidation of all the deep convection along the front. The strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the entire region and a few of the pre-frontal storms may be able to organize enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Once storms consolidate along the front, strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with vertically veering wind profiles will likely lead to a narrow but well-organized convective line. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat within the line and the highest coverage of severe storms is currently expected across the Mid-Atlantic states, from central PA through western SC. A few tornadoes are possible within the line, particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic where low-level flow will be strongest. Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low. However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent deep convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 10/30/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0818Z (4:18AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME