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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    UKMET and EURO are still east enough that I think ground truth ending up between the GFS and other models would leave us happy. We are always walking a fine line, 24 hours ago we needed a huge west shift to even be in the game. We get it, and now we're already worrying about mixing haha.
  2. dj3
    CIPS analogs has 1/94 pretty high up there along with PD2 and Feb 2010 a little lower. GFS is starting to have the look of a hybrid miller A/B with a primary running up west and then transferring. That can certainly be good for us provided it doesn't hang on too long and we have a strong enough HP. A blend of the GFS and EURO at this point would be pretty solid for us I would think.
  3. dj3
    Interesting that the GFS OP doesn't seem to be caving at all with the western track for the last several runs. Euro did take us from nothing to at least a few inches, although on the western fringe like you said. I am sorta liking where we sit at this point.
  4. dj3
    18z eps looks east slightly from 12z. Lots of time on this and there will be some waffling back and forth. I just don’t want to see the ops start spitting out any really suppressed solutions again.
  5. dj3
    18z gefs still looks west of 12z correct or am I missing something?
  6. dj3
    Man, there are some deep solutions on the EPS. With GFS/EURO/CMC all shifted massively in the same direction it really makes me wonder if they are catching on to a big storm for someone. Not necessarily meaning us, just interesting to see such a big jump in lock step like that.
  7. dj3
    That is about as drastic shift in our direction we could hope for in one run on the EURO. Still time for things to trend more in our direction and I wonder with a low pressure that strong if we wouldn't see more qpf thrown back west.
  8. dj3
    12z 6z
  9. dj3
    Looks like a pretty substantial shift west in the tracks on the 12z GEFS. Most of them are hits for VA/MD/south of us but this looks to be trending away from a fish storm hopefully.
  10. dj3
    I would be perfectly fine with us being on the northern fringe of a bigger storm for even a light to moderate event. I just don't want to waste a decent week of cold with no precipitation or storm.
  11. dj3
    That's a run I'll be saving. Approaching 2 inches of liquid equivalent region wide so Kuchera wouldn't even be that far fetched.
  12. dj3
    Hope this trend is real that the op GFS seems to be picking up on the last few runs.
  13. dj3
    Where do we sign? I'm not sure how likely the evolution in getting to this frame is but I prefer this over the storm digging too far south from the midwest and heading out to sea.
  14. dj3
    After watching the first half and eliminating the possibility of a kneeling 70 minute game I went to bed thinking no chance it would organically make it into overtime. I am shocked that once in overtime it did not end up in a tie. I agree with both you and @RitualOfTheTroutthat it would be too complex to fix that type of result. But I do find it funny that multiple sportsbooks had liabilities in the millions for that game ending in a tie after the Jags moneyline hit.
  15. dj3
    Very light snow here currently. Will be tough to make 2-4 if rates don’t pick up. Nice to see the ground white and snow in there at least.
  16. dj3
    I would probably half as* the summer discussions and go all out for Dec-Mar ones because I am a snow .
  17. dj3
    I can remember when I was growing up always going directly to state college's AFD anytime a significant event was being modeled. Incredible how much more detailed and how much more it sounds like they generally enjoy the discussions.
  18. dj3
    I'll enjoy 2-4 falling in colder than typical temps at night where everything should stick. I think potential on this has been limited more and more by how fast moving this will be. Pattern looks better in the longer range maybe something to watch the weekend of the 16th like was shown on yesterday's 12z Euro.
  19. dj3
    Flurries in Collier Twp, hopefully a good sign we won't be fighting dry air at the start of the event?
  20. dj3
    Yes the boundary is too far south and the storm develops too far south for us. It also looks like a weak POS for pretty much everywhere compared to the good runs it was spitting out from the earlier runs. I'll settle for any snow since it has been non-existent this winter but with these trends we could end up with nothing.
  21. dj3
    Looks to be cold Thursday night for when the snow would hopefully be falling.
  22. dj3
    It’s still early in the week but I would like to see the GFS include a few hits in there for us.
  23. dj3
    Never good having the Euro as the most amped. I’d feel much better if the GFS was on board. It did well with the storm today for the mid Atlantic.
  24. dj3
    Looks like both it and the GFS are moving away from the mega cutter idea from yesterday. That look from mid next week on looks much better than yesterday. Hopefully it is catching on to something?
  25. dj3
    Cutter on the 1st and nothing happening on the follow up wave. Basically a frontal passage.
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