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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    Rgem would be a huge hit if it went out further I think. I like gfs and Canadian precip swath better than the spotty crap the Nam threw out there. This is a pretty dynamic system you’d think someone is getting really good rates
  2. dj3
    That other low pressure reflection meandering in central west virginia probably doesn't help with the dryslot. I'll write it off to bad luck if we get the models spot on with that dry slot from 100 hours out.
  3. dj3
    The low track seems perfect. Is this more just subsidence between the really good banding just west of the occluded low pressure and the deform band much further west? I would expect a dry slot if this was tracking right over head but it isn't.
  4. dj3
    Yep. Was worried about a shift east but looks really similar to 6z
  5. dj3
    I'll be concerned if the GFS OP starts to follow the ensembles. It did the best with first picking up on the trend for a storm Monday and Tuesday.
  6. dj3
    A lot of good hits in there. That’s the best eps run I’ve seen thus far with the least number of total whiffs. Consensus building I would say for some type of impact.
  7. dj3
    Hopefully that is ok to copy and paste those. Apologize if not.
  8. dj3
  9. dj3
    Just going by snowfall maps from upstate ny thread.
  10. dj3
    I count about 15-20 closes misses or whiffs on individual members. Almost all look to be East.
  11. dj3
    Mean snowfall increased a bit from 12z.
  12. dj3
    I think the last few cycles that ocean storm has trended closer to the coast and slower to depart but it had been offset by the northern steam energy phasing in being stronger and forcing this directly north like @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned. I’m guessing we will need that to continue to be as potent or the ocean storm trends will shift this east.
  13. dj3
    From what I’ve read we want that to move out quicker or be further East so that ridging can build along the coast and not allow this to escape out to sea/force it more inland toward the apps or coastal plain.
  14. dj3
    Yea a bunch of scrapes misses to the East on there. Still half or so with a decent to big hit
  15. dj3
    Where at? Would love to be in the Laurels for this.
  16. dj3
    EPS mean bumped up a decent amount like the GEFS did. 6 inch line splitting Allegheny county. I agree with both of you above, I am still slightly more concerned that the low does not get pulled directly north and takes more of an out to sea trajectory. Until I see some of the misses on the ensembles start to become slop/west misses I still think we have some wiggle room there.
  17. dj3
    @RitualOfTheTrout That looks pretty similar to Jan 1994 right? That was high on the CIPS analogs. The low goes due north from myrtle beach and strengthening on the way. Extremely rare track but would be great for us if it can hold.
  18. dj3
    So how do we get this to hold for 96ish more hours?
  19. dj3
  20. dj3
    Yea that is way west from 00z. GEFS look like they took a big jump for us. Mean over 6 inches regionwide with several members over a foot.
  21. dj3
    Thanks. Yea I'd gladly take what it is showing regardless, especially with the cold look afterwards any significant accumulations will be awesome.
  22. dj3
    I am only settling for the top 3 GEFS ensemble members @MikeB_01 posted this morning due to them being higher than the spread of the Steeler game on Sunday night. I will adjust my expectations accordingly if we are winning at halftime
  23. dj3
    Cut back on precip totals some, especially east of the city. Still a nice run for now.
  24. dj3
    A lot of the western tracks on the ensembles (GFS and EURO only ones I looked at this morning) are actually pretty big hits for us. The mean isn't higher because there are still a decent number of suppressed solutions and misses east.
  25. dj3
    Looks like this would be a pretty nice hit on the ICON.
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