dj3

@Rd9108bunch of acceptable hits in there for us.

The snow mean actually looks decent so there must be some solutions with a track more inland than the op.

Yep still a big storm signal but that particular solution would leave us with nothing to show for with the cold front coming through. Northern stream digs so far south that we miss out on even light accumulation and coastal pops too far east.

Progressive GFS bias maybe at play?

Looks way better than yesterday at least. Late phasing miller B probably isn't our wheelhouse but definitely better looking today.

I know this map includes sleet but let's remember this for our first actual threat when we have to look at the NAM haha.

Alarming and incredibly annoying even though it is only an OP run. Guidance continues to want to dump trough after trough into the west in what was supposedly our cold and active period.

Euro OP says book the tee times in that period.

Dry as a bone after the storm rolls through Thursday but don't worry it looks like it may try to cut the system on 22/23!

At this point I’d settle for some lake effect snow showers behind the system Fri/sat but looks like we’ve lost that look as well.

6z is still a moderate his as well. The trend has been to get the secondary low developing further south so hopefully the euro follows.

Yea the pattern is finally moving forward I think we should be in for an active last half of December. Maybe delayed but not denied?

Looking like we're pushing things back until the big cutter shown on 13/14th moves through. Frustrating wasting the first half of December.

The Euro and CMC look better but both still a bit too warm for us.

The GFS continues to drop the trough out west run after run.

Yea much better look from the op this run

It would be nice to see an op run show something other than cutter after cutter despite what the ensembles say.

From what I'm reading in the NE forum highly anomalous blocking events can lead to trouble with modeling while the block is getting established. Also I think we are so starved to track something we have to realize this storm is still over a week out lol so not that unreasonable to expect big shifts.

Yea I agree I wouldn't mind pushing it back if we have a wintry Christmas week.

Wild swings from run to run so maybe too early to write if off completely. It is looking like the good pattern is getting pushed more into mid month though.

You can already see the block making a big difference on the storm early next week that was a massive cutter into Wisconsin a few days ago. I think we're headed in the right direction come mid Dec.

Interested in hearing your or anyone else's thoughts on what is more important for our area (PNA/NAO) since it is looking boring for a little while. 2009/2010 was our last BIG storm and Jan 2016 being a narrow miss both had the massive -NAO. It seems like the last few times we've seen a decent blocking event materialize we waste a large chunk of it trying to get the airmass underneath the block cold enough. I know bigger events tend to occur during NAO phase changes so I'm guessing NAO is important for a big storm and +PNA/-EPO gives more chances at moderate events. Just curious if we are rooting for the same thing as the MA/NE since we don't quite fit into either region.

Boring week coming up. Maybe tracking this time next week?

Always in the mood to track snow haha. The models have been pretty consistent with showing some sort of storm Thanksgiving weekend and have moved away from the idea of a massive cutter. Also wondering if we could pick up some light snow tomorrow afternoon with a disturbance rolling through.

From Blizz in CPA thread.. What I wouldn't give lol....