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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    The Nam is wild. It went from no storm to being our biggest hit in 36 hours
  2. dj3
    Wondering if we sacrifice a stronger storm Tuesday to bomb out and reinforce NAO block next week. Potent shortwave into the TV/OV with the transfer to coast.. Sorta like what was depicted for tomorrow.
  3. dj3
    Haha I despise playing in the winter so even if it was warm enough I probably wouldn't. I'd like a snowy Dec-Feb then it can flip the switch and March and we're on to golf season. That never seems to happen lately though. I remember playing at Totter Ridge memorial day weekend a few years back and it was in the 40s in the afternoon. Hands were numb and could barely hold on to the club.
  4. dj3
    I think it is because we are far enough away from the low on the coast where our precipitation is light. Some of the big hits it showed a few days back I would guess were all snow and actually colder due to the heavier rates aiding in dynamic cooling.
  5. dj3
    Will be interesting to see how the 1/9 and 1/14 threats play out. Morale will be low in here if those both trend the midwest primary lows stronger leading to slop while this Saturday's OH valley low essentially disentegrated leaving us out of the snow it had advertised with the primary and transfer.
  6. dj3
    That trailing wave is a PITA. Unfortunately, I don't know if that will disappear now that it seems to be trending stronger/faster on everything.
  7. dj3
    Seems like the long range look past day 10 or so looks promising as many others have mentioned.
  8. dj3
    Faster flow, less spacing, and a weaker wave overall. This was a much slower moving system with long duration potential not that long ago. From this To this.. Maybe the interaction with the wave behind it trends less and our main shortwave can amp back up in future runs. If not nothing wrong with a moderate event to get us on the board.
  9. dj3
    If not for mitch being #2, Mason probably wins at least 1/3 vs Arizona, Pats, and Indy and we would already be in at this point. I don't love our chances if it is a slop game in Baltimore with their rushing attack, even if it is backups. Besides the Steelers, I'd prefer a saturday storm.
  10. dj3
    This storm has really sped up on the models the last 36-48 hours. I was originally thinking when they flexed the steelers to 430 Sat the game would be over before the storm got cranking. We're looking at a mostly saturday show now. 12z looks good so far fingers crossed while waiting on EURO
  11. dj3
    We have not had a single storm that was trackable this winter so far. I will gladly take the last 24-36 hours where there is actually something to look at regardless of what we end up with. Anything beats weeks and weeks of pattern talk.
  12. dj3
    The trend needed to stop 3 runs ago. Let’s hope we get fringed south until Sunday evening
  13. dj3
    I’m too lazy to look up the numbers but I remember February 09 had a crazy warm spell. Either way this winter has been dogsh*t. Probably the least fun in the 2 years I’ve been tracking. We’ll get an above normal winter again.. probably soon.. climate change is real and none of us will be alive at a point where the snowfall amount this winter is considered “normal”. See you guys next fall.
  14. dj3
    At the in-laws in Johnstown for the rest of the week so figured I’d pop in this thread. Picked up over an inch already this morning
  15. dj3
    At least our epic pattern is breaking down the day after Christmas. Melt complete
  16. dj3
    It is crazy that people way smarter than me don’t see what’s happening. Last cutter was modeled to have some snow behind. Maybe we get what we got last night. That’s a huge disappointment
  17. dj3
    Good luck with the wrap around
  18. dj3
    Yea that works out almost never with snow on the back end. Christmas a few years ago is the only one that comes to mind recently where there was actually appreciable snow when the front moved through and I believe there was a wave moving along the boundary which helped. I’d bet on brown ground unless this shifts significantly east.
  19. dj3
    That was predictable. The optimist in me says this won’t be a coastal but maybe won’t be a huge cutter so I think we’re in better shape than I-95
  20. dj3
    Don't worry at 18z the GFS will probably jackpot us as it begins to cave to the other models.
  21. dj3
    I'm thinking that low that moves through the lakes Monday/Tuesday on the GFS is important in keeping the heights lower out ahead of our storm?
  22. dj3
    CMC looks like the ICON.
  23. dj3
    I think it is viewed as worse than the other models. GFS looks like its gonna be a beatdown.
  24. dj3
    Euro Verbatim is pretty good for us. What we don't want is the Euro to show that frontal passage look it was a few days ago.. which the ICON just did lol.
  25. dj3
    Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne.
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