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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    It seems to be shaping up to be such a tough forecast. With Allegheny county being the battle zone (again lol) I could see a scenario where I leave work west of the city with icing and by the time I get home I'm sitting in 33 and rain for another a few hours. Tomorrow night seems dicey so I certainly don't envy you if you do end up working. Hope things are safe either way for you.
  2. dj3
    We already have some patients calling and cancelling tomorrow morning. Can't say I'm really surprised based on the timing of the Winter Storm Warning even though impact should be later on as you stated. I'm probably in wait and see mode about leaving/closing early tomorrow.
  3. dj3
    Yea that agrees with the NWS point and click forecast too. GFS is the earliest with the changeover it looks like. This will be a tricky forecast for sure.
  4. dj3
    6z euro ticked north west a bit it looks like judging by tropical tidbits products.
  5. dj3
    I'll take ice to a few inches of snow on the back end. 33 and rain does nothing for me but I can understand if you are worried about driving in the ice. Thursday PM commute may be a tricky one.
  6. dj3
    It’s also south/east and earlier with freezing line pushing through compared to the 18z run. All I need to ignore the 12k run is the fact that hour 54 essentially has no precipitation anywhere in PA compared to its previous run where the entire state was engulfed. The nam often seems super inconsistent and jumpy to me. Don’t get me wrong I’d rather it show a big hit for us but I don’t think it should be weighted the same as the gfs or euro.
  7. dj3
    That had to be a toss run just looks really wonky. 3k not finished yet but looks better
  8. dj3
    The nam looks way different than the previous run and frankly way different than any other guidance in regards to precipitation on the back edge. I don’t know how much stock should be put in it. The gfs and euro both showed it still snowing at 18z Friday. The nam is like 12 hours faster. Also the gfs has a low pressure in Georgia the same timeframe the Nam has a low overhead?
  9. dj3
    Obviously too early to know the final outcome, but let's say this does end up as 33 and rain for the majority of the area. This would be the exact type of storm that gets a bunch of people complaining about how you shouldn't trust the weather on the news lol.
  10. dj3
    3K looks a little bit colder but still plain rain through most of Allegheny county.
  11. dj3
    They won't and probably shouldn't considering it is only 1 NAM run and we know it can wildly jump. If the GFS starts caving possibly overnight after the 0z runs.
  12. dj3
    I tried not to get very interested in this storm so I'd probably be less annoyed than normal if that is the final outcome. I do think its funny that the local news has seemed to hype this potential at a longer range than the MLK storm. I was getting texts from family Monday morning asking about the storm that was coming. Must be because of the icing potential.
  13. dj3
    I think there was a run last week where the NAM went from a bomb to almost a complete whiff for the Boston blizzard. And it was not very far out, within 60 hours I believe.
  14. dj3
    I would think the GFS starts to tick back towards other consensus at this point but who knows. Nam looks significantly north at hour 48 compared to 12z.
  15. dj3
    It was but we probably need 1-2 more of those ticks without going backwards. GFS seems to linger the moisture longer as well. ETA: I didn't see hour 78 at that point. I guess the Euro does have some lingering precip as well just seems lighter than the GFS on the back edge.
  16. dj3
    So close. I'd feel better if it wasn't the southern outlier right now.
  17. dj3
    It doesn't get the job done on this run but the NAM does look a decent amount south from the 12z.
  18. dj3
    Need the high to press in quicker and as ritual said more pieces of energy gives more time for the cold to press like the GFS showed. The more strong and consolidated look at ejecting the southern shortwave on the euro doesn't give the high enough time to do its dirty work and get the boundary south.
  19. dj3
    Looks pretty close to 0z last night but possibly a tick south. Hopefully it will come around to a flatter colder/solution.
  20. dj3
    Hopefully it is playing in to the same tendency it had this past weekend to overamp things. Pretty far north with the boundary compared to the GFS.
  21. dj3
    Euro
  22. dj3
    Some of that is obviously sleet but it looks like hours 90-108 have all snow.
  23. dj3
    If it played out like that it would be a pretty rare progression for us and would leave quite a nice pack with staying power I'd imagine.
  24. dj3
    Bring this one home guys. I think we have a ways to go to get back to the hits models were showing 48 hours ago or so. I don't love the set up with cold chasing the precipitation and good agreement we are starting out in the warm sector. Although, I think last winter we had a similar set up where it did work out (Dec 1st?).
  25. dj3
    I kind of agree. Especially in a situation like this id rather the gradient be south of us.
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