Hoosier

For some comparsion at a couple select locations, the 1994 eclipse had 88-89% obscuration in Chicago and Indianapolis.

That seems a lot different than previous run. I read somewhere that they are considering reversing/making traffic all one way on some roads if there's a situation where it's cloudy somewhere and there's a last minute exodus of people toward a sunny location... not unlike a hurricane evacuation situation. This is not a life or death thing though so I wonder if that would actually occur.

mmm donuts http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Krispy-Kreme-going-dark-for-upcoming-solar-eclipse-439461903.html

Surprisingly there's a free site that offers it. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/total-cloud-coverage/20170821-1800z.html 12z run looks decent. I wish it would be less than 1% though haha

Models have cloud cover output maps. At the College of Dupage website, it's located under the Precipitation Products menu on the left side. Here is the 12z GFS at 1 pm central time on the 21st

Less than 10 days away now. Now is when I'll be checking almost every individual run to get an idea on trends. The 00z ECMWF cloud output product had about 10-30% cloud coverage in most of MO-IL-KY path at 1 pm on the 21st. The 6z GFS is less favorable, though even the Euro could be a concern if something is in the wrong place in those couple minutes.

The last few runs of the GFS are suggesting cloud/precip concerns in the Plains and/or Midwest. Obviously being 2 weeks out, it's too early to dig into in serious detail. I guess if I'm looking for any sort of takeaway, it would be that somebody in that massive stretch of land may be dealing with issues.

No idea. I only do weather boards.

I saw that the final few hotel rooms in Carbondale we're going for ~$500+ (I actually can't believe there was any vacancy).

Almost getting into the end of the GFS timeframe. What's being advertised at the very end of tonight's 00z run would cause some concern rolling forward... pretty stout ridge but the placement is not ideal... could be vulnerable to convective concerns on the northern edges. Fortunately this is a 16 day prog.

Some of the research being done during this eclipse http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/news/a27591/total-solar-eclipse-2017-science/

This is nice... various carriers will be deploying extra cell towers http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Technology/wireStory/cellphone-service-spotty-rural-eclipse-watchers-48933813

Well, Frank Reynolds called this 38 years in advance haha http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/solar-eclipse-abc-news-david-muir-1202512760/

^ To add to that, do not rely on technology like the internet and GPS to get to your viewing location. You never know if systems may be become overloaded. I will be bringing a paper map with the totality duration lines overlaid.

Question for someone with intimate knowledge of the models. Does NWP make any attempt to account for the loss of incoming sunlight during an eclipse and thus, the temperature decrease that commences shortly before totality? I know that it's pretty common to have temperature drops on the order of 5-15 degrees depending on time of day and other factors.

Question for dtk or someone else with intimate knowledge of the models. Does NWP make any attempt to account for the loss of incoming sunlight during an eclipse and thus, the temperature decrease that commences shortly before totality? I know that it's pretty common to have temperature drops on the order of 5-15 degrees depending on time of day and other factors.

Here's another cool map from greatamericaneclipse.com showing the paths of all total solar eclipses in the US since 1776.

This is interesting. Some uncertainty on the exact size of the sun. https://www.space.com/37611-solar-eclipse-2017-sun-bigger-than-we-think.html

The maximum duration of totality in the 2024 eclipse is just under 4 1/2 minutes, in Mexico. Areas near the center line in the US will have totality lasting over 3 minutes to, in some cases, just over 4 minutes.

Have been looking at some potential target locations in my favored zone (want to be as close to the center line as possible and not in the middle of nowhere, but not in a place with too many obstructions/artificial light). Seems like a lot of towns in the path are having special viewing areas and giving out tickets for that. How can you know exactly where you'll end up given potential weather issues?!

I'll admit the traffic has me concerned. It's the big question as we've never had something like this in the US in modern times with so much of the population being within driving distance of totality. Originally, I got my room near STL just in case the weather was looking bad in the MO/KY/IL area and I'd have to drive out to Kansas/Nebraska on the morning of the 21st, but I'm wondering if I should just head down the day before no matter what. With normal traffic, I could leave my house and get into the eastern MO/IL/western KY portion in about 5-6 hours, but it won't be normal.

Did you look for a hotel outside the path of totality? I was able to get one for a reasonable/normal rate about a mile outside the zone (near St. Louis). Like you said, a lot of stuff in the path is a higher price/already booked.

Too early? I wouldn't mind seeing a massive intense ridge in the area, as that would tend to be a high confidence low/no cloud pattern. Don't have it on that run though.

Boo. Though if you just want to see how dark it can get during the day, I have read that cloudy conditions will make the surroundings even darker during an eclipse, especially if there's also clouds on the horizon.

5 weeks from today. I hope we have weather like we're having around here today. Not a cloud in the sky. People like us are going to have an advantage over others. Not only will we be checking forecasts, but we can also dig into the models to get a sense of the pattern and how things can go wrong. For example, a progged MCS regime that ends up farther south than thought.