Hoosier

I thought Angry was gonna be all in on the arctic outbreak.

GFS still pretty chilly next week, though the last couple runs are dropping it in farther east.

October outsnowed November in Chicago, which has happened several times since records began. Here are the stats for those years and the resulting seasonal snowfall amounts. Year: Oct snow, Nov snow, Total 1913: 1.9", T, 28.2" 1923: 0.7", T, 27.6" 1929: 0.7", 0.1", 58.2" 1952: 3.0", T, 23.4" 1957: 1.9", 0.5", 20.0" 1967: 4.4", 1.2", 28.4" 1989: 6.3", 3.9", 33.8" 1992: 0.3", 0.2", 46.9" 2019: 4.6", 3.7", ??? This year has a head start on all of the years above with the exception of 1989, but overall, I wouldn't read a whole lot into this. Just throwing it out there.

ORD has 8.4". I think you are looking at only the November total but ORD also had the late October storm.

So not surprisingly given my location compared to yours, the snows have been much better timed with daylight. However temps have been a bit of an issue both times. The Halloween event was too warm to stick to most paved surfaces and the Veterans Day storm did eventually stick to paved surfaces but not at first and the overall total was small.

Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week. Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though.

I think this may be due to not having a stronger ENSO signal. When it's a stronger Nino or Nina, people can sort of play the odds. Hanging around neutral is a different ball game.

Lock it in, folks. Lock it in.

There were big storms there at the end of October and November in 1991. The first one was bigger though.

Yeah these early snow correlations don't really tell a whole lot, particularly the one I posted. Somebody posted about October snows not being a good sign for Chicago, but then when you extend it to snowiest starts by November 15 (the one I posted in Don's thread) it is much more of a mixed result.

Don S winter thoughts. Don't read if you like snowy winters

Thanks for your thoughts, Don. Chicago had its 2nd snowiest start to the season when looking at snow amounts through November 15. I ran the numbers on the 10 snowiest starts for Chicago (through Nov 15) and guess what, 5 years finished snowier than average and 5 had less snow than average. Given where ORD is at right now, it will likely be hard to hold them down in the low end of that range but certainly a mediocre season is not only conceivable, but well within the realm of possibility.

Warm holidays are the worst. Thankfully the Euro weeklies are pretty hit or miss that far out.

See my above post. Wow. Lol

Just waiting for the first "see, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter."

If you're in northern IL you look at this and think hey, maybe a decent snow on the way. Nope

Agree. Not warm in the means but looks like a table scraps pattern for much of the central/southern sub for a while. Not so unusual I guess for late November/early December.

Sad to watch the moisture coming out of Texas go poof

The revenge of Minneapolis.

I think it's always a concern in a progression like this that the snow threats will sort of skip over. Locally I am not expecting much for the next week or two (would love to be wrong about that). 2 snows have my seasonal total at 3.5"... above average to date but it feels a little underwhelming compared to what other areas in the region have received. I have to keep reminding myself that we aren't even into December yet.

Probably want less longitudinal distance between the Canadian low and the system emerging into the Plains if you want a farther south track. Compare where these features were on yesterday's 12z GFS and now.

Where'd everybody go?

The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right.

Handling of the features for early to midweek has changed on recent runs. There is more emphasis on a northern stream wave in the northern US/Canada which then allows for the subsequent energy to be somewhat suppressed, at least compared to previous runs which had it going through IA/WI. Here is Tuesday's Euro vs the Euro from today for comparison. It is an energetic pattern so it's hard to have much confidence in the details yet.

As far as the system this weekend, much of the uncertainty lies with the northern stream piece of energy and the timing of it and how it interacts with the closed low ejecting eastward. Assuming there is indeed an organized band of snow that materializes, thermal profiles look a bit cruddy. Cold enough to snow but should be of the wetter variety, especially during the daylight hours.