Hoosier

Tomorrow is the last day of the current stay at home order in Indiana. Normally we hear about it getting extended a few days in advance and Holcomb has been acting pretty coy about it, so signs seem to be pointing toward some kind of relaxation being announced tomorrow. Just how much of a relaxation is the question. Indianapolis mayor extended the city's stay at home until May 15, so we may be at the point where certain cities/areas of the state will have more restrictions than others.

At least 890 of the 2200 employees at the Tyson plant in Logansport, IN have tested positive. https://www.wishtv.com/news/nearly-900-at-tyson-foods-plant-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

I think we are pretty well screwed at this point. Even as things start opening up again, a lot of businesses aren't going to survive this.

So here we are on the last day of April. Considering the current death toll and still generally having 1500-2000+ deaths per day, it is getting harder to see how we avoid reaching 100k deaths by the end of May. Saw this model posted in another subforum. It assumes some relaxation in social distancing as time goes by, which is why deaths go up again in July. https://covid19-projections.com

The percent of the total population that has died in Sweden (not talking deaths divided by confirmed cases) is actually running higher than the US. I don't know if I'd call them the model. One thing mentioned in there was the long term care facilities. That has been an epic disaster in many countries. Very sad.

Link to the remdesivir story. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-drug-remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171 Not a knockout treatment but something is better than nothing.

Some positive news coming out about remdesivir. Shortened the duration of illness and apparently cut the mortality rate compared to placebo. Hopefully won't be taken as "omg we have the cure, everybody back to normal now" but a good step.

People going out more https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Quarantine-fatigue-continues-for-second-week-15232645.php

Not surprisingly the R0 has crept up in Germany since they eased restrictions https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/coronavirus-reproduction-rate-germany-1-081807374.html

The stay at home fatigue is really evident now. Obviously have a fair number of people wearing masks though.

There was some discussion about it in the SNE thread (good luck finding it with how long that thread is). Basically it's bad math.

Regarding Cass county. They are cracking down: Mayor Chris Martin has declared an executive order for Cass County that began at noon today. The announcement came during a joint press conference among representatives of the City of Logansport, Cass County Commissioners, the Cass County Health Department and Logansport Memorial Hospital that was held at McHale Performing Arts Center and streamed live starting at 11 a.m. Meanwhile, officials are still pouring over the latest data on the number of positive tests in Cass County for COVID-19. The Indiana State Department of Health's latest data shows 1,025 reported cases in Cass County, but officials fear that number will increase dramatically after complete results of tests taken at Tyson Food's Logansport plant are confirmed. The following directives go into effect under Martin's executive order, which County Commissioner's President Dr. Ralph Anderson confirmed will extend to all of Cass County: • Only one person per family will be allowed into shopping markets and other essential businesses that remain open. • All persons are asked to wear a mask covering their nose and mouth upon entering a business. Anderson also said that business owners may prohibit entrance of customers not wearing face masks into their establishments. • Children under 16 years of age are not allowed into any businesses. • No more than 2 people per 1,000 square feet of retail space are permitted at one time in an establishment. This number is capped at 125 people for businesses with more than 62,000 square feet of space. If the establishment has less than 5,000 square feet of retail space, up to five customers may be allowed inside at the same time. Anderson noted that businesses with an outside area that has its own payment processing may be considered two businesses for the purpose of calculating the acceptable number of patrons allowed at one time. • Drive-thru, curbside pickup and delivery food services will still be allowed to operate. • A person who intentionally, knowingly or recklessly violates the executive order commits a class B misdemeanor under Indiana code. • An increased law enforcement presence will monitor and assist in enforcing the orders. • The elderly and high-risk persons are strongly encouraged to avoid all public gatherings and minimize all travel to the maximum extent possible. • All previous order remain in effect. Logansport Memorial Hospital CEO Perry Gay said that the latest surge has the potential of overwhelming the hospital. "Our hospital has been preparing for this surge for weeks," Gay said. "However, with this surge in possible cases and the numbers that we are seeing, if we just saw 5-10 percent of those possible cases needing critical care, we would be overwhelmed. Our hospital is not equipped with enough staff or resources to care for numbers like this." Gay added that some non-COVID-19 patients may need to be sent elsewhere for treatment, should the hospital experience an overwhelming influx of patients. "As a result, we have worked with other facilities who stand ready to assist ... at this time, individuals with illnesses or injuries other than COVID-19 may be sent or transferred for care to hospitals in our surrounding counties." It is unclear whether any additional travel restrictions are being put in place. https://www.pharostribune.com/article_997d5d42-8898-11ea-917b-47f8282283a8.html

The Tyson plant is like the anti-where's Waldo

A lot of this can be attributed to the big outbreak at the Tyson plant in Cass county.

The positive hit rate on cases in Indiana has been really high the past few days... like well over 30%. The long term statewide average (since testing began) is around 19%

Multiple states said they had calls into 911 or state health departments regarding taking disinfectants for the virus. It is hard to imagine some people could be that stupid but I guess so.

IN has started providing presumptive covid-19 deaths on the state's dashboard. There have been 88 of those. They are not included in the official total, at least for now.

Not saying it's the reason, but we are in the timeframe when the potential "Easter bump" would start showing up. At least in slowing the decline if not causing a rate increase.

My county is nasty. 382 have been hospitalized out of about 1500 known cases.

Attn: Indiana people. I found a site that has statewide and county by county hospitalization data. https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/ Here's the chart for IN. Positive news is that the hospitalization curve appears to be flattening in recent days. But the discharges have basically flattened as well.

US should pass the 1 million mark either late tomorrow or on Monday. Actual number of course could be more like 10 million, 20 million... who knows?

Anecdotal but when I was out it almost looked like normal Saturday traffic. Based on traffic alone you wouldn't know anything is going on. Hard to say how much of it is people just taking a ride but it is in the low 40s and rainy, so not exactly ideal roll the windows down weather. I wonder if society is gradually becoming more comfortable with going out.

Quite a protest in Wisconsin.

This might end up being closer to reality than the updated version. Looks quite likely we'll be at/above 60k deaths on May 1.

As of today, Indiana has 44% ICU bed availability and 78% ventilator availability. That is pretty decent, and the concern about bed and ventilator availability if the outbreak went unchecked was the main driver of the lockdown. So if I were governor of Indiana, here's what I would do when the current stay at home expires on May 1. Open barbershops and salons, but by appointment only. Clean frequently and require everybody to wear a mask. Open gyms on a limited basis, based on seniority. People with the longest memberships can go, but nobody else. Clean frequently and encourage mask use (may get uncomfortable when exercising lol). Everything else that is closed, I would pretty much leave all of that closed for now. Maintain take out/drive thru/delivery only for restaurants. Do that for 1 month and then reevaluate. I don't think it's smart to open up like 10 sectors all at once, because the number of cases could quickly ramp up. I understand the temptation to just let herd immunity take over, but the numbers would really spike and threaten to overwhelm hospitals. Even if the hospitals could somehow handle the load in that scenario (very unlikely), I think there is value in trying to delay getting sick. While the hyped up treatments don't seem to be panning out very well so far, it is possible that some effective treatment is found prior to a potential vaccine.