Hoosier

More cases are being caught, but the virus is actually spreading more as well. Nationwide hospitalizations are up by 50% since the beginning of the month. The current hospitalizations are at about 3/4 of what they were in the summer peak, but we will fly past that mark at the rate we are going.

Illinois restaurants visited by police for defying state’s order against in-door dining NEW ATHENS, Ill. – Illinois bars and restaurants who are defying Governor J.B. Pritzker’s Wednesday order of no indoor dining are getting visits from police. A bar owner in New Athens says she’s had enough and is rebelling against the COVID restrictions. New Athens, Illinois in southern St. Clair County is a town of about 2,000 people who live for their independence and freedom; but then came the COVID restrictions. “You couldn’t go to bars, you can’t dance, you can’t congregate. First it was 10 people, then it was 50, then it was back to 10. Nobody really knows what to do,” said Karla Blades, owner of the Nail Bar. https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/illinois-restaurants-visited-by-police-for-defying-states-order-against-in-door-dining/

Yeah looks pretty nice. Can we get a legit severe setup at some point? Is that too much to ask?

When you game it out, it seems like it will be hard to avoid hitting that number in 2021. Obviously have some uncertainty on precisely how bad it will get this winter and if some places will have to go back into shutdowns to reduce the spread, but let's say the IHME projection of 400k by February is reasonably accurate. We aren't even through winter at that point. Vaccines should be out by then but still somewhat limited availability, less than perfect efficacy, and a healthy chunk of the public is skeptical and won't get one anyway. Situation improves late spring/early summer and then the question is whether we can avoid a repeat of what happened in the South in summer. Unfortunately I think a sort of best case scenario would be if we can delay hitting 500k until late next year, but it certainly could happen well before then.

Case of covid-19 and flu co-infection in California: https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/solano-county-confirms-first-flu-and-covid-19-co-infection/

Nice link showing various scenarios. Thanks.

I've been wondering about the impact that voting could have on spreading the virus. That is a bit of a tricky thing to figure out though. I early voted and was in and out. Everyone I saw was wearing a mask. The holiday gatherings are sort of like being in a restaurant or bar in that you have to take your mask off at some point. I question whether many people would wear a mask to their holiday gatherings to begin with.

IHME model updated. Even with "universal" mask use (which is considered 95%), it has between 1000-1300 deaths per day from November through January. And we are nowhere near 95% on a nationwide level. This is not to bash mask use whatsoever. It just shows what we're up against.

Said it before and I know it is a bit macabre, but I think we need to spike this as much as possible prior to Thanksgiving. Scare as many people as possible into not holding gatherings, especially larger ones.

Staring down the barrel of 100k cases. If it doesn't happen tomorrow, it will be by late next week.

If tomorrow follows the trend of other Fridays, it will be well over 90k tomorrow.

Maybe. Should be in the mid to upper 80,000s at least as several states have yet to report and some states do multiple data dumps per day (i.e. California)

This. Always good to look for the light at the end of the tunnel. Granted it's tough especially if you've lost your job or are struggling financially.

From the article about Regeneron's treatment: "Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said." ......... When it is released, won't it have to be administered in a hospital setting? I don't think you can pop a pill.

New high of over 3600 new cases in IN. Per capita it's like having 7,000 cases in Illinois or almost 12,000 in Florida. Also, ICU bed availability statewide has dropped into the 20s percent. The total number of ICU beds is less than it was in the spring though, so they should be able to add more if necessary.

Pritzker is banning indoor dining in Chicago and Mayor Lightfoot doesn't like it https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/rising-covid-19-rates-hospitalizations-in-chicago-hit-illinois-limit-as-most-regions-see-added-restrictions/amp/

We are actually running a little above the IHME projection... the model that has 2000 US deaths per day in late December. It had ~800 deaths per day right now, and the daily average from the past 7 days is over 800.

Fwiw, the New Orleans airport (KMSY) is west of the city. So stronger winds likely east of there.

It's fine to mention that the vast majority of covid deaths happen in people with preexisting conditions, but it's not fine to use it as a way to minimize things. We have a shit ton of people walking around with some kind of condition(s), and a person can live for many years or decades with preexisting conditions.

Pretty much

Zeta doing some last minute work. May get an eye passage right over New Orleans. Not everyday that the eye of a cat 2 (maybe even cat 3, who knows) passes over a sizable American city.

Yes. Thanks. But my question was because I was wondering if Zeta has the potential to match or outgust Katrina in New Orleans.

Anyone remember what the max gust was in New Orleans during Katrina? I know they were on the western end whereas Zeta is more of a bullseye.

Have a friend in Metairie, LA (who is currently recovering from covid ) who has lived there for about 5 years. If my memory is right, this may be the most significant storm to hit there in that timeframe... basically a direct hit.

I should mention that the 13 or 14 percent was on individuals tested. As you know they break it down into 2 categories on the dashboard... individuals tested and total tests performed.