Hoosier

CPC maps have a similar flavor to the CFS

Dry, you said?

It makes sense that this would be happening in areas that are getting into a dire situation, and there are quite a few states that fall into that category. The risk with doing that of course is that if you send somebody away and then they worsen and have to come back to the hospital, it might be too late to do much for them.

142 new deaths reported in Indiana. You can lose perspective in numbers so when adjusting for population, it would be like Illinois reporting about 270 deaths in a day.

Truth. Almost have a better chance of seeing Bigfoot.

This would be nice to know. We know it can happen, and it may start happening more often as more people become farther removed from their initial infection. It takes some work though to be sure that somebody was infected twice and not just testing positive from a remnant covid-19 infection.

I do wonder if that proportion of infections is the same (2x higher per 100,000 in 18-49) since October, or if that has started to shift at all. Could be that everybody is getting sick at higher rates now.

Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group. We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people.

^ all that being said, Indiana set a new Monday high in cases today, narrowly beating out last Monday.

The rate of increase in hospitalizations appears to be slowing down in Indiana, although they are still generally rising slowly. Want to see more data to be absolutely certain that the slowdown isn't due to reporting issues around Thanksgiving (on that note, notice what appears to be a "fake" dip around Thanksgiving). Also, even if the slowdown is real, we have to be aware of the possibility of a more dramatic increase coming later in December as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings. Numbers reported on last 7 days: 11/24: 3279 11/25: 3363 11/26: 3384 11/27: 3287 11/28: 3381 11/29: 3392 11/30: 3401

Given your well-known standards for a winter in Chicago, it was a pretty easy call to make.

I expect you will have cause to be in this thread a good amount in the next few months.

Someone in my niece's class has covid. Supposedly the last day that person was at school was the 18th. The kids in her class don't wear masks except when they are in the hallways. The class size is small and they are relatively spaced out and have plexiglass barriers. The 17th is when I was at my sister's/niece's house for a few hours. The sinus thing that I had started on the 21st but it seemed to pass just a couple days later.

Something I was thinking about is that the surveillance testing that has been going on at colleges/universities will largely be coming to an end for a while. I know some schools have already switched to remote learning for the rest of the semester. Not sure how noticeable of an impact this will have overall, but something to keep in mind.

I don't know. Will be interesting to see the recommendations that come out.

Interesting that the Pfizer vaccine has already been flown into O'Hare with EUA likely still a couple weeks away lol https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?fbclid=IwAR0nDQzsVrGJ0cbhk2XBnyYJhTnFnD3NYEYKyipyVPx8zS-ItRz7wyGjoJQ&amp

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December. Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January. I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot. There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that. Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US.

My fear is that we time it where the back half of Dec is worse than the first half. Hopefully not, because warm holidays suck.

GFS really goes nuts with the storm out east next weekend. Sub 960 mb...

Well, doesn't this look great? The temp map looks more like what you would expect in El Nino.

Gotta be the latter I'd think.

Anecdotal reports of tooth loss https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/health/covid-teeth-falling-out.amp.html

Keep in mind it would mean about 1 in 2.5 infections have been caught since March. Just doesn't smell right to me. We all remember early on how hard it was to get a test in most states, including Indiana. We certainly weren't like New York, but the virus was already here a fair amount in March/April. The image that OSU posted does show a pretty wide range of possible infection numbers.

The Indiana University Fairbanks School of Public Health has been doing an ongoing study of the prevalence of covid-19 in the state of Indiana. Their latest numbers really surprised me. As of November 20, they estimate that only 10.6% of the state has been infected. The reason this surprised me is that it would mean about 715,000 people have been infected, and we had about 280,000 confirmed cases on 11/20. So, it would seem to imply that since the start of the pandemic, testing in Indiana has successfully caught about 1 out of 2.5 cases (I understand the lag with testing and getting results, but just keeping it simple). That goes against basically everything I have read. I acknowledge that there is state by state variance on how many cases have been caught, but 1 out of 2.5 sounds like an awfully damn good success rate. I was wondering if I'm missing something and there's some word gaming, like does a confirmed case not always equal an infection, but I don't know. If the 10.6% is somehow right, and I have my doubts, it's bad news as the state has already had well over 5k deaths and vaccines are still weeks to months away.