Hoosier

Well, we've seen some outlandish model solutions for this one at times.  Obviously still plenty of uncertainty but there's enough of a signal for an impactful event.  At this time, it appears the southern half or so of the subforum is more favored, but we'll see how this trends in the coming days.

00z GFS continues with an impressive look for the storm next week.  CCB on the order of 65-75 kts.  Would certainly be a windy storm.  

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

 Do the ensembles keep southside over to DTW in play? 

Yes

18z GFS still has the storm in the sub, so I guess that's good.

Though lapse rates weaken overall with time on Sunday-Monday, do notice some pockets of decent lapse rates on Monday.

The HRRR gust output has severe/near severe criteria winds with the line all the way from Oklahoma to Indiana.

Getting a bit more interested in the area around where the triple point will be sliding through.  This would be just behind the activity earlier on Monday.

I'm sure the DC crowd likes the 12z Euro.  

Gonna be sad when Lucy pulls the football away.  

I think I had less than 12 hours of snowcover from last night's "event"

40 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Something's brewing next week? GEFS and Ukie seem to think so. 

Several GEFS members are jacked. 

We should at least have an anomalously deep system in the southern US.  What happens after that is up for grabs.

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I don’t know how much of an impact it has, or the validity, but I’ve heard urban areas create low level dry air and it take longer for storms to saturate the air column as a result. If that’s incorrect someone please correct me. 

All else being equal, urban areas often tend to have sonewhat lower dewpoints than suburban/rural areas outside of a city, but I haven't heard of it materially delaying precip onset.  I've actually heard some cases of the opposite, with cities causing enhanced precip there and immediately downstream.  

Nice pencil thin line on the HRRR.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

January 30/31, 2002 was a snow to ice storm that dropped over 9" of snow followed by very heavy freezing rain. It was an insane storm. For me this is the worst ice storm since that. I know for some of the northern suburbs they really got hit bad and April 2003. There was also a pretty big ice storm in March 1997. But the grand daddy seems to be March 1976. DTE keeps calling this the worst widespread ice storm in 50 years

That 2002 storm was good in a winter that wasn't so good (outside of lake belts).  I had like 8" of snow and a decent amount of sleet with minimal freezing rain.  Believe that is the storm that ORD received 4" of snow in 1 hour.

27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

1.3" to be exact.

KORD 250351Z 11003KT 3/4SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -SN BR BKN008 OVC018 M04/M07 A3049 RMK AO2 SLP335 SNINCR 1/1 P0004 T10441067

A sub 20" winter getting more precarious.

29 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

Explain your laugh, Baum, or I will be forced to sic trixie on your ass.

Please no.  Her invading SNE a while back was enough.

DVN did a little longer range discussion today

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

A pattern change occurred last week which put an anomalously
strong upper level high over the Pacific and a deep longwave trof
over the western CONUS. Analysis shows the Pacific upper high
maintaining through early March before breaking down around mid-
March in a potentially major pattern change.

The MJO is forecast to restrengthens next week with the signal
propagating into the Maritime Continent. This signal combined with
the western CONUS trof indicates a very dynamic weather pattern
for the mid latitudes across North America, and, the potential
for developing strong extratropical cyclones ejecting from the
western trof.

The MJO forecast is to have it move from phase 3 through phase 7
over the next three weeks. These phases have the potential for
warmer and wetter than normal across the Midwest, especially
during phases 5 and 6. However, the lingering weak La Nina will
likely cause some deconstructive interference.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicate
a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation through
March 10th. Temperature wise the outlooks are mixed which is
likely due to deconstructive interference with the weak La Nina.
The CPC 6-10 day outlook has a 33 percent chance of above normal
temperatures for the area but near normal temperatures for the 8
to 14 day outlook.

Week 3-4...March 11-24

The Climate Prediction Center outlook shows a 70-80 percent
chance of below normal temperatures. This signal indicates the
previous alluded to major pattern change occurring around mid-
March. As for precipitation, CPC has equal chances suggesting
there is interference occurring between the pattern change, the
MJO and the weak La Nina.

Solid wind event shaping up for downstate IL/IN etc (more favored the farther south of I-80 that you go) on Monday.  Less wind north as the pressure gradient will be weaker and by the time it tightens, the low will be weakening.

Not a bad GFS run for the sub.

A couple things.

The better instability (though still modest) is actually progged to trail behind the wind shift/main area of convection.  Would obviously be better if that were more aligned.

That being said, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that this may just be one semi-continuous severe threat from the Plains into our sub without really having any kind of long break.  Already mentioned the instability concerns but on the plus side, we'll have a deepening surface low through Sunday night and into Monday morning.  That should force the low levels to remain mixed well-enough and minimize any stable layer at the surface as the main line/broken line approaches a given area.  Also not dealing with any snowcover meltoff in the warm sector.  

Don't have sub-980 mb lows rolling into Iowa every day.  Anomalous setups don't guarantee anomalous results, but it sure raises the possibility.  So despite the timing being poor and issues with instability, I think there's a decent chance that some severe threat is maintained through overnight Sunday into Monday.

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit has only had 0.5" which also would be 2nd least snowy Feb if it holds. It's absolutely the other shoe dropping after an incredible run. 9 of the top 14 snowiest Febs have come since 2008 (records date to 1880)! The month does seem a little wintrier than that since the first week was blanketed in snow and we had the big ice storm. 

Can't find it now but remember when I made that post about February not bailing us out one of these years?  Who knew it would be this one.   

Most of the February low pressure records around the progged path of the early week system are from February 1902.  Generally, they are low-mid 970s.  There was a powerhouse system at the end of that month and into March.  I remember reading an amusing account that some guy in Indiana thought his barometer broke because he had never seen such a low pressure before. 

19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Dec 87 blizzard had a 979mb low near Kankakee and up towards your area IIRC.

I thought that one didn't get to 980 mb (or just below) until reaching the lake.  Sort of splitting hairs I guess.  Anyway, I was a very young kid at the time and have no memory of that storm.

I wonder what the long range HRRR/RAP will come up with for the Monday system.  Maybe a 968 mb low rolling into Iowa?

Was thinking about it and I personally can't recall seeing a sub 980 mb pressure here.  That tends to happen on the east coast, to the north of here, or out in the Plains.  Do recall low 980s a few times, which is what the models currently suggest for mby.

42 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

If we can avoid any snow accumulation the rest of the month, which seems likely, this will go down as the 2nd least snowy February on record in South Bend. We've had 0.3" of snow so far. The record is a Trace in 1998.

March 1998 had a little something.  One of my favorite 2nd tier type storms because of the surprise factor.

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It was the type of gradient where if you were on a given road, trees on one side were ice covered and the other side were not.

Cool

I've seen crazy things like that with LES.  One time I was on I-65 and it was snowing at a good clip in the field just east of the road with nothing in the field on the west side.  Another time I was heading into Porter county.  Roads were wet and then like flipping a switch, roads were suddenly snow covered in a good squall.