Rockem_sockem_connection

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I get what both of you are saying. But I think what he's saying is that the models don't "remember" what they predicted X number of cycles ago. They take in the data ingested for the latest cycle and run math calculations to spit out what it thinks the atmosphere will do. The perception of "trends" just there - but it's in the initialization of the models and our analysis of it...

That's what I'm saying ty for helping. It's just something I battle with myself. Like yes there's a trend we observe but I don't find it actually means anything. I mean we do this every winter we all know the deal lol

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend.
 

How’s Philly

Lol I'm kinda cracking myself up. Like you sit here and go 5 MILE SHIFT WEST and keep saying that each run til we run out of time? Lol are we supposed to pretend it's like a football game that ran outta time? Oh darn if we just had some more time those models would of shifted west two more times??? Hahaha it's a funny thought you gotta admit.

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models  

This isn't true. You can't perceive shifts as trends in the sense you're trying to. It's not like a sporting team trending in the right direction with some wins, making progress on making the playoffs. The models can and probably will come out at 0z taking away the 1-2' totals because again, trends don't actually excited in weather models - just the perception of trends. My two cents ty for listening 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

00z is where is real change happens. It takes one bad trend to undo 10 "better" trends

That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend 

3 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

No need to feed the troll 

I am not a troll. I am a person...tyia.

Everyone get their popcorn ready folks, the magic hour will soon be among us. We've currently got the best model showing a modest storm and the rest showing mega storms. Someone have to give! Stay tuned y'all!!!

4 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us.

I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you

This has huge bust all over it if we look at other events in somewhat recent history. Man I'm just gonna go work out, maybe run some errands. We'll evaluate at 0z.

18 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

A west jog would be nice IMBY, but i'll gladly take it as it stands now... 

Aww man the classic ... attitude thing. Cheer up buttercup, no need to have an edge

5 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

I’ll send pics…

love this low key flex. send all the poors pictures lol me too send em

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Set it on fire before you leave and file for the insurance money. Then you'll already be ahead of the game with the insurance claim and won't have to worry about 2 Ft of snow collapsing it. Problem solved.

That sounds more complicated. They already thought I was committing insurance fraud once when my mustang was the only one flooded on the street. Probably better off getting the neighbor a bottle of 15 yr and asking him to keep an eye out. 

It'll end up being a 4-8" storm though anyways, no biggie

Anyone have any suggestions for me here? I have one of those wood gazebos with the tin roof. It has a snow load capacity which wasn't much but we never really got a lot of snow since I put it up 3 years ago or so. Just wondering what I am supposed to do if we get 2 feet of snow while I am not home. 

Yeah I don't buy into that at all lol. Weenies get kept alive til 18z I guess.

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

4 days left - let us get a measly 25 mile shift west each run and we’re golden 

It's not a mileage shift here that's a problem. It's not a classic Miller A tracking 25 miles east off the coast lol. Lot more complex here

It's been a cold month I don't really need "stats" to tell me that. Way colder than last January but I guess some rogue 51 degree days brought the stats up. Problem with forecasting is no one except me uses feel and life experience for thinking about what has/is going to happen. Ain't everything revolve around a stat or computer model folks.

So the Euro looks great for snow but I don't it verifies. That models been out to lunch longer than Brandon lol I would pay more attention to the other ones. 

18z says NO.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm thinking you may want to reconsider that flight to FL Saturday. Things are changing quickly.

Hi Ralph,

I changed the flight to 9 AM on Friday instead a few hours ago. I think the setup has a lot of boom or bust potential still. I don't think most people like to be in the strike zone this far out that's why I kind of have doubts. I could see this thing going right OTS but better safe than sorry.

PS I have defended the trolls off your back in the MA forum. We will not stand for these attacks.

-RSC

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I for one am excited to have Ralph and others from Philly north come in our thread and tell us how great the model runs are looking

If you got a problem with Ralph you got a problem with me bud. I get to bust his chops, no one else. Careful.

-RSC

2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

12z UKIE still a fish storm FWIW... we toss

Cannot toss models you dislike the outcome on. We must weight every model fairly.

Too 'thread the needle' for the weekend - I am going to comfortably rule out anything major. Could be some flakes produced from it still.

@Ralph Wiggumwhat is the deal for a week from now? I have a flight on 1/29 out of PHL at 3:00 PM to go to FL. You need to hold this thing off til I leave.

-RSC

Rain on the river still in GloCo. WeatherNJ page stinks. If he hangs out here I don't apologize still. Never right.

Feels like it will not switch over here on the E side of PHL. No temp changes. 39 degrees.

RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Weather World with a bone chilling extended forecast through February 18, I hope they are wrong there's all these mild February calls

 

 

What are they looking at that we aren't?

I have spoken and so it shall be.

-RSC