MUWX

11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Not trying to challenge you. Just curious and for learning - 12z ICON looks like a pure rain event for dfw. Also there's might be a warmer trend going on. Maybe I'm reading it correctly? Thanks

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If your looking at the precipitation output, the icon only shows rain and snow. So it doesn’t pick up sleet or freezing rain. If you compare temps and precip maps, you get an better understanding of impacts. 

Canadian is a pretty solid sleet/ice storm for southern Missouri, followed by a pretty solid snow storm. 

Not a great sounding reader, but man, the icon is scary. Hopefully it’s sleet, but if it’s ice, that’s close to 2007. 

Brutally cold gfs run for mid missouri. 

26 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

The actual Euro run, just to come down to earth.

 

Do you have the ice maps? I would think there is some decent ice totals on the south side of the heavy snow. 

I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian. 

9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

That western Kansas band is nightmare fuel. A 5-10 mile wide band got hammered. I think one location for 27 inches, which is almost a state record. Outside of that bad, got substantially less. 

Somehow, I think I’m actually in a great spot. Got that foggy look outside, visibility under a mile. 
 

13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us.  09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy.  
They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot.  

They also mention thundersnow for NW AR

These 0z runs should be the first runs with it being fully sampled, correct? 

1 minute ago, Doramo said:

Whoopie do dah...We gonna get some sloppy rain/snow according to NWS 

Friday Night

Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Rain and snow showers before 2pm, then rain showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as 26. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Highly uncertain forecast down that way. Boom or bust potential, more so down there than anywhere else.

Tulsa may have just issued the smallest winter storm watch in NWS history. 

13 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

GEM is coming in now.  Let's see how bad it is.

Well it certainly isn’t good 

Well… that was fun while it lasted. 

Nam isn’t pretty but it’s not a total disaster. Dare I say…. It’s pretty close to what SGF has been calling for. 

I might have jinxed the entire area by saying that SGF should mention the possibility of higher impacts. 

12 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, I don't blame them. It's going to be an interesting system, that's for sure...

 

I cant blame them, but I think they would be well served to mention the possibility of higher impacts. 

Springfield definitely is not buying into the higher amounts. 

6 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yes it might just be the natural cynic in me but as I've seen it happen so many times before I think this weekends winter storm has huge bust potential. I remain cautiously optimistic. Yes all the models are starting to go bonkers in our favor but the system is still offshore. Once it gets sampled it could go either way. The next 24-48 hours will definitely tell the story.

One thing that may be working in our favor is that there was a recon mission off the west coast yesterday afternoon for research purposes and that data has been incorporated into the GFS at least. I know that data was included in last nights GFS. 

4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z Canadian going to drop it down western KS/OK into TX this run. Weaker than the GFS. Nails central and eastern Arkansas. 

Fairly substantial change from 12z. A step toward the GFS, it seems. 

26 minutes ago, JoMo said:

So, that was different on the 00z NAM. 

Seems like it was setting up to be a big hit for southwest mo…. Not that extrapolating the nam ever ends poorly. 

Springfield is starting to buy in on the threat it appears, prepare for it to start trending in the wrong direction now. 

Euro, NAM and Canadian are showing some light snow for SWMO later this week. Not much but better than nothing. 

27 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right. 

Models typically under do the cold air. Trend could continue but I am not sure we get much snow out of it regardless. Cold air is going to be fairly shallow for a while.  

Southwest Missouri would get screwed per the 18z GFS, probably means it’s locked in.